Preliminary Results - California 2022 Props

Yesterday was Election Day in the US. Preliminary results are coming in. While many races are too close to call, the results in California's seven ballot propositions are becoming fairly clear. Here's what I see so far on California's Secretary of State page (retrieved 9am Nov. 9, 2022):

Proposition Title		My Vote	Preliminary Result
1	Constitutional Right to Reproductive Freedom	YES	YES (65% vs. 35%)
26	Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands	NO	NO (70% vs. 30%)
27	Online Sports Wagering Outside of Tribal Lands	NO	NO (83% vs. 17%)
28	Public School Arts and Music Education Funding	NO	YES (61% vs. 39%)
29	Regulates Kidney Dialysis Clinics	NO	NO (70% vs. 30%)
30	Tax to Fund EVs and Wildfire Programs	NO	NO (59% vs. 41%)
31	Prohibition on Sale of Certain Tobacco Products	YES	YES (62% vs. 38%)

So, California took my recommendations on 6/7 of the props. 🤣

But seriously, I'm glad the majority of the people came to conclusions similar to mine on most of the propositions. The one that didn't go my way I'm not too surprised about. As I noted in my recommendations earlier this week, school funding is a sympathetic issue— even if the prop doesn't create new funding but merely creates another lock-in tying the hands of legislators when recessions and necessary budget cuts roll around.

Related blogs:

• How California Ballot Props Work
• The Problems with Ballot Props
• Recommendations on Props 1, 26, 27
• Recommendations on Props 28-31

Tech Industry Layoffs

Recently a few high profile tech companies have announced layoffs. Last week it was Twitter, with new boss Elon Musk quickly moving to fire 3,700 people, half the company. He moved so fast the company the next day tried to hire back some of the people it dismissed because they were critical to projects Musk still wanted to ship. Today Meta, the parent company of Facebook, announced layoffs of 11,000 staff, 13% of its workforce.

These layoffs concern me because they may indicate an emerging trend. And yes, it's more than just two companies. Twitter and Facebook are household names; but several other Bay Area tech companies (e.g., Lyft, Opendoor, and Stripe) announced layoffs last week, too. My own employer had a small round of layoffs last month.

People have been predicting a recession for most of 2022 already. In July the simplest technical definition of a recession was met. I pointed out at the time that it takes more than 2 quarters of minor economic contraction to really make a recession. In particular hiring and job growth were still going strong. If that's turning downward now, though we could be in for a real recession soon. And if we're headed into a real recession, cuts like that <10% layoff my employer had may just be the start.