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canyonwalkerLate, late at night Friday night, technically early morning Saturday in Washington, D.C., Representative Kevin McCarthy won the final vote necessary to become Speaker of the House. It was on the fourth day and 15th round of voting— a number of re-votes that hasn't been necessary in the US in over 160 years, since before the Civil War. And even there it came down to the last moments. Representative Matt Gaetz, one of the core holdouts against McCarthy, signaled in the final seconds of a motion to adjourn after the failed 14th round of voting that he would vote against adjournment— a signal McCarthy read as indicating he was ready to make a deal1.
Well, what deals did McCarthy make along the way to gain the votes to win as Speaker? There are things we know about and things we don't. Here are Five Things:
1) The Motion to Vacate
One of the most widely reported concessions McCarthy made is lowering the threshold for a "Motion to Vacate". This is a rule by which House member(s) can force a new election for Speaker. The current rule in Congress is that the motion needs a majority of the majority party to trigger it. Under this key concession, any single member can trigger it. Many political observers, not to mention many representatives themselves, say this means that the Speaker will be held hostage by fringe members who can call for a no-confidence vote— and thus paralyze the House— whenever McCarthy displeases them. How likely is this threat to control what McCarthy does? Well, just look at how hard (15 rounds!) he fought to win the job. This is a man with no principles who wants this job more than anything.
2) Make it harder to raise the Debt Ceiling
Another key concession McCarthy made is that efforts to raise the nation’s debt ceiling must be paired with spending cuts. This compromise is a catastrophe waiting to happen. The Debt Ceiling is not a spending act. It's not a time to debate what's in the budget. By the time the debt limit comes into play, the budget is already long set. The question in the debt ceiling matter is whether the US government can continue to pay its bills. If it doesn't it defaults, causing who-knows-what level of involuntary shutdown. We don't know what because thankfully it's never happened— though Republicans in Congress have forced such showdowns several times in recent years. Each time it's a manufactured crisis that excites right wing hardliners at the cost of shaking the world's confidence that the US government will actually, y'know, pay its bills.
3) Conspiracy theory-driven investigations
McCarthy agreed to create a special subcommittee on the "Weaponization of the Federal Government to investigate the Biden administration's assault on the constitutional rights of American citizens." This issue of "weaponization" is a new hobby horse of the 2020 election deniers, who now decry the prosecution of rioters who stormed the Capitol on Jan 6. Basically this is an "investigate the investigators" ploy— and even worse, an "investigate the witnesses" sham. Oh, and expect them to dredge up all their conspiracy theories about Covid and key public health leaders, too.
4) Votes on key right wing issues
One of the Speaker's powers is determining when bills are voted on. Speakers often decline to schedule votes on bills proposed by the minority party. They can also bottle up bills proposed by members of their own party, thwarting votes on divisive issues that are popular with hardliners but politically damaging to mainstream party members. McCarthy promised that he will schedule votes on key conservative bills, including a balanced budget amendment, congressional term limits, and border security. Count on these being the right wing tilting at its favorite windmills. The bills are unlikely to go anywhere even if they do win a majority vote in the House. The Democrat majority in the Senate is likely to oppose them, and President Joe Biden is almost certain to veto them. One bit of good that might come out of this is Republicans going on record with votes that are unpopular with centrists and independents, giving strength to their Democrat challengers in 2024.
5) Committee roles for hardliners
McCarthy agreed to give more committee seats to members of the hardliner Freedom Caucus, including seats on the powerful Rules Committee. It's also reported that in an early round of negotiation Gaetz asked McCarthy for chairmanship of the House Armed Services Committee. McCarthy insisted, "No promises," but others are suspicious. Consider that after the 14th failed round of voting, that the man currently slated for that chairmanship, Rep. Mike Rogers, lunged at Gaetz and had to be physically restrained by at least one fellow member. Even members of McCarthy's own party fret that he's given away the house to be Speaker.
