Traveling on Points and Cash, Sep 2021

We paid for our recent trip to Washington's Olympic Peninsula with a combination of points and cash. We've got a trip planned in two weekends when we'll use points to pay part of the way, too, plus a trip we're considered but haven't yet booked in October. Let me break down a bit about how this works.

First, where the points come from. In years past I earned most of them from actual travel. I fly, I stay, I earn points with airlines and hotels. As business travel has been on hold the past 18 months, though, I've shifted to earning most of my points through adroit play of credit card offers. Credit card deals aren't new. In fact they're thinner now than 5 years ago. It's just that with travel so reduced in the C-19 pandemic era credit cards make up a bigger share my points earning.

Next, how to use points. Some look at this credit card points game and think, "What free trip can I win from this?" The thing is, it's not that simple. For one, the points don't buy a trip, they buy part of a trip— an airplane flight, a night or a few nights at a hotel, free days on a rental car, etc. You're redeeming for these a la carte, usually with different points currencies. Two, just because there's a way to buy something with points doesn't mean it's a good deal. You've got to shop carefully to get maximum value— or anywhere close to it.

On our recent trip, for example, I split the airfare. We used points to fly to Seattle and paid cash to fly home. That's because there was a good points rate available for Thursday night. Monday evening demand was higher because everyone was looking to come home from a holiday weekend, and the good points rates were all gone. Oh, there were still points rates; they just weren't good. So I opted to pay cash instead. (And earn more points!)

We also split our hotel nights between points and cash. Thursday night we stayed on points at a Holiday Inn Express. (Actually it wasn't points, it was a free-night certificate from a credit card, but the basic idea is the same— it's not cash.) For our 3 nights in Port Angeles we paid cash. That wasn't because points rates were poor, though. It was because there were no hotels we could use points at less than a half hour away. Having the right location was way more valuable than cashing in points at a cost of an extra hour of driving each day. That's another lesson in why it's important to understand that points buy parts of trips, not whole free trips. With airline and hotel points you're limited at where you can redeem them, and it's sometimes way too limiting.

Newsom Wins Recall Election. It's Not Even Close.

Results coming in from yesterday's special election show California Gov. Gavin Newsom defeating the recall attempt against him. It's not even close; he's got a 64% share of the votes currently tallied per the California Secretary of State. Understand this figure may change up or down as remaining votes are counted. It's estimated that 70% of the votes are tallied already.

Here are some of my thoughts about this election one day after, organized as Five Things:

1) A big win for Newsom; a repudiation of the recall.
Ironically following this big win by Newsom, where his 64% support is even stronger than his 61% in the 2018 general election, many news outlets are running with the narrative that Newsom has somehow been "taught a lesson" in humility. Indeed, Newsom himself used the word "humbled" in a press conference this morning. That's fucking nonsense; Newson won. Big. IMO he has even more of a mandate now to continue championing policies for public health protections against Covid-19, for prison reform, for addressing climate change, etc. I hope he acts like it!

2) Apathy didn't turn out.
Months ago the dominant news narrative about this recall was that polls showed most voters said they didn't care enough to plan to vote. Within that context of widespread apathy, the minority who were charged up to vote were the far-right partisans. As a result, polls months ago showed Newsom losing the election among likely voters. In the past several weeks the polls shifted— not to more people favoring Newsom and opposing the recall, but to more of said people telling pollsters they planned to turn out to vote. Although the estimated 42% turnout is not great on an absolute scale it's high by standards of off-cycle elections. Apathy lost this election.

3) Larry Elder's 47% share has limited meaning.
Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder crushed the field— the field of 46 candidates— on the ballot's Question Two, which asked who should replace the governor if he were recalled. Many of his supporters misrepresent this figure as a statement of his broad popularity. There are several reasons why it's not. First, it's not a measure of Elder vs. Newsom; Newsom was not eligible to run as his own recall replacement. Second, there were far fewer votes for Question Two on the ballot than Question One. Preliminary reports indicate that as many as half the people who voted left Question Two blank— a strategy encouraged by many Democrat leaders— or wrote in a candidate (as if 46 choices weren't enough). What Elder's commanding plurality does show is that Trump-style extremist clowns are likely to become the face of Republic politics in California. In the past many election cycles GOP gubernatorial candidates have been pro-big business, anti-immigration, anti-environment, tough-on-crime types. Elder is all of that plus also a conspiracy theory-spouting, science-denying liar who wants to re-litigate the culture wars of the past 50 years. Ugh.

