Red Wave Slowed to a Trickle
Nov. 11th, 2022 04:17 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
canyonwalkerSome political pundits expected a "Red Wave" this election cycle, with the Republican party taking sizable majorities in both the House and Senate. The wave has turned out to be more of a trickle, though. With the vote tally for 3 Senate seats still undecided, Republicans have won (or are forecast to win) 49 versus Democrats' 48. Either party could eke out a narrow majority. In the House, Republicans are on their way to a slim majority— though enough races remain toss-ups that Democrats could retain a majority if they sweep the races currently too close to call.
Why was a "Red Wave" expected? There are a few typical patterns. For one, the party of the president usually loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. That's because the president's party usually sweep into majorities in Congress "riding his coattails" during the presidential election; then the electorate reverts to the mean 2 years later. Another typical pattern is that whenever the economy's doing poorly the party in power is punished. It's debatable whether the economy is doing poorly in 2022— on the positive side, job growth and wage growth are both strong— but there's definitely widespread dissatisfaction with inflation.
These patterns are not rules, just things that usually happen. Beyond these broad strokes, Democrats failed to control their own messaging this cycle. Republicans ran circles around them, redefining not only which issues voters should pay attention to but skewing voters' understanding of them through disinformation that Democrats failed to counter effectively. In the last weeks before the election polls suggested Republicans would sweep to majorities in both houses.
So, what happened to slow the red wave to a red trickle? It's still a bit early to tell. Not only are enough races still undecided that control of both chambers is still undecided, but the analysis on who voted how and why is not in yet. One idea I read today is that young peopled vote in stronger numbers than they have for the past decade. The younger vote skews Democrat normally, and in the current political alignment that's extra true. Key issues animating younger voters today— reproductive rights and climate change— favor the Democrats. But that's just a hypothesis right now. We'll see how it looks as more of the results come in.
Why was a "Red Wave" expected? There are a few typical patterns. For one, the party of the president usually loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. That's because the president's party usually sweep into majorities in Congress "riding his coattails" during the presidential election; then the electorate reverts to the mean 2 years later. Another typical pattern is that whenever the economy's doing poorly the party in power is punished. It's debatable whether the economy is doing poorly in 2022— on the positive side, job growth and wage growth are both strong— but there's definitely widespread dissatisfaction with inflation.
These patterns are not rules, just things that usually happen. Beyond these broad strokes, Democrats failed to control their own messaging this cycle. Republicans ran circles around them, redefining not only which issues voters should pay attention to but skewing voters' understanding of them through disinformation that Democrats failed to counter effectively. In the last weeks before the election polls suggested Republicans would sweep to majorities in both houses.
So, what happened to slow the red wave to a red trickle? It's still a bit early to tell. Not only are enough races still undecided that control of both chambers is still undecided, but the analysis on who voted how and why is not in yet. One idea I read today is that young peopled vote in stronger numbers than they have for the past decade. The younger vote skews Democrat normally, and in the current political alignment that's extra true. Key issues animating younger voters today— reproductive rights and climate change— favor the Democrats. But that's just a hypothesis right now. We'll see how it looks as more of the results come in.
