canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
Two weeks ago I wrote about filing my taxes and remarked that my effective federal tax rate for 2024 was 19%. I noted that's a lot lower than many people think their taxes are— not because my rate is low, but because most people way overestimate their tax rate because they don't understand how income tax works. And I don't mean misunderstanding the intricacies of complex tax situations; I'm talking about completely failing to understand the basics of how tax brackets work. And that includes a lot of people I've met in school and through work—intelligent people, people who attended highly competitive schools, people who've earned STEM degrees, people who are professionally employed and well paid.

Let me illustrate this through an example or two. Let's say Alice earns a gross pay of $120,000 a year. That's reasonably good money, BTW. It's just over twice the 2024 US median individual income of $59,228 (per the Bureau of Labor Statistics).

So, what's Alice's tax rate? Well, let's start by looking at the tax brackets for 2024:

Tax brackets 2024 (source: IRS)

This table is straight from the IRS, at Federal income tax rates and brackets.

You might look at the table and say, "Ah, Alice's tax rate is 24%"— because her $120k/yr is in the 24% tax bracket. If that's your conclusion, you're wrong— twice.

Of course, it could be worse. You could be like a professional colleague, "Brian", who complained to me that his federal tax rate is 50%. He didn't even look at an actual chart like this; he just repeated a bullshit number from a political bellyacher who tells lies on his radio program/podcast every day. 🙄

Okay, but why is Alice's "I pay 24%" estimate wrong? Twice?

First, it's wrong because tax brackets are graduated. If you're "in" in the 24% bracket, you're not paying 24% on everything, just on the portion of your income over the threshold for the 24% bracket. Parts of your income are taxed at the lower bracket rates of 22%, 12%, and 10%.

Second, Alice doesn't actually pay 24% on anything— because she's not actually in the 24% bracket! That's because there's an effective bracket of zero percent that's not indicated in the table above. Pay careful attention that the table is indexing taxable income— and taxable is not the same as gross. Two common deductions ordinary taxpayers enjoy are the standard deduction and a 401(k) deduction. For 2024 the standard deduction was $14,600. And let's say Alice put a modest 6% of her gross income, or $7,200, into her 401(k). Together these reduce her taxable income to $98,200. Alice is in the 22% tax bracket!

Now that we have Alice's taxable income, $98,200, we can figure her tax. No, it's not $98,200 x 0.22 = $21,604. Remember, the rates are graduated. She pays 10% on the first $11,600 out of $98,200, 12% on the next $35,550, etc. Alice's tax bill on her $98,200 taxable income works out to $16,657.

Alice's tax bill is $16,657. On a gross income of $120k. Thus her overall federal income tax rate is 13.9%.


There are other taxes, of course. Assuming Alice's income is all from wages, it's subject to Social Security and Medicare taxes. Those would tally $9,180 in this example. Combining that with her federal income tax brings her total tax paid to Uncle Sam to 21.5%. But even that is less than half of Brian thinks she's paying.

canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
I saw a news article today about moral panic over BNPL. Apparently discussions have exploded on social media recently about people buying tickets for SXSW— the annual South by Southwest music/film/pop tech festival in Austin— using Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services. The tenor of the discussions, which are really more like opposing rants, seems to be  Kids These Days are being fooled into spending money they don't have on things they don't need vs. Old Fogeys who can't open their email without downloading at least 3 viruses. That prompted me to think, What is BNPL— and is it good or bad?

I've been vaguely aware of Buy Now, Pay Later schemes as a way of buying things online for a while now. I say vaguely because I know they're out there but I've never looked into them. And yes, lurking within my terminology is a value judgment. I've thought of them as them schemes because I've been suspicious from the start that they're come-ons that snooker uneducated customers into overpaying, in the form of high interest rates and service charges, on luxuries they maybe shouldn't be buying in the first place. But it's not just stuff like travel and pricey concert tickets; nowadays even DoorDash offers BNPL. If you can't afford a Chipotle burrito without financing it, maybe you shouldn't be eating out so much!

Okay, so what is BNPL? It's micro-credit. When you go to purchase something online, instead of charging it to a credit card, you can charge it on a BNPL plan. There are lots of fintech (financial technology) companies out there— many startups, but also bigger companies now— that offer these short-term loans and are integrated into various e-commerce sites. You go to checkout, you see the BNPL offers, and maybe you pick one of those instead of entering a credit card number. BNPL sets up a small loan specific to the thing you're buying. The merchant gets paid right away, your item ships right away, and you pay for it in installments.

See? Put that way, BNPL is not so foreign. It's kind of like a credit card. But it doesn't require opening a credit card in advance. This makes it accessible to the "under-banked": the socioeconomic group of people who find it hard to use banks or who are under-served or rejected by banks. The modern technology and interface for setting it up BNPL in a way that's way more familiar to younger generations, so there's a definite age gap involved in "Wow, BNPL is great!" vs. "What's this new-fangled thing that's trying to steal my money?"

Okay, but is it stealing anyone's money? Part of my initial suspicion about BNPL was that it seemed to good to be true. Companies have to make their money somehow. How does BNPL earn money? In particular, are they like another credit provider for the under-banked— payday lenders, who charge outrageous interest rates and fees?

A bit of research shows that BNPL generally does not charge high interest rates. In fact it seems that a lot of offers extend short-term credit to buyers for free. For example, a customer purchasing a $1,000 plane ticket may be offered a plan to pay $250 now with another $250 due each of the next 3 months. BNPL makes its money, as credit card companies do, by charging the merchants a fee. And, also like credit card companies, they make money by charging fees to the borrower if they miss any of their payments. If you're a few days late with one of those $250 installments, you may find all your remaining installments going up to $260— plus a $7 late fee.

A lot of the moral panic around BNPL is that it encourages people to overspend. I'll just point out, that's been a concern with credit cards for decades, too. I remember when I was a kid watching a family TV show in reruns, a well known older show that was in Black-and-White, where in one episode the teenage characters were getting themselves in all kinds of trouble because one of them had a new credit card and could not understand that he still had to pay for things, eventually. "Really, the moral of this TV show is 'People Are Too Stupid To Understand Credit Cards?'" I thought to myself. And I was a pre-teen then! The point is, what was a moral panic of 1960 seemed foolish by the 1980s. Similarly, much of today's hand-wringing about BNPL seems like people choosing to be frightened by a new technology they're unable or unwilling to understand.

