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canyonwalkerResults coming in from yesterday's special election show California Gov. Gavin Newsom defeating the recall attempt against him. It's not even close; he's got a 64% share of the votes currently tallied per the California Secretary of State. Understand this figure may change up or down as remaining votes are counted. It's estimated that 70% of the votes are tallied already.
Here are some of my thoughts about this election one day after, organized as Five Things:
1) A big win for Newsom; a repudiation of the recall.
Ironically following this big win by Newsom, where his 64% support is even stronger than his 61% in the 2018 general election, many news outlets are running with the narrative that Newsom has somehow been "taught a lesson" in humility. Indeed, Newsom himself used the word "humbled" in a press conference this morning. That's fucking nonsense; Newson won. Big. IMO he has even more of a mandate now to continue championing policies for public health protections against Covid-19, for prison reform, for addressing climate change, etc. I hope he acts like it!
2) Apathy didn't turn out.
Months ago the dominant news narrative about this recall was that polls showed most voters said they didn't care enough to plan to vote. Within that context of widespread apathy, the minority who were charged up to vote were the far-right partisans. As a result, polls months ago showed Newsom losing the election among likely voters. In the past several weeks the polls shifted— not to more people favoring Newsom and opposing the recall, but to more of said people telling pollsters they planned to turn out to vote. Although the estimated 42% turnout is not great on an absolute scale it's high by standards of off-cycle elections. Apathy lost this election.
3) Larry Elder's 47% share has limited meaning.
Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder crushed the field— the field of 46 candidates— on the ballot's Question Two, which asked who should replace the governor if he were recalled. Many of his supporters misrepresent this figure as a statement of his broad popularity. There are several reasons why it's not. First, it's not a measure of Elder vs. Newsom; Newsom was not eligible to run as his own recall replacement. Second, there were far fewer votes for Question Two on the ballot than Question One. Preliminary reports indicate that as many as half the people who voted left Question Two blank— a strategy encouraged by many Democrat leaders— or wrote in a candidate (as if 46 choices weren't enough). What Elder's commanding plurality does show is that Trump-style extremist clowns are likely to become the face of Republic politics in California. In the past many election cycles GOP gubernatorial candidates have been pro-big business, anti-immigration, anti-environment, tough-on-crime types. Elder is all of that plus also a conspiracy theory-spouting, science-denying liar who wants to re-litigate the culture wars of the past 50 years. Ugh.
4) Voting access FTW!
While Republican-led states around the country are erecting new barriers to make it tougher for eligible citizens to vote, California continues to lead the way in making it easier. In this election every registered voter was mailed a ballot a few weeks ahead of time. We voters had several choices for how to vote it. We could: a) take the ballot to a polling station on September 14 and complete it there; b) fill it out ahead of time and drop it off at a polling station on the 14th; c) vote in person at one of various early-voting stations days ahead of time; d) drop a completed and sealed ballot in a locked ballot box; or e) mail the ballot in, postmarked by Sept 14 and received by county election officials by Sept 21. Hawk and I chose option (d), using a ballot box in front of the city library across the street from City Hall.
5) The recall needs reform.
California's unusual recall system is a relic of the Progressive Era in the early 1900s. Back then reformers sought to create relief valves against the worst excesses of the plutocratic Gilded Age, when government leaders weren't just in the pockets of big businesses such as railroads and utilities but often owned such businesses themselves. The problem with this 100+ year old recall system is that there are no checks-and-balances on it. Recallers only need get a certain percentage of signatures on petitions; then the state must schedule a recall election. Especially as the GOP minority are signaling that recall drives will be a permanent state of affairs, as they perpetually attempt to disrupt the political majority, the recall needs reform. A few common sense reform ideas are: a) requiring actual cause for a governor to be recalled, b) legislating that in the event of a recall the Lt. Governor takes over as Governor, and c) requiring that the recall ballot coincide with a regular election to avoid the distorted turnout of the election being at some random time during the year.
This blog was updated 2:58pm PDT Tuesday, 15 Sep 2021, for clarity.
Here are some of my thoughts about this election one day after, organized as Five Things:
1) A big win for Newsom; a repudiation of the recall.
