2025: A Year of Waiting, part 2
Jan. 4th, 2026 08:07 pmEarlier today I posted my personal reflections on the past year. I dubbed it 2025: A Year of Waiting. That post wasn't all of my personal reflections, though. It was just one part. It turned out after I wrote and edited the part on how 2025 was the year of Being Sick Sucks— a tag I attached to 47 posts last year— I felt so down I needed a break from writing. I didn't want to risk that this retrospective gets stuck in my WIP queue for another few days, though, so I published what I had. I planned to come back with the rest later. Later's now.

The thing about Waiting... as a theme is that it has both negative aspects as well as... not-so-negative (I can't quite bring myself to say positive) aspects.
The negative kind of waiting comes with all the things that are beyond our control. Like, do I get sick with a virus despite generally being safe and smart about hygiene? How long does that virus take to run its course? How long does my wife's recovery from a planned surgery take? How many complications happen along the way, each setting her back two weeks or more, through no fault of her own? All we can do with these is keep waiting, and keep pushing out our expectations for how long we'll be waiting.
On the other hand there's the type of waiting that comes with a situation where we have some control. We set ourselves up as best we can for the long term, then navigate through the complications and changes thrown our way. Though there can be frustrating setbacks, overall it is fulfilling to nurture the plan to its fruition. Planning with money is one of these situations.
Once I had the cost side of the budget I worked on the income side. I used my models of an investment portfolio to figure out how much we'd need in the bank to generate cash flow to fund our expenses.
It was much too early to retire then, of course. But it wasn't a Y/N question. It was a matter of when.
And that's where I started saying Five Good Years. Because from what we had then, I estimated that it would take five good years— meaning, five good years of stock market returns— to get us to our goal.
Of course, Five Good Years seldom happen all in a row. I knew that when I started saying it. I figured Five Good Years would actually take 7 years. There'd be a downturn and recovery in the market cycle somewhere in the middle.
As it turns out, Five Good Years took 10 years. I coined the Five Good Years mantra in... checks blog... April 2015. And it was around September 2025 that we reached our target number.
Why the difference, BTW? Why 10 years instead of my forecast 7? Two things. First, unanticipated disruptions gave us more not-good years than I expected. Hawk had two long periods out of work. Second, we had to raise our target number significantly. Even though I accounted for inflation in my model, high rates of inflation not seen in 40+ years kicked in in the early 2020s. Over the past 5 years the cost of many grocery staples have doubled. Property insurance has increased 10+% YoY multiple times. And health insurance, which was already one of the largest line items in our retirement budget, has rocketed up in cost at 2-3x the rate of inflation for 10 years.
These setback aside, the good news is we reached our financial goal in 2025.
The less good news is, I feel a bit like the proverbial dog that chases cars and finally caught one and now isn't sure what to do with it.
While waiting I've suffered numerous setbacks over the years. And this year there were even more setbacks.
Early in the year, in January 2025, my company had a big layoff. IMO it was poorly strategized and poorly executed. And that wasn't just my opinion. It was so bad that a lot of good people said, "Fuck it, I'm out," and quit of their own accord. Then in September there was another layoff. That one left us too short-staffed to complete all the work tasked to us in our compensation plan.
Along the way my boss has been saying earnest things about helping me build my career. But at this point it's way too little and way too late. Even if I wasn't already financially at the point of saying, "I'm outta here!" just the fact that it feels like he's shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic while telling me he'll help get me promoted would make me prefer to look elsewhere for my next opportunity anyway.