But that said, it does seem wrong that you can finance a burrito on DoorDash.

canyonwalker: Uh-oh, physics (Wile E. Coyote)
I've written many times about the credit card game (aka What's In Your Wallet?) and how it's played. Open an account with an offer for a significant sign-up bonus (SUB), meet the spending requirement to earn the SUB, then consider closing the account after 12 months if the projected value without the SUB doesn't significantly out-earn the annual fee. Well, last night I got a credit card without following that game plan. I signed up for a card with a whopping $550 annual fee and no SUB.

WTAF? you might wonder. Isn't that against everything I write about on this topic? Well, yes, but also no. It's a calculated risk I've taken.

Hilton Honors credit card by American ExpressThe card is the Hilton Honors American Express Aspire. And it's not technically a card I've opened; it's a card I upgraded to from my present card. Plus, it's a level of card I have experience with. I canceled one last June after owning it for 4 years.

Embedded within my rationale for canceling it last year is my reason for reopening it now. I canceled because I thought I could finagle another offer to this card, or the mid-tier card below it. Alas, in the past year Amex tightened up its policies to block card game-players like me from scooping up repeated SUBs. I looked carefully at the other benefits the card offers and decided that even without a big SUB, I could make the card worthwhile. Maybe.

The "maybe" is because not all of the card's benefits are guaranteed. A big one is the value of Diamond status with Hilton Hotels. Yes, having status is guaranteed, but what I'll get for that status is not. For example, will I get an appreciable upgrade at a snazzy hotel? I'm not sure. But I've got two stays at snazzy hotels planned for next month— on our trip to Italy— and my spouse and I decided to take the risk.

There's more to the calculation than "Pay $550 in hopes of some upgrades," of course. A $550/year premium card comes with premium benefits. There are a few cash-back-for-specific-travel-spend offers I expect to hit in the next year. Plus there's an annual free night certificate. Recall that last year we used two of those certs at the phenomenal Waldorf Astoria Pedregal in Los Cabos.

Another piece of the calculation is that with no SUB there's also no required spending target. I don't have to spend $3000, $5000, or more on this card to earn anything. That frees me up to sign up for another card, a net-new card, and put my spending toward earning a big SUB there!

How will all this work out? I'll check back in ~12 months on how this card does— plus how whatever other card with a big SUB I sign up for does!

canyonwalker: Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. Travel! (planes trains and automobiles)
Whenever we travel I look to use points to reduce the amount we have to pay in cash. As I've got a lot of points (2024 EOY inventory) I'm always looking for opportunities to use them. But I'm looking for opportunities to get worthy value for them. Alas that's why I have so many points sitting in my accounts.... Opportunities to redeem them for shitty value abound; opportunities to redeem them for decent value, let alone great value, are fewer and farther between. Thus on our trip to Georgia last week, like most, we chose to pay for some things with points and others with cash.

  • Our five nights at a hotel in Savannah I got on points. The key factor tipping that in favor of points was Marriott's standard bonus of redeeming a 5 night award for the price of 4 nights. If I'd had to pay points equal to 5x the single night rate it would've been a tie for value between that and cash. Getting 20% off the points price made points the winner.

  • For our two nights in Dawsonville we used points for the Holiday Inn Express. IHG, their parent company, has moved to a mostly rate-based system for awards, so screaming deals on points are very rare to find anymore. This was at least a fair deal on what we consider the points worth. As I've noted before, you've got to know what points are worth to make good decisions about when to use— or not use— them.

  • Oh, and Hawk used her points for those two nights in Dawsonville. Yes, she has points, too! For IHG, both of us get most of our points from lucrative credit card sign-up bonuses.

  • For our 1 night at ATL airport— the one we got that suite upgrade on— we paid cash. The hotel's cash rates where low enough that the points rate wasn't worth it. And it was also Hawk's elite status, again from a credit card, that got us that upgrade.

  • For the flights on Southwest I paid cash. Southwest's points awards follow a formula relative to the cash price so there really aren't deals to be found there. It comes down to a question of "Do I want to earn points and thus get nearer to earning/renewing elite status right now, or redeem points and gain nothing toward elite status?" I'm in status-chasing mode with Southwest right now, so I bought the tickets with cash. Though it wasn't cash, per se, but travel credit. Meaning, there was no hit to my budget this month because it's money I spent months ago on tickets I had to cancel.


The only other part of this trip that was a hard cost, as in money out of pocket this month, was the rental car. And there I'm glad I got pissed at Avis's clusterfuckery and canceled my first car reservation because it turned out we totally didn't need a rental car in Savannah. As we chose a hotel so close to where my sister and her family live, they were okay with driving us around. When we did rent a car for the cross-state drive up to the mountains, it cost just $190 vs. the $575 it would've cost to have a car for the whole week. The difference, almost $400, is what we would've paid just for the 5 day local part of our trip. That's so not worth it I'm surprised I even signed up for it in the first place!

canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
The deadline to file income taxes in the US is April 15. Tomorrow. I beat the rush by filing mine yesterday, April 13. 😂

No, I'm not one of those people who procrastinates on taxes until the last minute. I started working on my taxes in February and finished them in March. The only difference was I waited until now to submit the forms— and the payments.

One thing I look at each year is what my effective tax rate is. It's interesting because if you ask people who are middle class or upper middle class, you'll hear a lot of off the cuff answers like, "My tax rate is 33%" or "40%", or higher. The fact is most people way overestimate how much they're taxed. And it's not like it's hard to find the actual figure. Look at your AGI and your total tax owed. Both numbers are right there on your Form 1040. All that's left is to divide one by the other. My overall federal tax rate for last year was just under 19%.

