canyonwalker: Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. Travel! (planes trains and automobiles)
Every year around the new year I write a variety of retrospectives about the year just finished. Several of those are about travel, as that's the main theme of this blog and one of the things I most enjoy in life. My travel for 2025 is done for the year so I can post this summary a few days early.

Here are Five Things about my travel in 2025:

  1. I traveled 89 days and 72 nights in 2025. These figures are down slightly from 2024's tallies of 94 and 81. I/We just didn't get out as much as I/we wished. More on that below.

  2. Business travel was up.... Business travel made up 40% of my travel in 2025. That's double 2024's 20% share. Partly that's because I actually traveled on business more in 2025 than 2024. Though it wasn't for customers and trade shows. I mean, I did travel for a few each of those, but not significantly more than in recent years. The increase in 2025's business travel came from internal training meetings.

  3. ...And leisure travel was down. Business travel took a larger 40% share of my travel in 2025 not just because I had more days on the road for my job than in recent years but also because I spent fewer days traveling for fun. Why? Basically because being sick sucks. January was a loss because Hawk was sick for 6 weeks. October was a loss because she was recovering from foot surgery. Other than last Sunday's same-day mileage run December was a loss as well due to sickness. And the suckiness of being sick is going to pinch leisure travel this coming year, too, as Hawk has another surgery in late January. Aside from business travel I do solo, we likely won't go anywhere in January, February, or March.

  4. I flew 48,300 miles in 2025. That's down from nearly 55k in 2024 but is in line with my average over the past few years. Next year might be a lower mileage year with a few months of no leisure travel... but if I follow through on plans to retire early in the year I expect to travel a lot more.

  5. Bucket List items checked off: 1. It's been a slow year for progress on bucket lists. This year I didn't visit any new national parks. I'm still at 53/63. I finished visiting all 50 states and Washington, DC in 2024. I did visit two more countries this year, Italy and Spain, bringing my tally to 25 countries.


More 2025 retrospectives to come.

canyonwalker: Message in a bottle (blogging)
It's my 5 year anniversary of blogging on Dreamwidth. Oh, I've been blogging longer than that.... I started on LiveJournal over 14 years ago. (My first post was very in media res.) And I do still blog on LiveJournal. I cross-post (manually 😡) to both.

Having a shorter history on Dreamwidth makes it easier to pull recent statistics from there. For example, I know from my profile I've posted 3437 blogs in 5 years and 646 in the past 12 months. That's an average of 1.77 posts per day this past year, down from 1.92 last year. Yeah, this year has been a bit slower for me in terms of writing than years past. I've remarked on various reasons why. Those reasons range from dispiriting things happening (including just being sick) to engaging in fewer activities than normal because of an injury to just not even caring. 😰 But hey, enough melancholy.

One thing I enjoy using these anniversaries to do is checkpoint what I've written about. For starters, here are the Top Five topics I've written about in 5 years on Dreamwidth:

Top Topics, Past 5 Years
RankTagUses
1In Beauty I Walk537
2Planes Trains and Automobiles468
3TV279
4Waterfalls274
5Weather259


A few thoughts on this list:

  • The tags "In Beauty I Walk" and "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles" remain at the top of the list. That's appropriate as those are the foundational themes of my blog.

  • I feel a little sad that TV has rocketed up to #3. Last year it came in at #6. I have mixed feelings about it because I'm thinking, Didn't I have anything better than TV to write about? But on the other hand, I did watch more TV this year than in the past. Not that that's even a lot. More on that later...

  • Likewise, Weather seems like a lame thing to have on the leader board. I mean, people talking about the weather is kind of insipid. Blogging about it seems like the same. But the Weather tag got a lot of use this year because there were simply so many times that weather became a factor in something I wanted to do— sometimes as an opportunity, but most often an obstacle. And many times it was extreme weather I was writing about— which I call out is happening more frequently, and will continue to happen more frequently, because of human-caused climate change.

  • I am satisfied that Coronavirus has fallen off the list. Last year it ranked #4, by this year it dropped all the way to #9 on the list of what I've written about over the past 5 years.


Now let's look at what I wrote about in the past 12 months:

Top Ten Topics, Past 12 Months
RankTagUses
1Planes Trains and Automobiles123
2Job77
3In Beauty I Walk71
4 (tie)No Rest for the Wicked67
4 (tie)TV67
6Taking it Easy66
7Dining Out64
8Better Call Saul51
9Waterfalls50
10Sales47


A few remarks on Top Ten:

  • Planes, Trains, and Automobiles climbed from 2nd place to 1st this year while In Beauty I Walk dropped from 1st to 3rd. I'm not sure what this swapping of places indicates.... Perhaps that I spent more time flying/driving than actually walking the past 12 months. 😂

  • Job leapt up 8 places, from #10 to #2. That's not surprising as I had more than usual to say about my current job over the past 12 months— which included not just one but two troubling layoffs. Though I wasn't dismissed in either layoff, both prompted my thinking about when it'll be time for me to bow out.

  • Better Call Saul roared onto the Top 10 list this year, coming from zero up to 51 posts. That helped propel TV up to the #4 spot. I actually don't watch much TV overall. Other than finishing Breaking Bad and watching all of Better Call Saul I watched barely any TV the past 12 months.



Here's the Second Ten list. I'll detail it out to show some where some topics that dropped off last year's Top Ten list landed as well as some topics that almost made it this year.

