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canyonwalkerYesterday I wrote "Are We in a Recession?" noting that while a simplistic technical definition says yes, other significant factors say no. But a lot of ordinary people think we are. A recent CNN poll, for example, found that 64% think we're already in a recession. As business cycles are driven by expectations of the future, ultimately if people think we're in a recession then we are in a recession— or soon probably will be.
Okay, so why do people think we're in a recession?
I figure half of those saying we're in a recession now are the 1/3 of the country who get their news from Fox News, et. al. Conservative media have been screaming about economic collapse since... about January 6, 2021, when Congress acknowledged Joe Biden's victory in the Electoral College despite a conservative lynch mob whipped up by former president Donald Trump storming the Capitol. Morning, noon, and night they pound the table about how Democrat political leaders are villainous morons bent on destroying the US because they hate it. So of course people who get their world-view from the fever swamps think we're in a recession. They're also think we're in a socialist dictatorship led by a mentally incompetent man who stole the election through 10,000,000+ fraudulent votes.
What about the other half of the people who say we're in a recession now? Partly it's the knock-on effect of the conservative media fever swamps. When major media outlets like Fox scream that we're in a recession, other media feel compelled to cover the "story". They phrase it as a question— "Are we in a recession?"— and write stories to "cover the debate". But even asking the question, and repeating it in headlines daily, causes many people to assume the answer is yes. Or at least that "yes" is as likely an answer as "no".
It's interesting to note that the result from last week's opinion poll, "Are we in a recession?" is no different from results of similar polls three weeks ago— well before the Commerce Department's Thursday announcement that Q2 growth was -0.9%. So facts aren't changing many people's minds. Furthermore consider that the flip of the poll number, 36% who think we're not in a recession, is basically the same as President Joe Biden's approval number— which has been mired in the 30s for a year or more. So basically the recession question is just another front in the opinion war from political opponents on the right and those on the left they've frustrated by making the government dysfunctional.
Okay, so why do people think we're in a recession?
I figure half of those saying we're in a recession now are the 1/3 of the country who get their news from Fox News, et. al. Conservative media have been screaming about economic collapse since... about January 6, 2021, when Congress acknowledged Joe Biden's victory in the Electoral College despite a conservative lynch mob whipped up by former president Donald Trump storming the Capitol. Morning, noon, and night they pound the table about how Democrat political leaders are villainous morons bent on destroying the US because they hate it. So of course people who get their world-view from the fever swamps think we're in a recession. They're also think we're in a socialist dictatorship led by a mentally incompetent man who stole the election through 10,000,000+ fraudulent votes.
What about the other half of the people who say we're in a recession now? Partly it's the knock-on effect of the conservative media fever swamps. When major media outlets like Fox scream that we're in a recession, other media feel compelled to cover the "story". They phrase it as a question— "Are we in a recession?"— and write stories to "cover the debate". But even asking the question, and repeating it in headlines daily, causes many people to assume the answer is yes. Or at least that "yes" is as likely an answer as "no".
It's interesting to note that the result from last week's opinion poll, "Are we in a recession?" is no different from results of similar polls three weeks ago— well before the Commerce Department's Thursday announcement that Q2 growth was -0.9%. So facts aren't changing many people's minds. Furthermore consider that the flip of the poll number, 36% who think we're not in a recession, is basically the same as President Joe Biden's approval number— which has been mired in the 30s for a year or more. So basically the recession question is just another front in the opinion war from political opponents on the right and those on the left they've frustrated by making the government dysfunctional.