"19%?" you might ask, "What are you, poor? Or a tax cheat?" Neither. It's a legit figure. And no, I haven't found some crazy tax loophole that lets me cut my taxes in half. My 19% overall rate is likely higher than what most Americans pay.

People talking about tax rates of 33%, 40%, etc. aren't sharing actual results, they're just repeating figures they've heard from others— numbers they don't really understood and come primarily from political arguments. It's popular to complain taxes are too high. I mean, who wants to say, "Please tax me MORE"? Okay, billionaire Warren Buffett kind of does; but he's the exception that proves the rule. 😅

canyonwalker: Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. Travel! (planes trains and automobiles)
Pasadena Trade Show Travelog #3
At the hotel - Fri, 7 Mar 2025, 6am

A few blogs ago I mentioned the decision to fly rather than drive on this trip to Pasadena. When I'm traveling to the LA area I always consider driving vs. flying. Usually flying wins for business trips, though not always. Years ago I chose to drive on a business trip to Calabasas, which is also in the LA area, and I created a humorous comparison chart driving vs. flying. But underneath that chart is a series of calculations. And the answer I reached depends on what I'm solving for in my calculation.

Calculation? Yes, calculation. And because it's me, you know I always do the math. 😅

With any math problem, you're solving for "x". (If there's no letter like "x" then it's not math, it's arithmetic!) What's x? On this trip I decided x is "How much time and effort I have to spend traveling." That's the variable I want to solve for. ...Okay, it's more like a multivariate equation— two things being solved for, time and energy, so it's like solving for f(x,y)— but I'm trying to keep this example to high school level algebra, not second-year college calculus. 🤓

Anyway, the point is I decided I'm solving for time and energy... as opposed to something else, like cost. On a personal trip I'm more likely to solve for cost— though not always. Time is valuable on leisure trips, too, especially when we're constrained by how little time off from work we have.

Here's how these factors looked:

  • Time: SJC and BUR are both small enough airports that they're easy to navigate, plus I wasn't checking a bag. My door-to-door time was just 3.25 hours, pretty much a record in my 1,100+ flight history. If I had driven the 351 miles it would've taken at least 5.5 hours, possibly more like 6 with traffic— and that's just the driving time. Probably I would have stopped for a quick dinner along the way, to let evening traffic in LA subside if nothing else. I would've gotten to my hotel after 8pm.

  • Effort: As frustrating as air travel can be at times, there are also periods of downtime I enjoy. Waiting in the seating area at the gate is downtime. Sitting on the plane is mostly downtime. Riding in a Lyft or Uber is downtime. Downtime I can use, e.g., to read news, email, and texts on my phone. Now, plane seats aren't as comfortable as my car's seat, but driving is very much an active activity. I've got to be "on" for the drive; I can't just sit there and veg. If I'd driven last night I would've arrived after 8pm, tired and ragged. Instead, by 8pm, I'd gotten an extra bit of work done, had a lot of time to unwind, and enjoyed a casual dinner plus the gentle exercise of walking.

  • Cost: By flying I spent about $500 of the company's money on flights, plus there'll be about $150 on car services. If I'd driven, the government rate of $0.70 on 702 miles round trip would cost $491. Plus parking at the hotel, which is a smidge pricey at $30/day for overnight use. So $581 for transport costs if I'd driven vs. $650 for flying. Likely I could have saved money vs. the $491 mileage rate by renting a car, though then there'd be costs for gas and transport to/from the rental location. Plus added time and effort.

  • Flexibility: I said there were three factors, now I'm adding a fourth. That's because there's a Z axis here, something that's often not thought about in the tradeoff between time and money. Driving usually offers way more flexibility than flying. There's the ability to travel on my own schedule plus the ability to go... wherever... once I'm there. On some trips that's super-important. Here, not so much. Flight schedules are convenient, and once I'm settled in Pasadena I really don't need to go anywhere more than 1/2 mile away until it's time to go home.

So, cost favored driving on this trip. But the point is that cost is not the only factor. Especially when traveling on business, cost has to be traded off vs. time and my ability to get the job done— which is what the company is paying me for. It's worth the cost difference to be more efficient with my time and effort. Especially when I'm willing to work through the weekend for this trade show.


canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
Today, again, for the second time in umpteen visits, a local fast food restaurant gave me the senior discount on my order.

Lunch spot gave me the Senior Discount again... and you know what? I'm okay with it now. (Feb 2025)

In the past I've reacted, "WTF? How old do you think I am?" Now I'm like, whatever. You want to give me a discount I don't deserve, that's okay with me. I don't care if young'uns think I'm 15 years older than I am. I'm only as old as I feel. And a buck-fifty's a buck-fifty. 😅

For years I've been secretly jealous of senior discounts. As a teen struggling to afford things on my minimum wage salary I always frustrated by it. Why do seniors get a discount? I wondered. They've had way more years to get the money!

Well, now it's my turn. I mean, technically it's not my turn for another 10-12 years for 10% off at many restaurants, hotels, etc., but why not let grab those discounts as soon as I can from whippernappers who think that everyone over 40 is 65+. That's right, kids, I remember the 1980s! I changed TV channels with a knob on the TV set! I raised and lowered windows in my first car by turning a crank! Now give me that damn 10% off. 🤣


canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Over the past several years I've made a habit of using New Year's as a time to reflect on, and take stock of, the year just finished. It's time for the 2025 edition, looking back on 2024.

It's always a question how to title these annual reflections. Last year I struggled for weeks over how to frame the malaise that dominated 2023, the sense of doom about to arrive that never did yet made it hard to appreciate the good things that happened. What I came up with then was 2023: The Year That Was. Alas, 2024 felt like more of the same. There were some good things in there, some moments of near greatness even, but most of them were coupled with setbacks and worry about the future. Thus I'll title it 2024: Another Year That Was.

Travel & Experiences: Positive

As I break it down to understand what was good or bad about 2024, one aspect of 2024— like in 2023— that I feel warm about is travel and experiences. 2024 was another strong year for going places and having fun. In 2024:

  • We visited New Zealand on a two week trip, spending time on both main islands. It was our first trip to NZ. Heck, it was our first two week trip anywhere. I hope this is a sign of more things to come, soon.