Second 10 Top Topics, Past Year
RankTagUses
11Being Sick Sucks46
12Weather45
13Around Home41
14Family39
15Pool Life37
16Road Trip!36
17WTF?35
18Italy34
20 (tie)Canada32
20 (tie)D'oh!32


Some remarks on Topics #11-20:

  • Being Sick Sucks climbed 4 spots this year, to #11. If it weren't for all the problems at my job it would've made the top 10. 🤮 And that's sad because who wants to see being sick on a Top Ten list? But the tag got a lot of uses the past 12 months. In that time I got Covid, my wife suffered a month-plus of a stomach virus that might have been a case of Norovirus the doctors refused to test for, and just recently my wife had foot surgery. It's been a shit year, health-wise.

  • Weather actually dropped 8 slots this year, from #4 to #12. The sad thing is that's not because extreme weather and its harmful effects, driven largely by climate change, have lessened this year vs. last, but because with us Being Sick so often we've been less impacted by weather as we've sat inside. 😓 Notice also that Around Home made this year's list. Last year it didn't even place.

  • Two country tags made this list. Canada I've visited before but not for a few years. This year we spent an enjoyable week in Canada. And this year we visited Italy for the first time! (I also visited Spain for the first time but so briefly that its tag only got 1 or 2 uses.)


Finally, what happened to Coronavirus? Not only did it drop out of the Top Five Overall, but in the past 12 months I tagged it to a paltry 9 blogs, dropping it all the way down to a tie at 69th place for the year. I'd say "Good riddance!" except most of those 9 posts about Coronavirus were about me getting Covid-19 last December. 😳 So now hopefully it's good riddance!

canyonwalker: Message in a bottle (blogging)
October 2025 was my slowest month for blogging in years. A few quick stats:


  • I posted 34 journal entries in October

  • At a rate of just over 1.0 per day it's the slowest month I've had in... checks spreadsheet... 4½ years.

  • Yes, I keep a spreadsheet. 🤣

  • While I averaged one journal per day (actually 1.09/day) I didn't post one journal every day. In fact I missed nine days in October.

  • I thought that would be my biggest number of missed days in, like, 10 years, but it turns out it's also just 4½ years. Basically, April 2021 was an unusually slow month for me. (I figured that not by looking at a spreadsheet but by eyeballing my monthly blogging by year.)


Okay, those are the stats. But the real question is "why". Why did I experience such a slowdown in my writing in October— especially compared to the relatively high 70 journal entries I wrote just two months earlier in August? Metrics don't answer meaningful question such as that though they at least tell a person where/when to ask.

The answer in this case is simple. I just didn't want to. Oh, I had more things I could've written about. There were things that happened in October I could have written about. There were things in my backlog from months earlier I could have written about. But so much of the time I just didn't care.

Earlier this year I wrote about the power of the phrase DFC— as in, I Don't Fucking Care. Used positively, it's liberating. It's a way to Marie Kondo through your life, filtering out what's not worth your time or frustration.

The downside of DFC, or Kondo-ing, is that when you're disaffected or depressed, everything can start to fail the question, "Does this bring me joy?" And that's what happened to me in October. A combination of factors, from me feeling physically listless, to the changing season signalling an end to our summery outdoors activity, to Hawk's surgery and recovery basically grounding both of us for weeks, have aligned to leave me feeling like I just don't care about doing any of the few options left.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Napa Trade Show blog #4
On break in my room - Tue, 9 Sep 2025, 2pm.

Today the vendor part of the trade show kicked off. Yesterday was arrivals and was also a training day for people who wanted classes from the main sponsor. Plus a chance for our team to enjoy dinner together before everyone's worn out from long days.

I was up early today for internal meetings from 7 until 8:30 then walked over to the trade show at 9. It's so convenient being in the same hotel as the show— and that hotel not being a Las Vegas mega-resort with 3,000 rooms in multiple towers where getting from a sleeping room to a conference room entails a walk of a mile engulfed by clouds of 25 years of accumulated second-hand cigarette smoke.

Right now I'm back at my room taking a break after lunch. It's been a slow start at the booth today. Why slow? Frankly, because of poor planning by the conference organizer.

I got to the booth at 9 today... and it was pretty much dead. It was dead until after 12pm because the keynote speeches were running. We knew the keynotes would be going and they'd suck all the attention away from the vendor area. But the keynotes all ran long, gobbling up the breaks between sessions when attendees might come out to visit us. The physical layout of the show disfavored us, too.

Yes, it's important for a show to support its vendors. We vendors help sponsor the show! We're all paying money to be here. ...And I don't just mean spending money on salaries and travel costs. We're paying fees in the five figure range directly to the host company just to be here. That's in addition to what we pay the hotel for our rooms, the construction team for assembling the booth, and all the travel costs of the staff. In return conference organizers need to treat the vendors well.

What does it take to treat vendors well? Give the attendees reasons to visit us. Put ample break times in the schedule for attendees to browse the vendors exhibit area. Put the free snacks and drink in the vendor area, so there's extra reason to come by. Put the lunch and dinner either in the vendor area or on the other side of us, so attendees have to walk past us.

So far today these show organizers have not done the above. There have been no breaks for attendees to come visit us. Everyone's running long on presentations— one ran 30 minutes over— and they're just slotting the next speaker immediately after the previous. Then at lunch today, lunch was in the opposite direction from where we vendors are. People had no reason to walk past our displays. In fact, worse than no reason they specifically had reason not to go near us— because we were in the opposite direction and nobody had extra time because the schedule was still 15 minutes behind.

Now, you might scoff at supporting vendors at the show as the tail wagging the dog. People are here for the show, right? We're just the advertisers everyone would be happier ignoring. But like advertisers in commercial TV, we're paying to help support the show. We're here because we want the opportunity to talk to prospective customers. And we have metrics. We measure the number of contacts in the booth ("raw leads") as well as the quality of conversations ("qualified leads"). And when those metrics are low, especially the qualified leads score, we stop sponsoring the show.

