El Niño Coming
Jun. 11th, 2023 03:50 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
canyonwalkerScientists have agreed that the baby boy is on the way. ...No, this isn't a gender reveal thing, it's weather. This past Thursday the NOAA declared that the conditions for the phenomenon known as El Niño (Spanish for baby boy) are in place. A warmer patch of water has been observed in the eastern Pacific ocean off the southwestern coast of the US and Mexico. The presence of this warm water shifts the pattern of the Pacific jet stream, resulting in wetter or drier, warmer or cooler weather across the US and beyond. Example coverage: Reuters article, 8 Jun 2023; Los Angeles Times article, 9 Jun 2023.
The "main" effect of El Niño is a rainier winter in Southern California. I quote main because it's the one you're most likely to hear about— because so much of the new & entertainment media is based in Southern California. During the El Niño season of 1997-1998, for example, Tonight show host Jay Leno did a shtick about El Niño basically every night for months. That winter LA logged 31 inches of rain, more than twice its average (link: LA Almanac).
Aside from wetter conditions in Southern California and the Southwestern US, El Niño also means drier and warmer than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest across to the Midwest. Where I live, on the San Francisco Bay in California, it can go either way depending on exactly how the jet stream forms up. If it tilts up a bit to the north, it funnels warmer, wetter air toward us in the winter. That's the more likely pattern overall. But if the jet streams tips a bit further south, the SF Bay Area gets a dose of the northwest's drier winter weather.
Right now I wouldn't mind getting some warmer, drier weather. We've had tons of rain this past winter season. We even had a freaky burst of June rain this past week. And it has been cooler than normal for several months. I'm ready for some warm, dry, beautiful summer to set in!
The "main" effect of El Niño is a rainier winter in Southern California. I quote main because it's the one you're most likely to hear about— because so much of the new & entertainment media is based in Southern California. During the El Niño season of 1997-1998, for example, Tonight show host Jay Leno did a shtick about El Niño basically every night for months. That winter LA logged 31 inches of rain, more than twice its average (link: LA Almanac).
Aside from wetter conditions in Southern California and the Southwestern US, El Niño also means drier and warmer than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest across to the Midwest. Where I live, on the San Francisco Bay in California, it can go either way depending on exactly how the jet stream forms up. If it tilts up a bit to the north, it funnels warmer, wetter air toward us in the winter. That's the more likely pattern overall. But if the jet streams tips a bit further south, the SF Bay Area gets a dose of the northwest's drier winter weather.
Right now I wouldn't mind getting some warmer, drier weather. We've had tons of rain this past winter season. We even had a freaky burst of June rain this past week. And it has been cooler than normal for several months. I'm ready for some warm, dry, beautiful summer to set in!
