Markets Down 19% or More in 2022

2022 was a tough year for investors. After the broad market rose 25% in 2021 investors were looking forward to a continuation in 2022. Indeed the market rose on the first two trading days of the year... but then it started falling. It never regained its highs. As the chart below shows, the S&P 500 Index finished the year 19.2% below its start (3849.28 vs. 4766.18).



I've quipped before that The Market Is Not The Economy. Well, any one market index is not even the whole market. I consider the S&P 500 the most representative for discussing overall market trends. Other indices out there are the Dow Jones, Nasdaq composite, and Russell 2000.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average— "The Dow" or DJIA for short— gets a lot of attention in daily news coverage. It's not a great representation of the market because a) it includes only 30 stocks, unlike the 500 in the S&P 500; and b) it uses a simplistic method of "price weighting". These extreme simplifications made sense in the late 1800s (!) when the index was created but are way out of date today. Yet news organizations continue to report it thousands of times every day because... well, tradition. The Dow dropped 8.8% in 2022. That would seem to be rosier news than the S&P's 19.2% drop, but as I said, it's not broadly representative. That's just what's happened with the share prices of the few largest companies.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 33%. Ouch. That index includes a lot of stocks, all ~3,100 that are listed on the Nasdaq exchange. And unlike the Dow it's weighted by market cap rather than share price, meaning the biggest companies have the most impact on it. The Nasdaq exchange is very tech-heavy, though, so it's more biased to the rises and falls of the tech industry.

Of the four indices I've named in this article the Russell 2000 gets the least attention. It's basically a small-cap index. It's compiled by taking the larger Russell 3,000 index and considering only the 2,000 smaller market-cap companies in it. That makes it a good counterpoint to the S&P 500, which is all large-cap companies. The Russell 2000 is down 21.5% for the year. That's closer to the S&P 500's 19.2% drop than the other two indexes, and it aligns with what I've experienced over the year as an investor: most companies are down for the year, and small- and mid-cap companies have had it worse than large-caps.

Blog Backlog - Putting Myself on Notice

It's the start of a new year, and already I'm way behind. I'm way behind on blogging. Oh, it's not just stuff from the 3 days (so far) of 2023; a few of these items have been stuck in my backlog for months. I'm writing this to record my thoughts and put myself on notice of the things I want to see accomplished.

• Year-end retrospectives
  
  • I've already written a few 2022 wrap-ups about travel stuff. (Done)
  • I still need to write an overall 2022 retrospective. (Update Jan 3: Done.)
• TV/streaming and movies
  
  • I still have at least one more blog to write about Chernobyl, which I watched just over a month ago now. Update Jan 10: done.
  • Recently I watched the 10-episode miniseries Band of Brothers, and want to write about that, too— though not at the same length as Chernobyl. Update Jan 14: done— well, not done, but started.
  • I've watched a few movies I want to review, Weird and The Hitman's Bodyguard. Likely by the time I get to these I'll have watched some other movie, too. Update Jan 7: Done and done.
  • Added: There's also at least one more blog I wanted to write about Game of Thrones. As I haven't written about the series in over 6 weeks now I suspect this/these may never materialize.
• Travel
  
  • Our trip to Mojave Desert is the one thing I am caught up on already. Though I thought I'd have it done by the 29th, maybe 30th, and it stretched through to the 1st. (Done)
  • In the theme of Through the Desert I noticed that there's a desert-y trip from almost 10 months ago that I never finished blogging. I'd like to create a proper blog article about it.
• Politics & current events
  
  • I've largely given up on trying to keep up with noteworthy political developments in this blog. The degree of absurdity in modern politics gets me down writing about it, plus there's just so much of it. But a few things on my mind recently are:
  • A member of Congress got elected after lying his ass off about his education, professional experience, his life experience, and even what his parents and grandparents did. Update Jan 13: done.
  • Musk's ongoing destruction of Twitter. Yes, I consider Musk's actions more about politics than business or technology now.
  • Ukraine. Wow, so much to say about what's happened there. It's like every week I don't write about it, it gets harder to start.
  • Added: As the new session of Congress gets going there are rollercoaster rides and hijinks. Update Jan 8: Done (actually spanning 4 blogs already! with surely more to come).
• Other
  • Added: Remember my "Beer Tasting 2022" series? I haven't posted to it in over 3 months! I'm several rounds behind. Update Jan 9: Posted one; more to come.
  • Added: In a similar vein I've also got a Gin Tasting post in the backlog. Update Jan 17: Done.

Well, it's a good thing I don't have any travel planned for the next several weeks. That might be enough time to catch up on most of these backlog items!

2022 Retrospective: Stuck in a Holding Pattern

Over the past several years I've made a habit of using New Year's as a time to reflect on, and take stock of, the year just finished. Recently I've posted a few retrospectives about travel. That's only one part of my life. As I've mentally composed this article about everything else I've wondered what the theme would be. Like, if there's a title for 2022: My Experience, what would it be?

It struck me over lunch today. 2022: Stuck in a Holding Pattern.