This is our third year at this show. The past two years it was very productive for us. This year, unless things turn a massive 180° later today, may be our last at this show.

canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
When I wrote about age gap relationships yesterday one thing I wondered about is, what's normal? Well, I didn't just wonder. My cursory research turned up at least one reasonable study. "Reasonable", meaning scientifically rigorous and comprehensive. Simply polling people on social media is not rigorous. Even the journalist who basically polled people on social media in the article I wrote about yesterday admitted it doesn't represent reality.

An article I found from a few months ago in Psychology Today cites a recent study on the matter. "Age Gaps in Relationships: What Men and Women Prefer" (29 Jan 2025) cites a study published in December 2024 about the relative ages of partners at the start of relationships. The interesting finding is how the age gap preference changes over time and how it's different for men and women.

The study found that for people beginning a relationship in their early to mid 20s, men on average pair with a partner 3 years younger... and women on average pair with a partner 3 years older. There's a pleasing symmetry to that. And it also matches what I heard, as a matter of pop psychology, when I was in that age group many years ago. Plus, it matches my actual circumstance. My partner and I began our relationship in our early 20s, and I am 2 years older than her. We're right there near the average for our age and gender.

I'll include a summary table here for further illustration:

At age...Men pick a new partner...Women pick a new partner...
253 years younger3 years older
304 years younger2.5 years older
406 years younger1.5 years older
508 years younger0.5 years older
6010 years younger0.5 years younger
7012 years younger1.5 years younger
8014 years younger2.5 years younger


Another aspect that interesting about the study is that it showed men's preference for younger partners increased with age. At age 25, men starting new relationships picked partners 3 years young on average. The preference gap increased with each age increment, to an average of 10 years younger at 60 (60yo men picked 50yo partners on average) and 14 years by age 80. I don't have another rigorous dataset to compare this to but I will say it matches pop psychology I'm familiar with that says older men "date younger"— and noticeably so.

The third interesting aspect of the age gap study is that women, too, prefer younger and younger partners as they get older, though the gap in their preference is not as pronounced as it is with men. Women at age 25 prefer to "date older" with new partners, on average, 3 years older. This gap drops to near zero by age 50 and reverses to a "dating younger" in their 60s and beyond. The dating-younger gap for women is only a few years, though; not the 10-14 measured in men.


canyonwalker: Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. Travel! (planes trains and automobiles)
Every year around the new year I do a variety of retrospectives about the year just finished. Several of those are about travel, as that's the main theme of this blog and one of the things I most enjoy in life. My travel for 2024 ran right up to within a few hours of the New Year... when I returned from a great both fun and frustrating trip to Panama in the evening on December 31.

Here are Five Things about my travel in 2024:
  1. I traveled 94 days and 81 nights in 2024. At times this year I fretted I wasn't getting out enough, that I was traveling less than last year, but these overall figures just slightly edge out 2023's totals of 92/81. It's not at the level of the 115 days I traveled in 2019, the last full year pre-pandemic... though the difference is largely in work travel. More on that below.
  2. Over 80% of my travel was leisure. That's up even from last year's 75% and is a huge shift from 10-15 years ago when job travel was the majority of my time away from home. The shift in the ratio is due partly to fewer business trips and partly to making more leisure trips. There's a big element of intentionality in the latter; we've got to plan to spend time traveling. And generally we do, though not always as much as we'd like. For example, we didn't travel as much in the summer this past year as we usually do. It's not just that there was no big trip but there weren't even many weekend getaways. Partly that was due to weather patterns but also partly it was due to us being less aggressive about making trips happen for a few months.
  3. Business travel patterns have fundamentally changed. Business travel has only partly came back after Coronavirus. Trade shows are in full swing again. That's what most of my business travel this year involved. In-person visits to customers remain much slower than pre-pandemic. It's because people just don't work in the (same) office anymore. Despite widely publicized "RTO" (return to office) mandates, the kinds of customers I call on work in-office maybe one day a week. They prefer not to make a special trip into the office just to meet a vendor when they feel they can get everything they need in a videoconference. Moreover, with highly distributed teams being the norm, us traveling to any one customer site for a meeting means there are almost always key people who need to join remotely from across the country— or halfway around the world. Thus most meetings are virtual by customer request.
  4. I flew 54,559 miles in 2024. That's a step up from last year's 47,500 and the most since I've flown since 61k in 2017 though nowhere close to the 150k+/year I flew back in the late 00s/early 10s when I was a globe-trotting business traveler. Still, with most of this year's miles being leisure trips I'm content being slightly less of a globe trotter. Though as I shift into semi-retirement mode imminently I hope actually to do a bit more globe trotting— but now for leisure!
  5. Bucket List items checked off: 3 🪣✔. In the past 12 months I made progress on all three of my travel bucket lists. One of them I completed: visiting all 50 states and DC. I finished that up with our trip to Alaska in June. While in Alaska I also visited one more US national park, Kenai Fjords National Park, upping my count to 53/63. And I visited two more foreign countries, New Zealand and Panama, bringing my tally to 23 countries.
More 2024 retrospectives to come.

canyonwalker: Message in a bottle (blogging)
It's my 4 year anniversary of blogging on Dreamwidth. Oh, I've been blogging longer than that.... I started on LiveJournal over 13 years ago. And I do still blog on LiveJournal. I cross-post (manually 😡) to both.