Ironically following this big win by Newsom, where his 64% support is even stronger than his 61% in the 2018 general election, many news outlets are running with the narrative that Newsom has somehow been "taught a lesson" in humility. Indeed, Newsom himself used the word "humbled" in a press conference this morning. That's fucking nonsense; Newson won. Big. IMO he has even more of a mandate now to continue championing policies for public health protections against Covid-19, for prison reform, for addressing climate change, etc. I hope he acts like it!
2) Apathy didn't turn out.
Months ago the dominant news narrative about this recall was that polls showed most voters said they didn't care enough to plan to vote. Within that context of widespread apathy, the minority who were charged up to vote were the far-right partisans. As a result, polls months ago showed Newsom losing the election among likely voters. In the past several weeks the polls shifted— not to more people favoring Newsom and opposing the recall, but to more of said people telling pollsters they planned to turn out to vote. Although the estimated 42% turnout is not great on an absolute scale it's high by standards of off-cycle elections. Apathy lost this election.
3) Larry Elder's 47% share has limited meaning.
Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder crushed the field— the field of 46 candidates— on the ballot's Question Two, which asked who should replace the governor if he were recalled. Many of his supporters misrepresent this figure as a statement of his broad popularity. There are several reasons why it's not. First, it's not a measure of Elder vs. Newsom; Newsom was not eligible to run as his own recall replacement. Second, there were far fewer votes for Question Two on the ballot than Question One. Preliminary reports indicate that as many as half the people who voted left Question Two blank— a strategy encouraged by many Democrat leaders— or wrote in a candidate (as if 46 choices weren't enough). What Elder's commanding plurality does show is that Trump-style extremist clowns are likely to become the face of Republic politics in California. In the past many election cycles GOP gubernatorial candidates have been pro-big business, anti-immigration, anti-environment, tough-on-crime types. Elder is all of that plus also a conspiracy theory-spouting, science-denying liar who wants to re-litigate the culture wars of the past 50 years. Ugh.
4) Voting access FTW!
While Republican-led states around the country are erecting new barriers to make it tougher for eligible citizens to vote, California continues to lead the way in making it easier. In this election every registered voter was mailed a ballot a few weeks ahead of time. We voters had several choices for how to vote it. We could: a) take the ballot to a polling station on September 14 and complete it there; b) fill it out ahead of time and drop it off at a polling station on the 14th; c) vote in person at one of various early-voting stations days ahead of time; d) drop a completed and sealed ballot in a locked ballot box; or e) mail the ballot in, postmarked by Sept 14 and received by county election officials by Sept 21. Hawk and I chose option (d), using a ballot box in front of the city library across the street from City Hall.
5) The recall needs reform.
California's unusual recall system is a relic of the Progressive Era in the early 1900s. Back then reformers sought to create relief valves against the worst excesses of the plutocratic Gilded Age, when government leaders weren't just in the pockets of big businesses such as railroads and utilities but often owned such businesses themselves. The problem with this 100+ year old recall system is that there are no checks-and-balances on it. Recallers only need get a certain percentage of signatures on petitions; then the state must schedule a recall election. Especially as the GOP minority are signaling that recall drives will be a permanent state of affairs, as they perpetually attempt to disrupt the political majority, the recall needs reform. A few common sense reform ideas are: a) requiring actual cause for a governor to be recalled, b) legislating that in the event of a recall the Lt. Governor takes over as Governor, and c) requiring that the recall ballot coincide with a regular election to avoid the distorted turnout of the election being at some random time during the year.
This blog was updated 2:58pm PDT Tuesday, 15 Sep 2021, for clarity.
no subject
Date: 2021-09-15 09:34 pm (UTC)I'm told that this is the sixth recall attempt against Newsom, which is mindboggling. The ROI on recall, vs. running an actual election, is clearly too high. I hope this gets changed and soon.
Separately, I'm glad the margin was high enough that the whole "it's rigged, they cheated" story has gone by the wayside. I'm surprised but not shocked that Elder had a website devoted to the story of the election's rigging which was accidentally revealed on Monday.
no subject
Date: 2021-09-15 10:05 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2021-09-17 03:43 am (UTC)iswydt