  • We visited Panama for 8-9 days. There were many frustrations on that trip, but I try to think of it as overall a positive experience overall. Certainly I'm happier having gone, however far from perfect it turned out to be, than staying home or traveling anywhere domestically.

  • We had a mostly expenses paid trip to Mexico for Club. We stayed in two nice hotels— so nice that we didn't even want to leave our rooms.

  • We dropped our pace on weekend trips during the summer. That's on us. Though we did pick up toward the end of the summer again with Friday Night Halfway trips.

Friends & Family: Slightly Negative

2024 was another year of seeing my count of family and friends dwindle. It's not as severe as 2023 when I had to fire a few people from the position of being friends. I did lose one elderly relative, my Aunt Carol, to the infirmities of old age. She was 87.

One of the side effects of getting older is that most of your relatives and friends get older, too. Those who were the elders when I was young, my grandparents' generation: they're long gone already. Now many of my parents' generation are gone, too. Well, I still have my mom, though she's got many issues. And my wife still has both her parents. But for how long.

Finances: Positive, despite a Setback

2024 was another good year financially. Our savings for (early) retirement grew by about 16% due to market improvement, plus we continued to save aggressively to grow our portfolio even bigger. Our savings rate was less aggressive than the past few years, though, as Hawk lost her job early in the year. If not for that, and her difficulty in finding a suitable new job (she's been job-searching for 9 months), we might be at our early retirement goal already.

I do need to point out that, under the heading of money, 2024 has felt like a Dickensian situation of, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." In 2023, widespread belief that an economic recession was perpetually just 3-6 months away overshadowed positive actual economic figures, creating social anxiety about the economy. In 2024 widespread anxiety continued, though the bogeyman changed from an expected recession that never came to concern over inflation. A few years of elevated inflation after a historic 10+ year run of near zero inflation has people freaking out— somewhat rightly— about the future if prices continue to rise like that.

One of the aspects of "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" is that not everybody experienced the pain of inflation or benefits of the rising market equally. In 2024 the rich got richer, the extremely rich got way richer, and everybody else got squeezed. 2024 is hardly the first time that's happened, of course. In fact in the US it's pretty much par for the course.

Which camp am I in? Honestly I've got one foot in each. I'm well off enough after years of working hard and saving prudently that I benefited from the growth of the stock market in 2024. But I'm also still close enough to the working class / middle class my wife and I grew up in that we're very well aware of the struggle of people lower down the ladder than us. And we feel the pains, too, of seeing our health care costs, for example, grow by more than $20k year-over-year as health insurers find ever more ways to cut back on what they cover. At least we can afford that $20k increase without it forcing a dilemma of, "Do we see the doctor or buy groceries this week?"

Career: Mostly Negative

I enjoyed a bit of job recognition early in the year when I won nomination to president's club at my company. That provided a fun vacation to Mexico but alas not the stepping stone in my career I was looking for. I.e., I've been angling for a substantial increase in job title, to recognize the level of skill and capability I demonstrate, but that didn't come. And with yet-again new leaders in my department since then I've now actually fallen backward a few steps yet-again as the new managers yet-again expect me to start over at square one in proving myself.

New management is also frustrating in other ways. I won't elaborate specifics here as I'm keeping this blog open, but let's just say multiple signs are telling me it's past time to leave. Hint: the sacking of the whole rest of my team earlier this week is one example. That's sad because I've been with this company for over 7 years and have had some good times and done some great work here.

The notion of it being time to find a new job is complicated by the fact I'm looking to retire soon. I really don't want to start a new job just to work it for a short period of time. When I decide I'm done here, am I done-done? As in ready to retire?

I've been holding on in this deteriorating job for a few years now, telling myself I'm on a glide path. I've swallowed my frustration at numerous things for a few years, telling myself I've just got to keep gliding a little longer. Early in 2024 I thought I was ready to walk over management bullshit. The glow I enjoyed from telling off my boss died a few days later when Hawk and I learned that her job was being eliminated. So I've held onto my job a bit longer. How much longer now? I'd like to say this is the final year, perhaps even the final 4 months, but I'm not sure. Meanwhile the frustrations mount.

canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
I've remarked before that I take home a small amount of money as a souvenir when traveling in other countries. It's the easiest memento to buy.... I don't even have to buy anything! Bringing home foreign currency from Panama late last month was complicated a bit, though, by the fact there isn't much of it. Panama's domestic currency, the Balboa, is pegged to the US Dollar, and dollars are accepted as official currency. Panama doesn't even print paper currency for the Balboa, just coins in small denominations.

Panamanian coins - 3.70 Balboas (Jan 2024)

Here's what I came home with. It's B/3.70. The coins at the top are dollar 1 Balboa coins. There's also a half-Balboa and two 0.10 coins. The latter get mixed freely with US dimes in cash drawers. And cash drawers also contain plenty of US quarters. I don't think a Balboa quarter exists. I didn't see one, anyway. And the coin-op laundry machine we used one night took only US quarters.

The 1 Balboa coins have different designs on them. The one in the upper left is the first I got. I was wondering, "Why does this look like a Swiss coin?" It's from 2017 and commemorates the centennial of the Red Cross (la Cruz Roja) in Panama.

canyonwalker: Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. Travel! (planes trains and automobiles)
"So, I see Southwest is changing to assigned seats," many relatives and friends of my inlaws' family prompted me during our Thanksgiving visit.

It may seem an odd conversation starter to you, but it makes sense to me as many of these folks know me as the one in the family who's always flying somewhere. And when they inquired how we got to Harrisburg, PA from San Francisco and I mentioned flying Southwest to BWI— where there's a nonstop to/from OAK several days a week!— they free-associated the one thing they've heard recently about Southwest.

Yes, it's true. Southwest is moving to assigned seating. It's a change from Southwest's "Open Seating" policy that no seats are assigned and passengers are free to choose any seat once they board. Open Seating has been their policy, and even part of their brand identity, for their entire 57 year history, making Southwest unique in the industry.

