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canyonwalkerEarlier this week the CDC added several more countries to its list of "Level 4: COVID-19 Very High" travel risk. Example coverage: CNN.com article 13 Sep 2021. This came two weeks after Canada and several European countries were moved from Level 2 to Level 3. CNN.com article 30 Aug 2021. The full, latest lists are available at Covid-19 Travel Recommendations by Destination (CDC.gov link). On social media people in these countries have fired back, saying (cheekily) that they're glad because it will keep highly infectious Americans away from them. Because that's the thing— by the standards the CDC uses for rating the risks of Americans traveling to other countries, Americans should not travel to America.
The main criteria for Level 4: Very High, the CDC's highest risk category, is a new case rate of 500+ per 100,000 population, cumulatively, over the past 28 days. Source: How CDC Determines the Level for Covid-19 Health Notices at CDC.gov. This is a different metric than the incidence rate most commonly used domestically and internationally, average daily new cases per 100k over the past 7 days. But with some estimation it's not hard to align them.
My favorite source for checking Covid-19 trends in the US is the New York Times's Covid in the US: Latest Map and Case Count. Per their state level figures it looks like only one state, Connecticut, would not receive a "Level 4: Very High" travel risk rating if the CDC were using the same ratings within the US that it uses for foreign countries. One state. The other 49 states and the District of Columbia would have the US government warning slapped on them, "Avoid travel to this destination".
The main criteria for Level 4: Very High, the CDC's highest risk category, is a new case rate of 500+ per 100,000 population, cumulatively, over the past 28 days. Source: How CDC Determines the Level for Covid-19 Health Notices at CDC.gov. This is a different metric than the incidence rate most commonly used domestically and internationally, average daily new cases per 100k over the past 7 days. But with some estimation it's not hard to align them.
My favorite source for checking Covid-19 trends in the US is the New York Times's Covid in the US: Latest Map and Case Count. Per their state level figures it looks like only one state, Connecticut, would not receive a "Level 4: Very High" travel risk rating if the CDC were using the same ratings within the US that it uses for foreign countries. One state. The other 49 states and the District of Columbia would have the US government warning slapped on them, "Avoid travel to this destination".