Having a shorter history on Dreamwidth makes it easier to pull recent statistics from there. For example, I know from my profile I've posted 2791 blogs in 4 years and 702 in the past 12 months. That's an average of 1.92 posts per day this past year. I can also see which tags I've used most frequently in that time:

Top Topics, Past 4 Years
RankTagUses
1In Beauty I Walk466
2Planes Trains and Automobiles345
3Waterfalls224
4Coronavirus223
5Weather214
6TV212

There are a few changes among the top 5 compared to last year's ranking. "In Beauty I Walk" remains in the lead, and "Planes Trains And Automobiles" remains at #2. Coronavirus dropped a spot to #4 while Waterfalls climbed to #3. And Weather edged out TV for the #5 spot. (TV is now #6.)

I'm certainly happy to see Coronavirus recede into the rearview mirror. It looks like by this time next year, unless something goes horribly wrong, Coronavirus will disappear from the Top 5.

Weather seems like a lame thing to creep up into the leader board. I mean, people talking about the weather is kind of insipid. Blogging about it seems like the same. But the Weather tag got a lot of use this year because there were simply so many times that weather became a factor in something I wanted to do— sometimes an opportunity, but more often an obstacle. And many times it was extreme weather I was writing about— which I call out is happening more frequently, and will continue to happen more frequently, because of human-caused climate change.

Speaking of things dropping a spot— or maybe moving up a spot— let's take a look how tags ranked in the past 12 months, since the last time I reported these stats.


Top Topics, Past 12 Months
RankTagUses
1In Beauty I Walk112
2Planes Trains and Automobiles102
3New Zealand77
4Weather67
5Waterfalls65
6Dining Out60
7Australia56
8Taking it Easy55
9TV52
10Job51
11No Rest for the Wicked48
12Let's Go Shopping!43
13Memory Lane40
14Road Trip!37
15Being Sick Sucks36
16 (tie)Frequent Flyer Points34
16 (tie)Money34
18 (tie)Video33
18 (tie)Family33
20 (tie)Alaska31

The Top 10 list contains a number of the usual suspects but it does have a few new entries.

  • New Zealand came out of nowhere (well, technically, it came out of the Southern Hemisphere 😂) to notch 3rd place with 77 journal entries. That's all from a two-week trip we made to New Zealand in April. 77 blogs... and still I've got maybe a dozen more in the backlog!

  • Similarly, Australia stormed onto the list, landing at 7th place with 56 blog posts. Those are all from a trip we took in late December.

  • Job (my current job) isn't a new topic but I did write about it more this year than in past years, so it made the top 10, barely.

I enumerated the list out to 20 spots this year to show where some of last year's top 10 fell to as well as some that almost made it. Alas, even cutting the list at 20 leaves out some of the story. Three topics tied for 20th, and three more were only 1-2 posts short of making the list.

  • I show Alaska in spot 20 because it's an almost new tag. I finally got to Alaska this year!

  • Pool Life is technically tied for 20th. It's a new tag I created this year to describe the joy of lounging around the pool. I was inspired by a few weeks of hot weather and one stay-home vacation when we decided to spend a few hours at the pool every day.

  • D&D is a topic that finished just one post shy of making the top-20 list. I had hoped it'd make the list so I could write about why it made the list. It didn't, so I'll just tell you anyway. 🤣 Thanks to starting a new game late last year I more than tripled, in one year, the amount I've ever written about Dungeons & Dragons. Considering I ran a long-term game for many years in the past, that's telling. (What it tells is that I wasn't so inspired to write about my LT game.)

Finally, what happened to Coronavirus? On the basis of the past 12 months it not only dropped out of the top 5, it did not make the top 10 or even top 25. It was tagged to a paltry 11 blogs this year, coming in all the way down at 65th place. Good riddance.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Recently I've been writing about the use of metrics in the workplace, especially the pitfalls of using them poorly or simplistically. The pitfall I'm writing about in this chapter is how when a measure becomes the objective it ceases to be a good measure.

This is often called Goodhart's Law (Wikipedia link), based on the writings of a British economist who challenged UK economic policy in the 1970s:

"Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes."
-- Charles Goodhart, 1975
The adage was later generalized to other areas of policy, especially once stated in the less dry terms I used above. (That restatement was published by Marilyn Strathern in 1997.) But as it applies to the use of measures in business, or even in government policy, there's an earlier observation that states the problem even better, Campbell's Law:

"The more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor."
-- Donald T. Campbell, 1969
Campbell's formulation is a bit dry and academic, too, so let me offer my own restatement: When a system focuses on simple measures, there's risk people will game the system.

Gaming the system is what happened when salesperson "Missy" scheduled bullshit sales calls to earn bonuses and accolades, as I described in a previous blog. Her behavior was a corruption of what the company intended to achieve, which was to increase sales and reward people who contributed to that. Instead Missy contributed nothing to sales, and wasted other people's time in the process, and collected extra pay for it.

It's worth noting that not all instances of gaming the system are as harmful as Missy's. Sometimes employees game the system but only cheat themselves. I've seen plenty of instances in sales, for example, where employees are asked to complete a small bit of training and fake their way through it. This has often happened when pressure is applied through management. Managers are held to account for 100% of their staff completing the task. It becomes a statistic displayed on the screen at weekly meetings of the management team in front of senior executives. Managers then turn to their employees and say things like, "Just get the green check-mark" -- putting the emphasis on securing the indicator of success instead of absorbing the training and learning from it to actually become more successful at the job.

So, do witty sayings like Goodhart's Law and Campbell's Law mean that all metrics are doomed? Hardly. They're really arguments that poor or simplistic metrics, and excessive focus on single metrics as indicators of success, cannot replace comprehensive understanding of actual success.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Yesterday I started writing about metrics. Specifically, using metrics on people in the workplace. It's become a fact of modern life that we're constantly measured in what we do at work. So much of what we do is already managed through computer software, and modern computer software makes it trivial to collect— and report— metrics. But the challenge is that while metrics are historically easy to get, they're no easier than ever before to understand. And it turns out few people in business really understand them.

