GoT S4: Whodunnit?

In Game of Thrones S4E2 a major character is murdered. There's obviously going to be hell to pay for it, so the obvious question is, Whodunnit?

Ep. 2 provides a little bit of clue immediately around the murder, in the form of a person who's involved and a person who's accused. ( S4E2 spoilers (click to open) )

"Whodunnit?" is apparently not meant to be a mystery in this series as the writers reveal more about the plot in the next two episodes. In S4E3 we see ( S4E3 spoilers (click to open) )

More detail is revealed in S4E4. ( S4E4 spoilers (click to open) )

Colleagues all Home from the Hurricane

When Hurricane Ian was barreling toward Florida last week, some of my colleagues who traveled to Orlando for the trade show decided to ride out the hurricane at the hotel. A variety of our customers did the same. I read this morning that they were all able to leave over the weekend. Most got flights out on Saturday, a few had to wait until Sunday.

This makes me more glad I scrambled to leave when I did. Recall I decided on Monday to drive 3 hours to Jacksonville to fly home on Tuesday when the soonest my original airline could get me out of Orlando was Wednesday. That Wednesday flight was subsequently canceled and the whole airport shut down for a few days.

Last Monday I decided, "If I don't get out of Florida by Tuesday I'm likely stuck 'til Sunday." That's why I scrambled with booking to another airline, renting a car— which cost about $150 including gas— and driving 3 hours. The news from my colleagues validates my choices. My estimate was accurate. And they also validated my expectation that being in a hotel, even a nice hotel, even a very nice hotel, for 4 extra days while a hurricane rages outside sucks.

Layoffs

There was a small round of layoffs at my company today. No, I was not impacted. But ironically I was thinking about the prospect of layoffs over the weekend. While many stories in the news the past several months have been about record employment and rare leverage in hiring favoring job seekers, articles in just that past few days have begun talking about layoffs. Meta, for example, which has apparently never had a layoff, just announced one.

The fact the tide of the business cycle is turning to layoffs now is unsurprising. Just over two months ago it was announced the technical definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, had started earlier this year. (One of the problems with this definition is it only recognizes a recession ~8 months after it starts.) Perhaps even more important than that is the practical definition: most people believe we are in a recession. Since I wrote that two months ago the stock market has dropped further. Friday it closed down 25% YTD. Furthermore, bears are in the majority. Investor sentiment is that it will get worse before it gets better.

Fortunately for my company and those remaining with it, this was a small layoff. Company-wide, fewer than 10% of the staff were let go. Within my department of ~30 people, only 2 were dismissed. Both were people who've been with the company about 6 months.

Update: with more perspective a day later the layoff decision looks worse. 😨