Coronavirus: The New Normal

The long shadow that Coronavirus continued to cast over 2022 is part of the feeling of being stuck in a holding pattern. I remember at the end of 2020 I expressed cautious hope that 2021 would be the year we beat Coronavirus. Vaccines with strong trial results were rolling out. It seemed the only challenge was how fast we could get to 90%+ uptake and start seeing the virus basically eradicated as has been done with smallpox and measles.

Alas by mid 2021 it was evident that people's mindsets had hardened along partisan lines, with Republicans denying that the vaccines were necessary or even worked at all. 2022 continued more of the same. There's still a stubborn 30% of the US population who refuse to be vaccinated. There's an even larger portion who oppose common-sense public health precautions like wearing masks in indoors public spaces.

Meanwhile we're seeing that the vaccines are not a "silver bullet". Unlike with smallpox and measles, the Coronavirus mutates just fast enough to work its way around vaccine induced immunity. That's not a reason not to get vaccinated, BTW. The vaccines still help, not only reducing your chances of infection by 2-3x but also reducing chances of severe symptoms by 6x.

It just feels like we never managed to fully turn the corner from 2020. It's like instead of 2020, 2021, and 2022 the years have been, movie title style:

• 2020


• 2020 Won


• 2020, Too

I'd say that 2023 is safe from 2020 homophones... except that it could still be "2020 III".

Health

I left 2022 in the same health I started it. Really I should work on getting healthier, especially losing some of the multiple spare tires I've been lugging around for years. I'm not sure when I'll break out of that holding pattern.

One upside of 2022 being same-same for me is that I didn't get Covid. Partly that's preparation: I got fully vaccinated as soon as I reasonable could, and I've gotten all the boosters available. Partly it's caution: I've continued to wear a mask in indoors public spaces and avoid the riskiest situations (aside from airports and aircraft when I travel). And partly it's just luck— or at least things I can't take credit for as deliberate choices. For example, when my spouse got Covid this past year I managed to avoid it!

Friends & Family

I'm going to damn 2022 with the same faint praise I damned 2021 with: At least nobody died.

Continuing to manage through The New Normal of the pandemic-turned-endemic meant not having as many chances to socialize with friends and family as in The Before Times. I haven't made any new friends recently that I can think of. Worse, I've chosen to fire a number of people from the position of being my friend. As I explained in Less Patience for Sucky People the forced alone time of the pandemic gave me a clearer perspective on whether people I counted as friends from years ago were still being friends or if they'd dropped down to jerks whose behavior I don't find amusing, or even tolerable, anymore.

Career

My career is definitely a "stuck in a holding pattern" situation. I continue to stick with a job where I'm underemployed and am being given no support to develop or advance meaningfully. Yes, I've requested it. A few times. Yes, I could push on it even harder— or just find a better job. But like I noted a year ago, I'm pretty much out of fucks to give. I'm being paid reasonably well, even if it is 25-40% less than I'd be making if my career hadn't been stalled the past 10 years. I believe I can retire in a few years. More on that below. Why scratch and claw to get ahead when I can relax on a glide path? There are some benefits to being in a holding pattern.

Finances

2022 has not been a great year financially. The S&P 500 was down 19% in 2022; some indexes were down even more. The silver lining to this cloud is that I actually beat the index in the non-retirement accounts I manage. I finished 2022 down only 6% there. In our retirement accounts we lost 15-16% for the year. I have less control over investing that money. At least we still beat the market there.

I track our investments closely because they're key to us being able to retire soon. What's "soon"? Several years ago I said to myself and my wife: Five Good Years. All we'd need is five good years, then we'd have enough to retire.

I knew when I made the mantra Five Good Years that it wouldn't be just 5 years on the calendar. Markets go down some years. I figured 5 good years would actually take about 7 years, allowing for one down market cycle in the period. How's that worked out? Well, across the past 7 years we've only had three good years, financially. We still need two more good years.

UPDATE: I forgot to explain why I'm overall satisfied with our financial situation at the end of 2022. It's not just, "Ooh, we lost less than the market." Silver-lining-to-a-dark-cloud is never satisfying. What's positive about our finances in 2022 is that we continued to save money, bigly. We set another new record for money saved in 2022. Basically we're living on one salary and saving the other. ...Actually we're living on less than one salary and saving the rest. Aggressive savings has been part of my Five Good Years calculation since the beginning. I'm excited we're outperforming even aggressive goals.

The Year Ahead: More Holding Pattern?

I don't have strong expectations for 2023. I mean, I'd love to think that it's going to be a banner year, one of those last remaining Five Good Years, etc. I'd love to think that, but there's no indication it'll happen. Financially speaking, most people are expecting a recession in 2023. Of course, most people were expecting that for a lot of 2022, as well, which is a large part of why the market was down 19%. Expectation of a recession creates a recession. Maybe 2023 will be another year of a holding pattern... or maybe we'll break out the other side of the holding pattern during the year and finish strong. I hope for the latter but prepare for the former.