One big failure of metrics in business I saw was in my sales organization several years ago. A quantity metric without a corresponding quality metric is useless.

Here's what happened: The manager of business development representatives (BDRs) hired a hot-shot BDR, "Missy". Missy was way more successful in booking meetings for field sales reps than any other BDR. Booking those meetings was the job of a BDR. And she wasn't just a little better than the rest.... She blew them out of the water. She booked three times as many meetings as the next best rep on the team, a skilled and thorough person who'd been doing it for years.

Ah, but there was a catch.

The catch was that Missy's success record was basically bullshit. The meetings she booked were low quality. Half the time the prospective customer wouldn't even show up. Half of them time when they did show up, the field team was able to disqualify them in the first 5 minutes. Missy was supposed to be asking those basic qualification questions. She wasn't. She was making ridiculous promises to anyone who said they were okay taking a meeting with us, because she got paid on scheduling the meeting. She got paid even if it was a bullshit meeting.

Missy's boss, and her boss's boss, only looked at the metric of "How many meetings were booked". They didn't even have a metric for "What's the quality of these meetings?" While my team wasted time sitting in Missy's bullshit meetings, Missy got big bonuses and won accolades. A quantity metric without a corresponding quality metric is useless.

By the way, this idea isn't novel. One of the first workplace metrics I ever encountered was typing speed. It's measured in Words Per Minute (wpm). And there's a standardized definition of a word. It's 5 characters. But you can't just type sloppily to get a higher score on typing tests, because there's a penalty for mistakes. Every mistyped character is a 2 wpm penalty. Right there: a quality metric corresponding to a quantity metric. Leaders in modernizing the workplace understood that 70+ years ago. Yet it's a surprise to most business leaders today.


Metrics

Aug. 28th, 2024 01:56 pm
canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
I'm thinking again about metrics in the workplace. I'm specifically referring to metrics on human work. For example, "How many tasks did each person on the team complete last week?" "What's the average time for a person to do X?" "What percentage of their time is this person/this team spending on category Y?"

It's not a new thought, as I've dealt with business metrics for most of my career. I've even studied them in school as far back as the late 1980s. Plus, the idea of applying modern observation and statistics to how people do things in business dates back to the late 19th century. Metrics aren't exactly new.

But while metrics in business aren't new, often it sure does feel like everybody's just figuring them out for the first time. That's surprising to me because when I was learning about the science of process measurement in the 1980s, a lot of the pitfalls of collecting statistics on people's work were already known. They'd already been known of, and studied, for 50 years. But here we are 30+ years later and it seems 98% of everybody clamoring for metrics has no idea.

I figure the reason for that is that collecting metrics and viewing analytics reports is trivially easy now. So much of our work is managed through computer software. With the computer already in the loop, metrics fall out practically for free. Anyone can suddenly get reams of data and colorful charts. But what do those charts mean? What are the limits of usefulness, accuracy, and predictive power behind the colorful lines, boxes, and pie wedges? When metrics were kind of a specialty, you'd have a person educated in the field to set up, collect, and interpret the data. You'd have an expert with the numbers. Now any noob can get numbers, which means any noob can suddenly feel confident their novice opinion is correct because they've got data.
canyonwalker: Message in a bottle (blogging)
It's been kind of a busy couple months for blogging. I say kind of because while I've posted above my average for April and May there's a lot of stuff I didn't write (yet) because I didn't have time or energy (or both). Let me share a chart since the last time I posted one of those was 3 months ago.

Blogging Stats, Past 12 Months (Jun 2024)

Here are Five Things:

1) By the numbers, I posted 65 journals in May, 68 in April, and 46 in March. That's over 2/day in April and May. That's above even my stretch goal (2.0/day) but not record setting. As you can see in the chart above, there are 2 other months in the past year I've posted more... and that's just in the past year.

2) Travel drove my blogging, as usual. March was on the slower side because I didn't really go anywhere except for a day-trip or two. But heck, 5 of my 46 blogs in March were about future travel. 😂 In April we traveled to New Zealand for 2 weeks. In May we did 9 days in Baja California (Mexico) and Phoenix. Plus a few day-trips locally.

3) I'm still backlogged on New Zealand. Although I posted 56 blogs about NZ in April and another 11 in May I still haven't cleared my backlog from the trip. After coming home from the trip in late April I estimated I'd write 30 more blogs about New Zealand. Since then I've posted 20, including the 11 in May— of which 10 were from just one epic day. Does my previous estimate hold? Do I now have just 10 blogs left to go? Er, no. I think it's going to be bigger.

4) At least I'm not backlogged from Cabo and Phoenix. I put the NZ backlog on hold to keep that from piling up, too. I wrote 33 journal entries about 9 days on the road. And finished just 6 days after returning home.

