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canyonwalkerIt's Tier Tuesday so time for my weekly check-in on Coronavirus statistics. This week's check of the data at The New York Times Covid in the U.S. (retrieved 3 May 2022) shows the 7-day average number as of Monday was 60,953, vs. the previous Monday's average of 49,175. That's a 24% increase in average daily reported cases.
This week's increase is a continuation of the trend of increases over the past few weeks. This week's increase of 24% is similar to last week's growth of 26% over the previous week. Similarly, 2 weeks ago there was a 21.5% increase over 3 weeks ago.
In some of my past Tier Tuesday posts I've compared the latest case rates to the rates we saw prior to the Omicron surge and in last summer's lull prior to the Delta surge. Such comparisons need to come with a major caveat. Case rates today look artificially low compared to past figures because nowadays many cases are not reported to the government health authorities. The rise in availability of at-home tests this year, coupled with people experiencing milder symptoms from the Omicron strain prevalent since December, means that fewer and fewer people who need tests go to clinics for them. Clinics are where reporting to county, then state, then national health agencies, occurs. At-home tests occur off the radar screen. Thus, while this week's average daily new case count of 60,953 seems "only" 5x higher than last summer's June lows of less than 12,000— of course, even 5x is bad— the reality is that today's figure could be double that (ie, 10x) or more due to unreported positive results.
The data that are more comparable now vs. 5+ months ago are hospitalizations and deaths. In recent weeks hospitalizations have been ticking up in tandem with reported new cases. That's not surprising. The death rate continues declining from the winter's astonishing peak. That's also not surprising, as deaths are a trailing indicator. Case rates have been increasing for only the past 3-4 weeks. Deaths will probably start to increase soon. Compared to last year, the recent hospitalization rate is only slightly higher than last June's summer lull. Ditto the death rate. These make sense as while there are significantly more cases now, the dominant Omicron strain produces less severe illness.
This week's increase is a continuation of the trend of increases over the past few weeks. This week's increase of 24% is similar to last week's growth of 26% over the previous week. Similarly, 2 weeks ago there was a 21.5% increase over 3 weeks ago.
In some of my past Tier Tuesday posts I've compared the latest case rates to the rates we saw prior to the Omicron surge and in last summer's lull prior to the Delta surge. Such comparisons need to come with a major caveat. Case rates today look artificially low compared to past figures because nowadays many cases are not reported to the government health authorities. The rise in availability of at-home tests this year, coupled with people experiencing milder symptoms from the Omicron strain prevalent since December, means that fewer and fewer people who need tests go to clinics for them. Clinics are where reporting to county, then state, then national health agencies, occurs. At-home tests occur off the radar screen. Thus, while this week's average daily new case count of 60,953 seems "only" 5x higher than last summer's June lows of less than 12,000— of course, even 5x is bad— the reality is that today's figure could be double that (ie, 10x) or more due to unreported positive results.
The data that are more comparable now vs. 5+ months ago are hospitalizations and deaths. In recent weeks hospitalizations have been ticking up in tandem with reported new cases. That's not surprising. The death rate continues declining from the winter's astonishing peak. That's also not surprising, as deaths are a trailing indicator. Case rates have been increasing for only the past 3-4 weeks. Deaths will probably start to increase soon. Compared to last year, the recent hospitalization rate is only slightly higher than last June's summer lull. Ditto the death rate. These make sense as while there are significantly more cases now, the dominant Omicron strain produces less severe illness.