The thing about Waiting... as a theme is that it has both negative aspects as well as... not-so-negative (I can't quite bring myself to say positive) aspects.
The negative kind of waiting comes with all the things that are beyond our control. Like, do I get sick with a virus despite generally being safe and smart about hygiene? How long does that virus take to run its course? How long does my wife's recovery from a planned surgery take? How many complications happen along the way, each setting her back two weeks or more, through no fault of her own? All we can do with these is keep waiting, and keep pushing out our expectations for how long we'll be waiting.
On the other hand there's the type of waiting that comes with a situation where we have some control. We set ourselves up as best we can for the long term, then navigate through the complications and changes thrown our way. Though there can be frustrating setbacks, overall it is fulfilling to nurture the plan to its fruition. Planning with money is one of these situations.
Money: I Planned Patiently, and Now I'm There!
Years ago I started repeating the mantra Five Good Years. Hawk and I did a budgeting exercise to figure out how much money we'd need to spend on a monthly basis in retirement. We included things other people often overlook when they do this as a kitchen table budgeting exercise: health insurance costs, maintenance and insurance on the house and cars, costs for replacing cars every several years, and of course, the costs of living the active lifestyles we'd like to keep.
Once I had the cost side of the budget I worked on the income side. I used my models of an investment portfolio to figure out how much we'd need in the bank to generate cash flow to fund our expenses.It was much too early to retire then, of course. But it wasn't a Y/N question. It was a matter of when.
And that's where I started saying Five Good Years. Because from what we had then, I estimated that it would take five good years— meaning, five good years of stock market returns— to get us to our goal.
Of course, Five Good Years seldom happen all in a row. I knew that when I started saying it. I figured Five Good Years would actually take 7 years. There'd be a downturn and recovery in the market cycle somewhere in the middle.
As it turns out, Five Good Years took 10 years. I coined the Five Good Years mantra in... checks blog... April 2015. And it was around September 2025 that we reached our target number.
Why the difference, BTW? Why 10 years instead of my forecast 7? Two things. First, unanticipated disruptions gave us more not-good years than I expected. Hawk had two long periods out of work. Second, we had to raise our target number significantly. Even though I accounted for inflation in my model, high rates of inflation not seen in 40+ years kicked in in the early 2020s. Over the past 5 years the cost of many grocery staples have doubled. Property insurance has increased 10+% YoY multiple times. And health insurance, which was already one of the largest line items in our retirement budget, has rocketed up in cost at 2-3x the rate of inflation for 10 years.
These setback aside, the good news is we reached our financial goal in 2025.
The less good news is, I feel a bit like the proverbial dog that chases cars and finally caught one and now isn't sure what to do with it.
Career: Way too Little, Much too Late
Another aspect in life where I've been waiting for many years is my career. I've been waiting for opportunity for advancement to come to fruition.
While waiting I've suffered numerous setbacks over the years. And this year there were even more setbacks.Early in the year, in January 2025, my company had a big layoff. IMO it was poorly strategized and poorly executed. And that wasn't just my opinion. It was so bad that a lot of good people said, "Fuck it, I'm out," and quit of their own accord. Then in September there was another layoff. That one left us too short-staffed to complete all the work tasked to us in our compensation plan.
Along the way my boss has been saying earnest things about helping me build my career. But at this point it's way too little and way too late. Even if I wasn't already financially at the point of saying, "I'm outta here!" just the fact that it feels like he's shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic while telling me he'll help get me promoted would make me prefer to look elsewhere for my next opportunity anyway.



I have kept this card for many years not because it pays any high-flying benefits but because it does the opposite. This lowly card pays a not-generous 5x points/dollar on IHG hotel spend; 2x on restaurant, gas, and grocery spend; and 1x on everything else. At a value of 0.6 cents per IHG point* that's only 3% value on hotels and less than 2% on everything else. I already own 


The benefit I hadn't noticed before is Pay Yourself Back (PYB). Lots of cards nowadays have PYB schemes. The idea is you spend some of the points you've earned with the card to credit back the cost of purchases you've charged.
I know United miles are worth a minimum of 1.1 cpp when buying tickets. Thus I was surprised when I clicked through the PYB interface on my Chase card account and saw that it would credit my $350 AF for 25,000 points— a redemption rate of 1.4 cpp!



I opened this one last summer because there was an interesting sign-up bonus. (It's virtually always about the sign-up bonus!) The offer was 60k points after $3,000 spend in 3 months, plus another 60k points after $15,000 spend in 9 months. Combined with the minimum of 15,000 points earned from $15k of charges, that's at least 135,000 points— enough right there to qualify for Southwest's valuable Companion Pass. I gave an example of how that works recently when
But how do I value it? I decided to value it through the points I earn. The valuation of 2 cents per point I use is a blended rate that reflects the combination of buying individual tickets, where the redemption rate is about $.013, with adding on a companion for free on some of those flights. Basically I'm figuring that half the tickets I buy I'll add my companion on.
But the points aren't the only value of this card. One of its fringe benefits is that it helps me requalify for A-List/A-List Preferred status each year. That $26k spend I've charged has given me 10,000 tier qualifying points. These aren't redeemable miles but are a valuable leg up toward status.
But there is a bit of calculus, still. For one, the cards pay a bit more than 2%. Each of them offers bonuses at various times. With the Citi, these bonuses come in the form of an extra 3% on this or 5% on that, sponsored by various merchants. Over the past 12 months I've notched nearly $70 in bonuses on the DoubleCash. That's quite a bit relative to the $1,250 or so of charges I've made across the year.
On the Fidelity card I've charged a much higher base level of spend. I've cycled over $18,000 through that card in the past year. And I got one bonus, for $20. Why do I use that card so much more when the bonus is relatively meager?

The card is the Hilton Honors American Express Aspire. And it's not technically a card I've opened; it's a card I upgraded to from my present card. Plus, it's a level of card I have experience with.