5) The road ahead: MOAR travel! June's going to be another month for travel. We've got a few trips planned, though nothing gonzo like 2 weeks in New Zealand. The biggest trip will be 5 days in Alaska, my first time visiting that state.

canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
It's like a case of "Ask, and ye shall receive." After I posted earlier today about the increasing number of 401(k) millionaires and noted that that widely-reported news story only describes the top 2% of the population and doesn't say anything about how well the average American is saving for retirement, I see another article pop up in my newsfeed— this one also from Yahoo! Finance— about the median 401(k) balance (29 Feb 2024). This article shares data from another big brokerage, Vanguard, about the mean and median retirement account balances in 2023, broken down by age range:

AgeAverage
Account Balance
Median
Account Balance
Under 25$5,236$1,948
25-34$30,017$11,357
35-44$76,354$28,318
45-54$142,069$48,301
55-64$207,874$71,168
65+$232,710$70,620

* I've copied the numbers directly from the Yahoo! Finance article cited above and cleaned up the formatting with a table

These figures, especially the median figure, are much more insightful into how the average American is saving for retirement. (As an aside, it's not surprising that the mean average is much higher than the median. I've noted before that mean and median are often very different when discussing wealth.) The news is way different from any kind of champagne cork popping about how many 401(k) millionaires there are. In these numbers we see that ordinary Americans at or near retirement age lack even one-tenth that much wealth.


canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
There was good news in finance this week, at least for those fortunate enough to have a lot of it. Across 2023 more have a lot of it. Fidelity reported that the number of its customers who have retirement account balances of $1 million or more increased by 40% from a year earlier. Here's a chart of numbers published in this article in Yahoo! Finance (27 Feb 2024):

People with $1MM or more in retirement accounts at Fidelity (Yahoo! Finance, Feb 2024)

This isn't the first time Fidelity has published this kind of data, nor is it the first time multiple media outlets have excitedly reported it. (I chose Yahoo! Finance here because a) they made an insightful graph and b) they're not behind a paywall.) It's also not the first time I've written about these reports. When I wrote about Fidelity's report a year ago I was sour on the news coverage. Though that was because the articles I saw a year ago were poorly written, by authors who seemingly didn't understand what the data actually mean.

So, what do these numbers actually mean? What they are is a barometer of overall retirement account health. The number of people who have $1MM in one account, at one bank, went up 40% in a year. That's good news; don't get me wrong. But it's not an indicator of how many people overall have $1MM socked away for retirement, and it's not an indicator of how well the average person has saved for retirement.

I am part of this data set, BTW. I have a retirement account at Fidelity. Mine is one of those 45 million accounts mentioned in the citation in the chart above. But I am not one of the 401(k)/IRA millionaires in the headline.

Sad to say, I don't have $1MM in my Fidelity retirement account. I don't even have half that. And I'm better off, financially, than most Americans.

Part of that is that my retirement savings are split across multiple accounts at multiple financial institutions. Fidelity only sees a fraction of my portfolio. But even adding together all my retirement savings across 4 banks I'm still below $1MM currently. Will I get to a million eventually? Yes. I'm all but certain of that. But I'm not there yet.

So, what does it take for the approximately 813,000 people in Fidelity's report who are retirement millionaires? First, I'll just note that that's less than 2% of the total sample size. Those fortunate 2%, generally speaking, have been saving for many years to accumulate such balances. Fidelity says the average age of such accounts is 26 years. The account holders are mostly late career professionals or already retired. Fidelity says the average person in the set is 59 years old. They're likely also well paid— so they can afford to fund their 401(k)s aggressively— and benefited from things like employer matches. I say all this, BTW, as a well paid, late career professional who has saved aggressively— and isn't there yet. Like I said, I'm better off than most... but I'm not the top 2%.

canyonwalker: Message in a bottle (blogging)
It's been a while since I've checked in on stats about my blogging. I track metrics mostly out of curiosity but also because long ago I set goals and I like to see how I'm doing compared to my own predictions/expectations.

One thing about setting goals is that I rarely set just a goal. I set a multiplicity of goals. Sometimes it's based on multiple time intervals, like "In 3 months", "In 6 months", and "In 12-18 months". Other times it's a bracket of expectations; low, medium, and high. I used a bracket for my blogging goals:

  • Minimum: Blog at least once a day
  • Target: Average 1.5 blogs/day
  • Stretch: Average 2 blogs/day

How have I been doing recently? Let me start with a chart since I haven't shared one of these since last July.

My recent blogging stats through February 2024

The chart shows the average daily number of blogs, month by month for the past 14 months.

As you can see from the chart I've been well above my minimum goal of 1/day the whole time. ...Well, if you read the goal as averaging 1/day I'm well above it. What the chart doesn't show is whether I actually blogged every day within a given month. A glance at my monthly table of contents for February shows that I missed 2 days this past month. Those were because of my bouts with sickness— yes, bouts, plural— when I just didn't feel like writing.

You can see in the chart I'm also steadily above my middle target of 1.5/day. A few months, including February weren't far above that mark, while others were. I've beaten my stretch goal of 2/day half the time— 7 out of the past 14 months.

What makes one month busier for blogging than another? Mainly travel, as I've noted before. Last September my gonzo tally of 84 posts (2.8/day average) was because of not one but two adventuring trips. In January I came close to the 2/day average on catching up with blogs from our fantastic trip to Australia in late December. In February I haven't traveled much; just a business trip, and business rarely inspires as many blogs as adventure. Thus it's been a slower month.


canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
It's my 3 year anniversary of blogging on Dreamwidth. Oh, I've been blogging longer than that.... I started on LiveJournal over 12 years ago. And I do still blog on LiveJournal. I cross-post (manually 😡) to both.

Having a shorter history on Dreamwidth makes it easier to pull recent statistics from there. For example, I know from my profile I've posted 2089 blogs in 3 years and 768 in the past 12 months. That's an average of 2.1 posts per day this past year (1.9 over 3 years). I can also see which tags I've used most frequently in that time:

Most Used Tags, Past 3 Years
Rank Tag Uses
1 In Beauty I Walk 354
2 Planes Trains and Automobiles 241
3 Coronavirus 212
4 TV 160
5 Waterfalls 159


What does it mean that these tags are the top 5? Well, first, I'm happy that "In Beauty I Walk" remains my most used tag. It's the tag I use with all my posts about hiking. It's also my all-time top tag from 12+ years of blogging.

