So Many Republican Candidates
Jun. 2nd, 2023 08:24 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
canyonwalkerThe field of Republican candidates vying for the presidential nomination is growing. With Ron DeSantis's completely unsurprising announcement last week (May 24) the pool is now 8. The others who've already thrown their hats in the ring are Larry Elder, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamey, Tim Scott, and Corey Stapleton— in addition to Donald Trump, who announced his candidacy just 7 days after election day 2022. And Mike Pence and Chris Christie are expected to announce their candidacies by next week, bringing the number to 10.
The Republican field is not just growing, it's getting overstuffed. It's like a Republican candidate clown car.
It's reminiscent of this point in 2015, when the Republican field for the 2016 election was growing toward a whopping 17 candidates. We all know what happened with that overcrowded field. It made a great opportunity for Donald Trump to emerge as the leader.
Does the growing field this time around mean that Trump's likely to be the GOP nominee again? I say it does.
Trump beat the huge field of Republican contenders 8 years ago because he built a solid base of support. He built that base by appealing to the radicalized end of the Republican electorate that was already there. For the approximately one-third of the base who'd already been marinating in White Christian nationalism, belief in hocus-pocus policy promises and conspiracy theories, and distrust of mainstream institutions for years if not decades, Trump was the well funded politician who finally said all the quiet parts out loud. Followers stuck to him like glue. Indeed, Trump boasted in his own bombastic way in January 2016, "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters." [Example reporting: CNN article 23 Jan 2016]
In 2015 no other candidate was strong enough, individually, to beat him, and none of them could figure out how to pull together to beat him collectively. Yes, there was a "Never Trump" movement, but not enough political leaders were willing to cross that one-third of the base to join it. Soon some decided "If you can't beat him, join him" was the way to increasing their own power and influence in the party, and the result was sealed. We got Trump as the nominee in 2016.
The same thing is shaping up to happen again in 2024. Will anyone in the GOP be wiser this time? Based on actions to date it looks like "No."
The Republican field is not just growing, it's getting overstuffed. It's like a Republican candidate clown car.
It's reminiscent of this point in 2015, when the Republican field for the 2016 election was growing toward a whopping 17 candidates. We all know what happened with that overcrowded field. It made a great opportunity for Donald Trump to emerge as the leader.
Does the growing field this time around mean that Trump's likely to be the GOP nominee again? I say it does.
Trump beat the huge field of Republican contenders 8 years ago because he built a solid base of support. He built that base by appealing to the radicalized end of the Republican electorate that was already there. For the approximately one-third of the base who'd already been marinating in White Christian nationalism, belief in hocus-pocus policy promises and conspiracy theories, and distrust of mainstream institutions for years if not decades, Trump was the well funded politician who finally said all the quiet parts out loud. Followers stuck to him like glue. Indeed, Trump boasted in his own bombastic way in January 2016, "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters." [Example reporting: CNN article 23 Jan 2016]
In 2015 no other candidate was strong enough, individually, to beat him, and none of them could figure out how to pull together to beat him collectively. Yes, there was a "Never Trump" movement, but not enough political leaders were willing to cross that one-third of the base to join it. Soon some decided "If you can't beat him, join him" was the way to increasing their own power and influence in the party, and the result was sealed. We got Trump as the nominee in 2016.
The same thing is shaping up to happen again in 2024. Will anyone in the GOP be wiser this time? Based on actions to date it looks like "No."