"Why'd they finally change that?" folks asked next. Or sometimes they'd put a sharper point on it: "What took them so long to standardize with the rest of the industry?"

With that I'd point out that the change to assigned seats is not about assigned seats, per se. It's about increasing revenues. I.e., getting passengers to pay more. And the way all the other airlines have gotten passengers to pay more over the past 20 years has been to introduce ancillary fees.

Ancillary Fees

What are "ancillary fees"? They're all those nuisance fees that airline passengers say they hate. Fees for checked bags, fees for getting a marginally better seat, fees for even choosing a seat at booking, fees for boarding with an earlier boarding group, even fees for asking an agent at check-in to print your boarding pass instead of doing it yourself.

Passengers say they hate being nickeled-and-dimed with fees, so airlines were cautious about introducing them 20 years ago. The industry quickly found that all passengers really cared about was the cheapest upfront ticket price, add-on fees later be damned. Plus, when all airlines were charging fees, there wasn't an alternative. ...Except that, all this time, Southwest has avoided most of those fees. It became one of their big selling points.

So, Southwest was virtually alone in charging way fewer fees to customers. Customers, smart customers, might look at that as, "Hey, that's a benefit!" A lot of investors take the opposite viewpoint. To them it's, "You proud fools are failing to siphon as much money as possible out of customers' pockets!"

That's where the pressure to change has come from: from investors. An activist investor has gotten involved, campaigning against the status quo among Southwest Airlines' board of directors. He's been lobbying them to pressure the airline execs to change the policies. But not because assigned seats are "better" or because they're "standard", but to make more money. To make more money by being able to charge passengers more fees.

A Complex Change

Charging people for better seats is one of the most obvious forms of ancillary revenue. To charge for better seats, though, Southwest has to switch to assigning them. Otherwise why pay? The people who board first would just take the better seats for free. So this whole change in long-standing policy and operations, is to support the charging of a new fee.

And it's a major change. Not only will Southwest have to change its data systems to manage seat assignment— a whole new dimension of operations that they never had to in their entire history—but they'll have to refit all their aircraft with the better seats they'll charge more for. No, "better seats" will not be first class. They'll just be ordinary seats with a few inches more legroom, like United Airlines' Economy Plus and American Airlines' Main Cabin Extra. But still, that's a lot of work. Refitting their entire fleet will take time, which means— among many other substantial challenges and risks— there will be a period of probably months when passengers are invited to pay extra money for choice seats but then find they're boarded onto an aircraft that doesn't have premium seats. Oops! 🤬

Bags Still Fly Free

At least one other passenger-friendly policy at Southwest is not changing: Bags Fly Free. Every passenger continues to be able to check 2 ordinary sized bags without charge. Southwest frequent flyers held their breath for a few months once that activist investor started clamoring for more fees, worried that Bag Fly Free might be first benefit to go. It would be a vastly simpler change for the airline to make than refitting all its aircraft and rewriting all its software to manage seat assignments for the first time in 57 years. But Bags Fly Free is still there. For now.
canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
Another one of my credit cards posted its annual fee following account anniversary recently. This is a card I happen to have owned a long time, 7 years. That's longer than any other hotel/airline affinity card I currently own, and longer than all but one hotel/airline card I've ever owned in the past. As I've kept this card so long you might think I use it constantly and travel with the hotel/airline frequently. You'd think that... and you'd be wrong. 😂 This is a oddball little card that delivers value even when I barely use it.

Okay, enough mystery. The card I'm talking about is the Chase IHG One Rewards Select Credit Card. (Yes, that's a mouthful. It always is with marketingspeak.) I've now had this card for just over 7 years now. The annual fee is $49. Let's review if and how that's worth paying for another year, year 8.

Chase IHG Rewards CardThis card pays a not-generous 5x points/dollar on IHG hotel spend; 2x on restaurant, gas, and grocery spend; and 1x on everything else. At a value of 0.6 cents per point* that's only 3% value on hotels and less than 2% on everything else. I already own two credit cards that pay 2%, cash, on everything... plus my spouse has a card that pays 3% on all travel. So using this card for spending is generally a losing proposition. 😧

Most of the benefits I derive from this card are not from charging on it. One big one is that every year I get a free-night award. In the past I've made these worth an average of $200 each. Over the past year IHG had devalued its award points again* so I figure the value of these awards at $150 now. Still, that's nothing to sneeze at; it pays just over 2:1 on the annual fee.

Another nice benefit I get from this card is a 10% rebate on award points redeemed. Some years that's a lot. For example, I earned back 12,000 this way in 2022 and 16,000 in 2023. This year I earned just 4,300. Still, this rebate has value. At the rate of $0.006 it's $25.

There are other benefits, too. Chase and IHG offered a few merchant credits throughout the year. I nabbed $15 of cash-back credits through those. I also get the benefit of IHG Platinum status by owning this card. Platinum isn't worth a heck of a lot with IHG; just earning extra points each stay plus the occasional upgrade. We only got one upgrade this year: a suite at an airport hotel in New Zealand. It was hardly a stunning upgrade, but still we appreciated having the extra space to stretch out in since we were there for 2 days while rain spoiled our outdoors plans. I figure the fringe benefits were worth another $50 this.

Adding these all together, the card delivered $240 of value in exchange for its $49 annual fee. And that's all value I got for charging less than $1,000 on it over 12 months. For the next 12 months I anticipate getting similar value... and quite possible more if I redeem a greater quantity of points in 2025.

Now, in the past I've canceled some cards when I forecast "only" a $200 net win. I'm choosing to keep this one, though. The reason is that I can't churn this card. Most other cards, I'd cancel long before this point and reapply (churn) to earn another signup bonus. But I can't do that with this card. It's not available anymore. So I'm going to hold onto it for the annual free night award and the fringe benefits relative to the low, $49 annual fee.