I'm happy, as well, to see "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles", about the trials and tribulations of travel (the name's an obvious reference to the classic 1987 Steve Martin/John Candy comedy) rise to the #2 spot. Along with that goes Coronavirus dropping to #3, and I'm happy about that, too. Good riddance!

Notice, as well, that a new tag has pushed its way into the Top 5: Waterfalls! Indeed I have written a lot about waterfalls in the past year. That shows up when I filter tag usage by the past 12 months:

Most Used Tags, Past 12 Months
Rank Tag Uses
1 In Beauty I Walk 129
2 Planes Trains and Automobiles 94
3 Waterfalls 78
4 No Rest for the Wicked 63
5 Weather 62
6 TV 51
7 Politics 49
8 Taking it Easy 48
9 SF Bay Area 46
10 Current Events 44


Waterfalls was my #3 tag this past year with a whopping 76 uses. Yes, we've visited a lot of waterfalls!

No Rest for the Wicked nudged up into the Top 5 this year. It even nudged out Weather to reach #4. That aligns as No Rest for the Wicked is my #4 tag over my full history of blogging.

I enumerated this table out to 10 places to show what happened to some of the other tags. You can see that while TV dropped out of the top 5 for the year, it didn't drop far. It came in 6th. My TV watching is down this year from the year before, when I watched the whole Game of Thrones series. Earlier this year I did watch a few miniseries and the current season of various shows, which is how I found 51 things to write about. Though even that seems like a long time ago as I've barely watched any TV the past 6 months.

What happened to Coronavirus? On the basis of the past 12 months it not only dropped out of the top 5, it did not make the top 10 or even top 25. It came in at 40th place, in a 3-way tie with Beer Tasting and Family, each with 20 blogs.

canyonwalker: Driving on the beach at Oceano Dunes (4x4)
It's time to get our Nissan Xterra 4x4 smogged. In California all vehicles have to pass an air pollution, aka smog, check every 2 years starting at 8 years of service. (There's an exemption for cars produced before 1976.) Our Xterra is now almost 12 years old. I drove it to a test station today.

Smog Check: Passed (Aug 2021)

Unlike last time (2 years ago) there was no drama this time. The test was done in about 5 minutes. We passed on the first try. I've reused the pic from 2 years ago, though. 😅

Our Xterra turns 12— that's the anniversary of our purchase, anyway— in August. Currently the car has just shy of 120,000 miles on the odometer. It'll be a little over 120k by the time the anniversary day rolls around.

10k miles per year (120k ÷ 10 years) is not a lot on average. Federal Highway Administration statistics suggest the average car is driven about 14,300 miles a year. Sure, many vehicles in the US are driven way less than that, including way less than our 10k. But those are typically cars that are driven only on occasion. They're third cars, collector cars, recreational vehicles, cars owned by people who live in cities and rely mostly on transit, etc. Our Xterra is a daily driver. It's just that with mostly remote work for 7 of the past 8 years I haven't logged many commuting miles. Indeed, our mileage in recent years is below the car's 10k lifetime average. In the past 2 years we've driven it only about 15k.

canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
Today marks a year since the US Supreme Court's Dobbs decision throwing out the federal legalization of abortion decided in 1973's landmark Roe v. Wade case. A year later, where are we?

Not unpredictably, many states in the US passed abortion restrictions. 14 states now ban abortion entirely or with severe restrictions, and 6 more have gestational limits that make abortion unavailable by the time many women realize they're pregnant, as this CNN article (updated 26 May 2023) shows. Note the figures would be higher but some states' high courts have struck down bans. For the 25 million women and girls of reproductive age living in these states (NARAL estimate, 10 Feb 2023), the end of the Pro-Choice era is the beginning of a new No-Choice era. ...Or at least a choice that has been taken away from women and girls age 12-44 by the overwhelmingly older, male legislators in these states who clearly know better.

It's interesting, as a counterpoint to what old-white-male legislatures are doing, that in the 6 conservative states where abortion was literally on the ballot in the last year— i.e., where proposed abortion restrictions were put to voters in ballot referendums— new restrictions lost in all 6.

One of the insidious things about limiting access to reproductive care is that you don't have to ban abortion outright to make it effectively unavailable. In many states where it's still legal but with heavy restrictions, a large number of clinics that used to provide abortion care have closed down. Doctors and clinics find the legal environment too hostile, and the greatly reduced demand for legal care makes it economically unviable to continue. This NPR article (21 June 2023) shows an interesting heat map of proximity to abortion access. Researchers who created the map found that one a year ago the average American lived 25 miles from an abortion provider, while today that figure is 86 miles.

Today women are traveling farther for abortions than they've had to for 50 years. One interesting wrinkle of people crossing state lines now for care is that Florida, a GOP dominated state that is enacting tough restrictions, has actually seen a big spike in numbers of abortions performed. This Politico article (24 June 2024) shows that Florida has seen the largest increase of any state. I'd say, "Suck on that, DeSantis," except that his 6-week abortion ban currently tied up in court may well be upheld.

canyonwalker: Message in a bottle (blogging)
This month I've set a new blogging record for myself. I posted a whopping 84 entries in May, a rate of just over 2.7 per day. That eclipses my previous record tally of 81 in August '22 and edges out my old posts-per-day record of 2.67 in September '20.

A few reflections on this 84 post blitz, in the form of Five Things:

  • As usual (for when I blog heavily) much of it was driven by travel. Two-thirds of my posts were related to trips I took in May... or was catching up on from April.

