Game of Thrones S4 Wrap-up: Predictions
Oct. 9th, 2022 10:30 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
canyonwalkerHaving finished watching Game of Thrones season 4 recently I want to share my predictions about what will happen next in the story-world. I know I could simply turn to any number of sources to find out exactly what happens next; the books and the TV series were completed a few years ago. But I'm enjoying going through it one episode at a time, striving very much to avoid spoilers. While my predictions at this point may be somewhat laughable to the millions who already know the actual outcome, I will write them down here— for my own future amusement, if nothing else.
Tyrion's murder of his father, Tywin, in S4E10 is a pivotal moment in the story. Yes, it's a pivotal moment for his character, but it's also pivotal for the world. House Lannister had just brought the lords of Westeros in line under its rule. Tywin's skill and cunning were central to that. Without him.... King Tommen is too young to understand what to do. His (secret) father Jaime Lannister is not ruler material and doesn't want to rule anyway. His mother, Queen Regent Cersei, clearly wants to rule but is not that smart. Oh, she's manipulative and scheming and unabashedly evil. The problem is, she can't see past her own ego. She'll make many poor decisions because she's so short-sighted, and that will be her family's undoing. Other noble houses will peel away from her weak, ineffective, and vengeful rule. House Lannister will shrink to be a small player in the Game of Thrones, as even its historical monetary wealth has shriveled through years of costly war, financial mismanagement, and gold mines run dry.
Meanwhile, attention is shifting to the north. It was evident from S1E1 that the coming winter and its monsters would be an existential threat, rendering all the Game of Thrones-playing in the south a bit like fighting over deck chairs on the Titanic. In season 4 one powerful leader, Stannis Baratheon, is guided toward this true threat and points his armies north... although what he does first is subdue the army of the free people north of the wall. I believe Stannis will figure out what the real threat is and, though his sense of duty, face it. He'll probably be the first to die from it, though, as he's not great at convincing the other noble families of Westeros to join him.
Tyrion is fleeing to Essos, and Varys is with him. If Tyrion were by himself, which was Varys's original plan (before Tyrion murdered Tywin, causing Varys to fear for his own life at Cersei's vengeful hand), he'd probably just drink himself into a stupor there and die wallowing in self pity. But Varys is a schemer and a person who can help give Tyrion direction. I see them making their way to Daenerys and throwing their lot in with her as advisors. I don't know what they'd actually do to help her— they don't have armies or even any political loyalties— but I see that as Varys's only possible plan at this point.
Edited to add: Sansa Stark had an interesting character pivot late in Season 4. After Petyr Baelish killed his newlywed wife, Lady Lysa Arryn, in cold blood, Sansa cast her lot with him by lying to defend him at his trial. In making this move Sansa showed she's learning to play in the Game of Thrones.... but that's just one good move, and she's still clearly a noob versus other very skilled— and deadly— players.
I predict Sansa's character arc being one of continued tragedy. I don't mean that she'll die.... It's unlikely that will happen as she has Baelish protecting her, both for her Stark name being a key to his aspiration to consolidate his power over the north en route to the Iron Throne and for his (creepy) personal infatuation with her. But in Baelish's constant machinations to get ahead, I see him killing her surviving brothers who have a stronger claim than his to rule the north. Sansa won't be the one to kill her brothers, nor will she even be asked to make a choice. She'll be an instrument of their deaths without realizing it until too late. That's how I see her being a tragic figure.
Spoiler policy: No spoilers beyond Season 4, here or in the comments.
Tyrion's murder of his father, Tywin, in S4E10 is a pivotal moment in the story. Yes, it's a pivotal moment for his character, but it's also pivotal for the world. House Lannister had just brought the lords of Westeros in line under its rule. Tywin's skill and cunning were central to that. Without him.... King Tommen is too young to understand what to do. His (secret) father Jaime Lannister is not ruler material and doesn't want to rule anyway. His mother, Queen Regent Cersei, clearly wants to rule but is not that smart. Oh, she's manipulative and scheming and unabashedly evil. The problem is, she can't see past her own ego. She'll make many poor decisions because she's so short-sighted, and that will be her family's undoing. Other noble houses will peel away from her weak, ineffective, and vengeful rule. House Lannister will shrink to be a small player in the Game of Thrones, as even its historical monetary wealth has shriveled through years of costly war, financial mismanagement, and gold mines run dry.
Meanwhile, attention is shifting to the north. It was evident from S1E1 that the coming winter and its monsters would be an existential threat, rendering all the Game of Thrones-playing in the south a bit like fighting over deck chairs on the Titanic. In season 4 one powerful leader, Stannis Baratheon, is guided toward this true threat and points his armies north... although what he does first is subdue the army of the free people north of the wall. I believe Stannis will figure out what the real threat is and, though his sense of duty, face it. He'll probably be the first to die from it, though, as he's not great at convincing the other noble families of Westeros to join him.
Tyrion is fleeing to Essos, and Varys is with him. If Tyrion were by himself, which was Varys's original plan (before Tyrion murdered Tywin, causing Varys to fear for his own life at Cersei's vengeful hand), he'd probably just drink himself into a stupor there and die wallowing in self pity. But Varys is a schemer and a person who can help give Tyrion direction. I see them making their way to Daenerys and throwing their lot in with her as advisors. I don't know what they'd actually do to help her— they don't have armies or even any political loyalties— but I see that as Varys's only possible plan at this point.
Edited to add: Sansa Stark had an interesting character pivot late in Season 4. After Petyr Baelish killed his newlywed wife, Lady Lysa Arryn, in cold blood, Sansa cast her lot with him by lying to defend him at his trial. In making this move Sansa showed she's learning to play in the Game of Thrones.... but that's just one good move, and she's still clearly a noob versus other very skilled— and deadly— players.
I predict Sansa's character arc being one of continued tragedy. I don't mean that she'll die.... It's unlikely that will happen as she has Baelish protecting her, both for her Stark name being a key to his aspiration to consolidate his power over the north en route to the Iron Throne and for his (creepy) personal infatuation with her. But in Baelish's constant machinations to get ahead, I see him killing her surviving brothers who have a stronger claim than his to rule the north. Sansa won't be the one to kill her brothers, nor will she even be asked to make a choice. She'll be an instrument of their deaths without realizing it until too late. That's how I see her being a tragic figure.
Spoiler policy: No spoilers beyond Season 4, here or in the comments.
no subject
Date: 2022-10-10 08:33 am (UTC)I hope it's not regarded as a spoiler to say that I heard a lot of reactions to the end of the series were, "Whaaaaa?" Followed by the usual internet chaos.
no subject
Date: 2022-10-10 02:33 pm (UTC)For those who are interested in a non-spoiler source, I found an article on Polygon from July this year. It confirms that the creators of the series made their own storyline past the end of the 5th book, that Martin still says the plan is 7 books, and that the books' conclusion will be different from the TV show.
The article's main source, incidentally, is George R. R. Martin's blog. When I saw that I was like, OMG, somebody else is still writing a blog like it's 2011!