_____

[*] I mentioned devaluation a few times. Compared to my analysis a year ago I've reduced my figure for what IHG points are worth. Previously I valued them at 0.7 cents per point. Now I'm using a value of 0.6. Possibly I should use an even lower value such as 0.5. These figures are based on observing what rooms sell for on points versus what they sell for at cash rates— a comparison I check virtually every time I book a stay.
canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
Our Costco dividend check arrived this week. It's for $68 and change. That's disappointingly less than last year's nearly $114 but at least is still enough to more than break even on the $60 premium we pay for Costco Executive membership vs. the basic Costco Gold.

We finally upgraded to executive membership at Costco! (Jan 2022)

BTW, the way the $68 is figured is it's 2% of our purchases at Costco, excluding gasoline. I figure our dividend is way down this year because we didn't really make any big-ticket purchases. Though we do continue to shop at Costco regularly.

canyonwalker: Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. Travel! (planes trains and automobiles)
Thanksgiving '24 Travelog #16
Back Home - Mon, 2 Dec 2024, 12:15am

Hawk and I got home late this evening from our Thanksgiving trip to the east coast. We always knew it was going to be a late evening as our flight was scheduled to leave Baltimore at 7:10pm and land in Oakland at 10:10. Best case we'd be home a bit after 11, we knew.. For a few hours at the airport our flight showed on time, with the inbound aircraft flying on schedule. But then....

I'll book this Southwest flight... and it's delayed

Then Southwest changed our aircraft. The one that was due to land 90 minutes ahead of boarding our flight was swapped over to another flight and we were assigned an aircraft that couldn't possibly get to us in time for our scheduled departure. We left 30 minutes late. We landed 30 minutes late, too. The upshot was that we got home-home, as in walked through our own front door, a few minutes before midnight.

Turning Around Tomorrow Morning

Coming home at midnight would be one thing if all I had to do was work from home in the morning. I'd be dragging but I'd manage it. Instead I have to get up early tomorrow morning to pack another suitcase and go back to the airport! I'll be headed off to a big trade show in Las Vegas for 3½ days.

Of course I planned ahead for this so I don't have to do laundry before going back out... but I do have to ready a bunch of specific things. Thus I'll be busy in the morning. And I planned for that with my flight time, too. I booked at 11am-ish flight instead of one leaving around 9am. That'll give me time to do the things I need to do... though I will be busy and there won't be time to spare.

About the Parking Gambit...

Recall when we embarked on this trip 9 days ago we had trouble getting an Uber or Lyft ride in time. We punted on waiting for a car and drove— which meant we had to park. And airport parking at OAK was more expensive than I expected. I thought it'd run us about $180 for the trip. It ran $236.

Part of the problem with Uber and Lyft, though, was that not only were there no drivers nearby, the fares were ridiculously high. We'd have had to pay around $100, maybe more, for a ride. We imagine that our ride tonight, when an after-hours surcharge would apply, would make it another $100 proposition. The prospect of spending $200 on rides softened the blow of spending $236 on parking. Well, I checked when we landed at the airport near 11pm. Lyft would've been about $80 coming home tonight. So driving our own car cost us about $56 more in parking than the rides would've cost. Is there a value in the convenience of having our own car instead of a potentially cramped and smelly back seat of someone else's car? Absolutely. But is it worth $56? Enh. Next time we fly OAK we'll plan ahead of time on driving and make a parking reservation, which lowers the daily rate.
canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
Today, Oct. 31, represents various things for different people. For some, it's Halloween. For others, it's Diwali. For me it's the end of the quarter. My company's fiscal year runs Feb 1 - Jan 31, so today is the last day of Q3.

The last day of the quarter in sales is often a day of great stress as people are straining to complete deals by midnight. Yes, ordinarily 9-5 types work late into the evening on days like this. Yes, it makes a big difference whether a deal is considered closed at 11:30pm tonight versus a few hours later in the wee hours of tomorrow. It makes a big difference in the quarterly results a company reports to its investors. It can also make a big difference in how people in sales are compensated.

For me and for my team, though, today's a day of relaxation. We closed every deal on the table already in the past few days. We not only closed every deal, we closed a HUGE deal; the biggest single deal ever in the company's history.

"Have you taken a look at the commission reporting tool?" a colleague slacked me yesterday. "I think there's a mistake in it."

"What kind of mistake?" I asked, already having a (happy) suspicion what he was seeing.

"The number is BIG," he wrote.

"Quick, take a screen shot!" I joked. Then I added: "Did you look down in the detail section? Did you see the $11 million deal we closed this week?"

BOOM!

The biggest single commission payment I've enjoyed in my career will be coming in my paycheck in about two weeks.
canyonwalker: Uh-oh, physics (Wile E. Coyote)
Several years ago we started replacing the light bulbs in our house with LED bulbs. LED technology had been available for at least a few years before that. We delayed in embracing it because the cost was high at first. A package of LED bulbs often cost 10x what a package incandescent bulbs with the same light output cost. When the purchase price differential dropped to merely 3x we decided to give it a shot. I penciled out how LED bulbs save more in lower electricity consumption than they cost. In addition to consuming about 1/8 as much electricity as incandescent bulbs, LED bulbs also last way longer. ...Or at least they're supposed to.

LED bulbs aren't living up to their promise of long life (Oct 2024)

Within months of installing the first LED bulbs in our house I noticed that some of them were burning out quickly. Instead of lasting 7-8x as long, or even longer, than their incandescent counterparts, they were burning out in less than 1/4 the time. Not all the LED died young, but it seemed like about 1/3 did. That failure rate was annoying given the product's high cost, but I took it in stride as perhaps growing pains in a new industry.

This issue came to the forefront of my mind again this month. One of the light bulbs in our bathroom fixture started to flicker. "Oh. it's the last incandescent bulb dying," I thought to myself. "Now I can replace it with an LED bulb and we'll be all LED!"

When I unscrewed the bulb I found I was mistaken. The dying bulb was an LED. And the two bulbs next to it, still living their best lives, were older incandescent lights. In fact they had greatly outlived yet-another LED bulb. One of the LEDs that's supposed to live 7-8x as long as them.