  • Yes, May was a gonzo month for travel. I came off a big, triple-jump trip at the end of April and had four more trips this month. Yes, I'm tired from all the travel. Also yes, I want to go out again soon because the prospect of working from my desk for several weeks seems mind numbing. 😰

  • Posting an average of nearly 3 times a day takes planning. On days when I posted 3 or even 4 journals I had written a lot of the material ahead of time, often the day before but sometimes more. For example, I started writing this post 5 days ago.

  • Writing posts in advance is easy on LiveJournal but not on Dreamwidth because Dreamwidth doesn't support scheduled posts. I still had to click 'Post' every time. That's a nuisance. It makes it hard to spread out posts across the day. I try to avoid posting them too close together in time but sometimes it's unavoidable.

  • In terms of most used tags, coronavirus still holds the #2 spot on Dreamwidth (2.5 years of history) and a distant #3 in my fuller, 10+ year history on LiveJournal. Though with this month's strong return to traveling vs. thinking about disease, Coronavirus could soon drop a notch in both rankings. We can only hope it continues to fade into the distance in the rearview mirror.



canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
What's in a number? In the case of a telephone number, a lot. The number corresponds not to just one particular line, but the area code and branch number (the first three digits after the area code) also tell us where that line is based. Now that mobile phones on nationwide networks are commonplace, the number's less telling about where the person at that number lives, though it's still true for landlines. Buried within some area codes is a bit of additional lore. Everyone knows that area codes correspond to certain parts of a state, or in some cases a particular metropolitan area. The original area codes, those established in 1947, also told you how populous your area was.

Rotary phone from circa 1960When area codes were first established in 1947, dialing a phone worked by spinning a rotary wheel, or dial. That's where the whole verb of "dialing" a phone comes from! You'd spin the wheel one direction with your finger, using guide slots for each particular number. After each spin a spring would spin the dial back, transmitting an electrical pulse across the phone line as each detent was passed. So a 1 was 1 pulse, a 2 was 2 pulses, etc. Zero, all the way around the dial, was 10 pulses.

Because turning the wheel took time, and especially the phone signalling the evenly-spaced pulses took time, designers of the first area code system optimized it to minimize time spent dialing. They assigned the shortest area codes to the most populated areas.

"What's a 'short' area code?" you might ask. "They're all three numbers." Yes, they're all three numbers, but the issue is how many pulses were required to transmit those numbers. 212, an area code for New York City, is 5 pulses (2+1+2=5).

There were additional constraints on the original set of area codes. The first digit had to be 2-9. The second digit had to be 0 or 1. (That was because 0 and 1 weren't used in any branch numbers up to that point.) The third digit could be 2-9 if the middle digit was 1, or 1-9 if the middle digit was 0. Thus the fastest number assignable was 212, which was assigned to New York City.

Here's a map of the original area codes in 1947:

North American Numbering Plan, 1947 (courtesy of Wikipedia)
Image courtesy of Wikipedia

So, what were the most populated cities/area in 1947, as indicated by area codes?

# pulsesArea Code(s)City / Region
5212New York City
6213
312
Los Angeles, San Diego, Southern California
Chicago & suburbs
7214
313
412
Dallas & Northeast Texas
Detroit & suburbs
Pittsburgh & southwestern Pennsylvania
8215
314
413
512
Philadelphia
St. Louis & eastern Missouri
Western Massachusetts
Austin, San Antonio, Southern Texas

What's interesting about this is the way cities ranked by population in 1947 is different from today. The biggest 3 cities then are the same now— New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Each now has multiple area codes. Southern California has grown so much that 213 is now specific to part Los Angeles instead of covering the whole region. Orange County and San Diego have multiple area codes of their own. Even San Bernardino County has two area codes, including 909, the "last" of the original area code system.

What about the others? Well, if the list were being made today, Dallas would still be fourth on the list, rating an area code like 214, but Houston and Washington, DC would have jumped up into the slots alongside it with 7-pulse area codes. (Note, I'm going by rank of metropolitan area population, not city population.) Detroit would drop two categories as it's now the 14th largest metro area. Pittsburgh, now the 27th largest metro, would drop several boxes.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
A few news organizations this week have picked up the story that smoking rates have dropped in the US. The source of the story is the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) from 5/5/23. The MMWR is a fairly wonky weekly report. It sport no pretty charts or infographics. It's fully of stuffy, stilted language. The references it cites are research papers or abstracts that are even harder to read. But the MMWR can't be ignored because it's where important health news breaks. For example, it's where national awareness of AIDS started 40 years ago.

Alas the good news on smoking is not earth shattering. Rates are down only very slightly— and that's for smoking cigarettes. Use of e-cigarettes actually increased. And the "new" data reported are from 2021. Still, it's interesting to see what the picture of smoking in the US is. Here are Five Things:

  1. Overall the use of any tobacco product (include e-cigs) is 18.7%. Use of lighted tobacco products (cigs, cigars, etc.) is 14.5%.

  2. The breakdown by sex is startling. Tobacco use is far more prevalent among men than women. Use of any tobacco product is 24.1% for men, 13.6% for women. Lighted tobacco use is 18.2% of men, 11.1% of women.

  3. Older adults seem more likely to smoke than younger adults... though some of that could be that the smoking age was increased to 21 by federal law a few years ago. And among seniors (age 65+) the rates are basically half those of middle-age adults.

  4. Smoking tracks inversely with education level. Those with only a high school diploma or GED are 3-4x as likely to smoke as those with a post-graduate degree. (This is not at all surprising to me.)

  5. Per a separate report linked in the MMWR that breaks out smoking rates by state California remains the second least smoky state in the US. Our rate of 11.2% is beaten only by Utah's 9%. Go Mormons! The smokiest state is West Virginia, at 25.2%. Note: these state level numbers are from 2018.

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