Note that none of these concessions are sure things yet. House rules changes have to be approved by a majority vote. That should be one of the first orders of business this coming week. Committee assignments— which are the privilege of the Speaker— are another. And votes will be scheduled as they're scheduled.
[1] Even so, Gaetz didn't vote for McCarthy but merely switched his vote from other candidates to "present", lowering the threshold of votes McCarthy needed to win.
Well, what deals did McCarthy make along the way to gain the votes to win as Speaker? There are things we know about and things we don't. Here are Five Things:
1) The Motion to Vacate
One of the most widely reported concessions McCarthy made is lowering the threshold for a "Motion to Vacate". This is a rule by which House member(s) can force a new election for Speaker. The current rule in Congress is that the motion needs a majority of the majority party to trigger it. Under this key concession, any single member can trigger it. Many political observers, not to mention many representatives themselves, say this means that the Speaker will be held hostage by fringe members who can call for a no-confidence vote— and thus paralyze the House— whenever McCarthy displeases them. How likely is this threat to control what McCarthy does? Well, just look at how hard (15 rounds!) he fought to win the job. This is a man with no principles who wants this job more than anything.
2) Make it harder to raise the Debt Ceiling
Another key concession McCarthy made is that efforts to raise the nation’s debt ceiling must be paired with spending cuts. This compromise is a catastrophe waiting to happen. The Debt Ceiling is not a spending act. It's not a time to debate what's in the budget. By the time the debt limit comes into play, the budget is already long set. The question in the debt ceiling matter is whether the US government can continue to pay its bills. If it doesn't it defaults, causing who-knows-what level of involuntary shutdown. We don't know what because thankfully it's never happened— though Republicans in Congress have forced such showdowns several times in recent years. Each time it's a manufactured crisis that excites right wing hardliners at the cost of shaking the world's confidence that the US government will actually, y'know, pay its bills.
3) Conspiracy theory-driven investigations
McCarthy agreed to create a special subcommittee on the "Weaponization of the Federal Government to investigate the Biden administration's assault on the constitutional rights of American citizens." This issue of "weaponization" is a new hobby horse of the 2020 election deniers, who now decry the prosecution of rioters who stormed the Capitol on Jan 6. Basically this is an "investigate the investigators" ploy— and even worse, an "investigate the witnesses" sham. Oh, and expect them to dredge up all their conspiracy theories about Covid and key public health leaders, too.
4) Votes on key right wing issues
One of the Speaker's powers is determining when bills are voted on. Speakers often decline to schedule votes on bills proposed by the minority party. They can also bottle up bills proposed by members of their own party, thwarting votes on divisive issues that are popular with hardliners but politically damaging to mainstream party members. McCarthy promised that he will schedule votes on key conservative bills, including a balanced budget amendment, congressional term limits, and border security. Count on these being the right wing tilting at its favorite windmills. The bills are unlikely to go anywhere even if they do win a majority vote in the House. The Democrat majority in the Senate is likely to oppose them, and President Joe Biden is almost certain to veto them. One bit of good that might come out of this is Republicans going on record with votes that are unpopular with centrists and independents, giving strength to their Democrat challengers in 2024.
5) Committee roles for hardliners
McCarthy agreed to give more committee seats to members of the hardliner Freedom Caucus, including seats on the powerful Rules Committee. It's also reported that in an early round of negotiation Gaetz asked McCarthy for chairmanship of the House Armed Services Committee. McCarthy insisted, "No promises," but others are suspicious. Consider that after the 14th failed round of voting, that the man currently slated for that chairmanship, Rep. Mike Rogers, lunged at Gaetz and had to be physically restrained by at least one fellow member. Even members of McCarthy's own party fret that he's given away the house to be Speaker.
Note that none of these concessions are sure things yet. House rules changes have to be approved by a majority vote. That should be one of the first orders of business this coming week. Committee assignments— which are the privilege of the Speaker— are another. And votes will be scheduled as they're scheduled.
[1] Even so, Gaetz didn't vote for McCarthy but merely switched his vote from other candidates to "present", lowering the threshold of votes McCarthy needed to win.
