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All eyes in the US today were on a pair of runoff elections for the US Senate seats from Georgia— at least they were until domestic terrorists loyal to President Trump invaded the US Capitol building! Yes, that actually happened today. It's crazy how much of a banana republic we've become. But let me step back from the aspects of our modern political environment that more closely resemble a strongman dictatorship in the developing world than the world's oldest continuous democracy and one of its wealthiest nations, to write about one of the parts of our constitutional democracy that is still working as designed.
Both of the US Senate seats in Georgia were up for election in November, 2020. Both races went to a run-off. Under the US Constitution, states may choose their own processes for selecting senators, and one aspect of Georgia's system is that a candidate must win an outright majority. If no candidate wins a majority in the general election, the top two voter getters go to a run-off election. (Interesting, Georgia's run-off system was championed by segregationists in the 1960s to limit the political power of Black voters. Even more interestingly, it was a replacement for an earlier segregationist policy in Georgia the US Supreme Court declared unconstitutional under the doctrine of One Person, One Vote.)
Georgia's run-off election was yesterday. Today, with 98% of the votes tabulated, major media are calling the winners. Both of the Democrat party candidates won, albeit by small margins. Per the New York Times (retrieved 6 Jan 2021) Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler by 1.6 points and Jon Ossoff is edging out incumbent David Perdue by 0.6 points. Update: As of 7 Jan 6pm ET, with 99% of the votes counted, the two leaders' vote margins have increased to 1.8 and 1.0 points, respectively.
The presumptive victory of both Democrat candidates shifts the balance of power in the US Senate— and greatly affects the administration of President-elect Biden, as well. Had the two Republican incumbents won, Republicans would have retained a 52-48 majority in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader McConnell would have continued his intransigent blockade against Democrat priorities. Remember, this is the senator who swore in 2010 his "main job" was "to make President Obama a one-term president" by stymieing all of his legislative initiatives and manufacturing crises such as repeated government shutdowns over his refusal to pass simple legislation required to keep the government operating. Though he failed to stop Obama's reelection he did also throttle Obama's ability to appoint judges to the federal judiciary, culminating in his 10-month-long refusal to allow a vote for nominee Merrick Garland in 2016.
With the two Democrat wins the Senate will be divided 50-50 between the two major parties. It's a tie... and under the US Constitution, ties in the Senate are broken by the Vice President. So any vote that goes straight along party lines (or anything other tied arrangement) VP-elect Kamala Harris, a Democrat, will decide. Like I wrote in the title, this is the barest of majorities.
And this scant majority is also tenuous. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is on record as opposing many of his own party's big-ticket legislative priorities. A New York Times article from five weeks ago (30 Nov 2020) quotes him on his opposition to fairer policing and reform of some of the Senate rules McConnell has been abusing. With West Virginia having voted for Trump by a 42 point margin in 2016 and almost 40 points in 2020 I would expect Manchin to side with Republicans on many issues. I would not be surprised if he even changed his party affiliation— which would tilt majority control on all the levers of power back over to Republicans.
Both of the US Senate seats in Georgia were up for election in November, 2020. Both races went to a run-off. Under the US Constitution, states may choose their own processes for selecting senators, and one aspect of Georgia's system is that a candidate must win an outright majority. If no candidate wins a majority in the general election, the top two voter getters go to a run-off election. (Interesting, Georgia's run-off system was championed by segregationists in the 1960s to limit the political power of Black voters. Even more interestingly, it was a replacement for an earlier segregationist policy in Georgia the US Supreme Court declared unconstitutional under the doctrine of One Person, One Vote.)
Georgia's run-off election was yesterday. Today, with 98% of the votes tabulated, major media are calling the winners. Both of the Democrat party candidates won, albeit by small margins. Per the New York Times (retrieved 6 Jan 2021) Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler by 1.6 points and Jon Ossoff is edging out incumbent David Perdue by 0.6 points. Update: As of 7 Jan 6pm ET, with 99% of the votes counted, the two leaders' vote margins have increased to 1.8 and 1.0 points, respectively.
The presumptive victory of both Democrat candidates shifts the balance of power in the US Senate— and greatly affects the administration of President-elect Biden, as well. Had the two Republican incumbents won, Republicans would have retained a 52-48 majority in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader McConnell would have continued his intransigent blockade against Democrat priorities. Remember, this is the senator who swore in 2010 his "main job" was "to make President Obama a one-term president" by stymieing all of his legislative initiatives and manufacturing crises such as repeated government shutdowns over his refusal to pass simple legislation required to keep the government operating. Though he failed to stop Obama's reelection he did also throttle Obama's ability to appoint judges to the federal judiciary, culminating in his 10-month-long refusal to allow a vote for nominee Merrick Garland in 2016.
With the two Democrat wins the Senate will be divided 50-50 between the two major parties. It's a tie... and under the US Constitution, ties in the Senate are broken by the Vice President. So any vote that goes straight along party lines (or anything other tied arrangement) VP-elect Kamala Harris, a Democrat, will decide. Like I wrote in the title, this is the barest of majorities.
And this scant majority is also tenuous. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is on record as opposing many of his own party's big-ticket legislative priorities. A New York Times article from five weeks ago (30 Nov 2020) quotes him on his opposition to fairer policing and reform of some of the Senate rules McConnell has been abusing. With West Virginia having voted for Trump by a 42 point margin in 2016 and almost 40 points in 2020 I would expect Manchin to side with Republicans on many issues. I would not be surprised if he even changed his party affiliation— which would tilt majority control on all the levers of power back over to Republicans.