I shared this frustration with a few neighbors when we were chatting about ways to reduce utility bills. Two jumped on this issue right away; they, too, have experienced a significant portion of LED bulbs dying waaaay before their supposed lifetimes. "The label claims are bunk!" one neighbor charged. "Maybe they're still working out manufacturing quality problems," I suggested.

One neighbor objected strenuously to our criticisms, insisting the bulbs are all great, the technology is great, and that we're just mistaken. Perhaps not coincidentally she works for a company that makes LED bulbs. 🤣
canyonwalker: Breaking Bad stylized logo showing Walter White (breaking bad)
In the fourth episode of Breaking Bad Walter White comes clean with his family about his lung cancer diagnosis. They react in different way, unsurprisingly. His wife, Skyler, tries to stay optimistic. She first insists he get a second opinion then urges him to pursue treatment with the best cancer specialist around. The best don't come cheap, though. And there's the rub. What does it cost to live? What does it cost merely to die a bit more slowly?

Walt balks at the cost for just consulting with the best doctor. It's $5,000 just for the consult. Walt's family doesn't have that kind of money. Remember, he was working a demeaning second job at a carwash just to meet basic expenses for his family. "I can borrow against my pension," Walt says to stop Skyler's nagging— though instead of borrowing he uses money he took from drug dealers he killed.

That $5,000 was just for a second opinion. Getting treatment is a whole 'nother thing. The doctor estimates to Walt and Skyler it'll cost $90,000 a year. Ninety thousand. For a family that can't afford nine hundred to replace their furnace without stretching payments out for a year or more on credit cards. And oh, by the way, that $90,000 a year doesn't make Walt a healthy person. The treatment comes with a long list of terrible side effects the doctor rattles off. Lack of energy. Aches and pains. Nausea. Bruising. For $90,000 a year* Walt gets to die slowly.

While Breaking Bad is obviously a fictional story, this element of it is starkly real. It's a reality I started thinking about years ago. I don't have cancer, I don't plan to get cancer, but the reality is if I do I'll face a choice similar to Walt's. To get treatment— which only slows death and does not provide quality-of-life— I'd drain my family's savings and/or face bankruptcy.

When I first started thinking about this, the common figure was $80,000 a year. It would cost $80,000 a year to prolong an inevitable death in the face of terminal cancer or similar disease. And again, that's not $80k for a year of good life. It's $80k for a year of suffering. This show uses the figure $90k. It was filmed years after I thought about the $80k figure; costs obviously went up. Similarly, this Breaking Bad episode was written almost 20 years ago now. A quick search indicates that the average cancer treatment in 2024 in the US costs $150,000/year.

My choice if faced with such a diagnosis wouldn't be as stark as Walter White's. I wouldn't need to consider turning to a life of crime to avoid bankrupting my family. We've built decent wealth through decades of hard work and prudent saving. But all that wealth can drain quickly against these types of costs. FWIW, this problem— medical problems costing hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars out of pocket— is the primary reason why affluent people in the US don't feel rich.

At some point you decide it's not worth it. If I get a terminal diagnosis, I'd rather die in comfort (e.g., via hospice care) than to piss away hundreds of thousands, potentially millions of dollars of money my family needs for the rest of its life just to buy myself an extra year of suffering.

This is one of the things that makes this story uniquely American, BTW. Imagine what this story would be like set in a minor city in the UK instead of one in the US. Instead of "Mild mannered chemistry teacher turns to a life of violent crime so medical bills don't bankrupt his family" it'd be, "Walt gets a cancer diagnosis in episode 1 and then spends the next 5 seasons getting free treatment at the NHS."

canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
Yesterday I posted about how Hawk and I bought new iPhones (the new 16 Pro) Thursday night. The deal was practically a steal. Verizon and Apple (I assume they're subsidizing it on the back end) offered a whopping $1,000 credit, each, for trading in our old phones. Normally the trade-in value for our older, mid-range phones would be $100 or less.

"Where's the catch?" you might wonder. With an eye-popping deal such as this, there's always a catch. Would it be higher monthly fees? Expensive contracts with long lock-in? Often something that's free up front costs more in the long run. That's how they get you.

We went into this deal very much aware of the ways we might have to pay more for "free" iPhones. To our pleasant surprise, there's really no funny business with Verizon's deal. Yes, we did have to agree to a new service plan with Verizon, and yes it is more expensive than our old plan— but only by a little bit, and we also get more for the money.

Pay More, Get More

The salesman's initial quote for our new monthly bill was a lot higher, almost 50% higher than we're already paying. Aha! That's how they get you. But the salesguy shared an itemized breakdown the moment I asked and answered all my questions without dodging. One big cost increase was coming from paying for a phone insurance plan he stuck in there. I challenged him on that. He defended it, pointing out to us the value of the insurance plan. When we said firmly we don't want it, he took it off the quote with no further discussion.

Paring off the insurance we don't want, the base price of the new plan increases by $15/month. As our old plan was already over $200/mo (for 2 phones plus wireless home internet) this is an increase of less than 10%. And the new plan is better than the old plan. Not by a huge amount, but by a bit. A key difference is that we'll pay no international roaming charges. If we take just one overseas trip a year we'll come out roughly even. (In case you're wondering, "Are you really going to travel that much?" I'll point out that we've taken three foreign trips in the past 10 months.)

I note base price above because we did also choose to buy a few of the add-ons that Verizon offered. Aha! That's how they get you. Except we picked things that were bargains. For $10 per bundle we chose a Disney-Hulu subscription and a Netflix-Max subscription. We already have Disney-Hulu and it costs more than $10/month, so that's a savings right there. And we've been wanting to get Netflix and or Max, but their price at well more than $10/month has made us hold off. So this is another respect in which yes, we are paying more, but we're also getting more.