4) Voting access FTW!
While Republican-led states around the country are erecting new barriers to make it tougher for eligible citizens to vote, California continues to lead the way in making it easier. In this election every registered voter was mailed a ballot a few weeks ahead of time. We voters had several choices for how to vote it. We could: a) take the ballot to a polling station on September 14 and complete it there; b) fill it out ahead of time and drop it off at a polling station on the 14th; c) vote in person at one of various early-voting stations days ahead of time; d) drop a completed and sealed ballot in a locked ballot box; or e) mail the ballot in, postmarked by Sept 14 and received by county election officials by Sept 21. Hawk and I chose option (d), using a ballot box in front of the city library across the street from City Hall.

5) The recall needs reform.
California's unusual recall system is a relic of the Progressive Era in the early 1900s. Back then reformers sought to create relief valves against the worst excesses of the plutocratic Gilded Age, when government leaders weren't just in the pockets of big businesses such as railroads and utilities but often owned such businesses themselves. The problem with this 100+ year old recall system is that there are no checks-and-balances on it. Recallers only need get a certain percentage of signatures on petitions; then the state must schedule a recall election. Especially as the GOP minority are signaling that recall drives will be a  permanent state of affairs, as they perpetually attempt to disrupt the political majority, the recall needs reform. A few common sense reform ideas are: a) requiring actual cause for a governor to be recalled, b) legislating that in the event of a recall the Lt. Governor takes over as Governor, and c) requiring that the recall ballot coincide with a regular election to avoid the distorted turnout of the election being at some random time during the year.

This blog was updated 2:58pm PDT Tuesday, 15 Sep 2021, for clarity.

The Sopranos - First Episode

Yesterday I mentioned I've started watching The Sopranos from the first episode. Not a re-watch; for the first time. Several things struck me about the first episode: about the characters, the dialogue, and the acting. Here are my thoughts organized as Five Things:

1) The acting is tight for a pilot. I'm accustomed to it taking actors in new shows, in new roles, a few episodes to really get into their characters. For example, I really loved the series The Shield years ago, but the pilot was a bit uneven in term of acting. Lead Michael Chiklis was only 95% into his role as hard-boiled, dirty cop Vic Mackey. Having come from softer, safe-for-family shows with a humorous bent, he delivered gangster lines with a cock of his head and a twinkle in his eye like he was cuing the laugh track. I noticed a writing misstep, too, in the form of too many named supporting characters. These were fixed by the third episode. So I was ready to forgive small missteps in the first episode or two of The Sopranos. Except there weren't any. I'm really impressed with how James Gandolfini nails it as Tony Soprano in s1ep1

2) Gandolfini delivers a great line. Tony Soprano tells his therapist, "It's good to be in something from the ground floor. I came too late for that, I know. But lately I'm getting the feeling that I came in at the end. The best is over."

Watch on YouTube

This line captures an angst I've felt several times in my life— that a role or place or thing I had prepared for in life; that I had prepared for because my parents, teachers, or elders had guided me to prepare for it, was basically over by the time I got there. That I'd been given guidance too late and there was little if any value left to be had once I arrived.

3) Tony's disdain of "people today" is even more relevant today. Gandolfini follows that famous line above by complaining vaguely about people today. Here and in other scenes he cites his parents or grandparents generation for their hard work, skill, and pride in doing a job well, contrasting that to current generations who lack such character. In starting this show from 22 years ago (season 1 aired in 1999) I wondered how culturally relevant it would remain today. Tony's sneering at the work ethic of younger generations— and also specifically his distrust of Americans who aren't of White European descent— is actually more relevant today, in 2021, than 1999. That's because while this type of other-ing was fringe bigotry 20+ years ago it has evolved into the more virulent white nationalism we see embraced by one of the major political parties today.

4) Chris is going to be trouble. They're telegraphing that the character Christopher Moltisanti, played by Michael Imperioli, is going to be trouble. I think there's going to be a crisis of faith between him and Tony. One man will believe he's better off without the other around, and will do something the other can't forgive. I know, what I'm saying must sound quaint to those of you who've watched more of the series than just the first episode. You'll be all like, "OMG! Chris totally [SPOILERS] Tony after the [SPOILER] in [EPISODE] and then [SPOILER] in [LATER EPISODE." Don't tell me; I don't want spoilers!

5) What's with the priest? A Catholic priest is hanging around the Soprano home in s1e1. Tony challenges Carmella, his wife, about it, implying that there's something inappropriate going on. Carmella objects that he's just there "[H]elping me be a better Catholic." Is there something hinky going on? I guess no. While sinful Catholic priests are a familiar trope in movies and TV, in real life totally above-board relationships like that do happen. A priest at my parents' Catholic church was friendly with them and visited their house occasionaly when my younger sisters were teens. It's just the kind of outreach some priests do. They're not all old fogies locked in their naves doling out Hail Marys at confession time.