The X-Factor: A Better Camera

As I wait for my new iPhone to arrive— they have to ship it to me; expected late next week— one thing I'm eager to explore is how well the camera system works. The iPhone 16 Pro has a trick, 3 lens camera. In addition to the standard sorta-wide angle lens there is also a super-wide lens and a moderate telephoto lens. I'll be keen to see what kind of picture quality these produce. I mean, on an absolute scale it won't be as good as I get from my dedicated stills camera, a Fujifilm X-T3, with nice lenses I've invested in. But on a relative scale I expect it'll be close. Close enough that maybe I won't carry a bulky dedicated camera so often when I go hiking? That's what I'm keen to see.

canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
I have a couple of Visa Gift Cards that have been sitting in my desk drawer for a long time. Fortunately they have distant expiry dates because when I say "long time" I mean one had sitting in my drawer, waiting to be used, for 2 years... and the other for over 4 years.

A pair of Visa gift cards I finally "used" (Sep 2024)I frankly kind of hate getting these as gifts. I mean, I appreciate the gift. $100 is $100. But $100 face value seems worth a lot less when it's hard to use. And that's the problem with Visa Gift Cards. As Scott Adams memorably put it in a Dilbert comic strip back in the 1990s (well before he turned into a MAGA shill), "Oh, look, a gift card! Just as impersonal as cash but less useful."

I mean, who even gives gift cards anymore? It seems like a Boomer thing to do. ...Though actually GCs are more of a Gen X thing. Boomers would still send checks. 😂

GCs are tough to use because how often is something exactly $100? You might purchase a few small things and have a balance of, like, $12.23 left over. It's hard to use up. But what about buying a big thing for $100? Remember, this is the US, where prices are almost always advertised pre-tax, so a tag price of $99.99 comes to $108.24 at checkout. And a lot of retail stores basically can't handle charging a flat amount of a bill to one card and the rest to another. Even if most modern POS systems support it, my experience is that employee training often falls short.

A few weeks ago I saw the cards again in my desk drawer and, instead of shutting the drawer and forgetting about them for another few months, I thought, "Aha! I know how to get the value out of these!" I'd use them to buy Amazon Gift Cards.

Amazon gift cards are both more useful and less useful than Visa gift cards. They're less useful because they're locked to Amazon. Though Amazon sells almost everything, and while we're hardly Amazon super-shoppers we do buy enough stuff there that I could spend $200. I mean, it might take 6 months, but that's faster than the 4-5 years one of these cards has been around. And Amazon GC are more useful because once the cards are converted, Amazon makes it trivially easy to apply them to pay a specific amount of a larger bill. Getting the full value out of them with Amazon is hassle-free. Even better, when I bought 2 x $100 GCs, Amazon rolled them both into another GC I already had with a balance of $32.78 or whatever. So now instead of three smaller GCs I just have one bigger one. Nice job, Amazon.

canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
The other day I wrote about the 2% cash-back credit cards I own. Cash-back cards like these are great options for people who want to get into the game of cards that pay dividends but don't want the complexities of redeeming points with airlines and hotels. As I've explained before, airline/hotel affinity cards are only worth it if you travel regularly.

"Wait," you might wonder, "You travel a lot, why do you use a plain, 2% cash-back card so much instead of your travel cards?"

First, I do use my travel cards a lot. My most used card last year was an airline card I hit with $40k of charges. The situation is that I use cash-back cards also.

Second, the reason that I use plain cash-back cards also is that one of the complexities of travel cards is that for many categories of charges, travel cards are not worth it. 😧 Generally the points earning structure on these cards is something like, "Earn 3x points per dollar on purchases with the airline, 2x on select partners, and 1x on all other spending." The 1x on everything else isn't worth it as the points are worth way less than 2%, sometimes less even than 1%.

There are other benefits, though, besides the straight points value with airline/hotel cards. But then most also charge annual fees. These have to be factored into the equation. I use points-and-miles cards when the benefits I earn are worth more than 2%, I use 2% cash-back cards otherwise, and I'm thorough about knowing the difference. That's why I share these analyses under the tag, What's in YOUR wallet?.

canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
When I write about using credit cards to earn miles/points with airlines and hotel s, aka What's in YOUR wallet?, I always compare the value I get from points cards to what I could earn from a no-annual fee, 2% cash-back card. That's not just a theoretical comparison. I actually own— and use— a no-fee, 2% cash-back card. In fact I have two of them. They've just hit a pair of anniversaries, so let's check what they've been worth.

Citibank DoubleCash

Citi Double Cash cardThe Citibank DoubleCash card is the oldest in my credit card portfolio. I've had it, and the the predecessor I converted it from, for over 10 years now. Citi DC, as I call it for short, comes with a fairly simple proposition: it pays 1% on purchases charged plus another 1% on balances are paid. The dividend earned can be taken in the form of a bank transfer or applied as a statement to help pay off the balance. Though if you choose the latter method you loose out on the second 1% of that amount, so it nets out as 1.98%.

Over the past 12 months this card has actually paid me more than 2%. That's because Citibank has this thing called Merchant Offers. They're little bonuses for spending with particular merchants, co-sponsored by the businesses. I've netted about $36 with these. It's not a lot of money in the grand scheme of things, but earning little bits extra on stuff I'd generally buy anyway is a fun little activity to pursue.

Fidelity Rewards Visa

My other 2% card is the Fidelity Rewards Visa. I added this card 5 years ago after I already had the Citi DoubleCash card. Fidelity Rewards Visa Signature CardAt the time it offered slightly better redemption terms; Fidelity would auto-deposit cashback to my Fidelity account every time the cashback balance passed $25. Citi made me wait 'til $50 for a check. Citi's now better with no minimum for a transfer, but I continue to use the Fidelity card way more because the auto-deposit to my Fidelity account is so convenient. That's a big part of why I've cycled over $22,000 of charges through it in the past 12 months, versus less than $500 on the Citi DC.

There are more reasons that just auto-redemption for why the Fidelity card is one of my top cards by usage. One not to be overlooked is that because it is a Visa I can use it at Costco. 😅 We spend at least a few thousand a year at Costco. In addition Fidelity, like Citi, has offered spending incentives on their card. Unlike Citi they're not "Get 5% back on spending $20 at Merchant X" offers but "Spend at least $X,000 in the next 2 months for 20% more points." I've hit those for about $50 over the past 12 months. Again, that's not a lot of money in the grand scheme of things, but it's a nice little bonus, in cash, for changing anything to this card.


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