Hurricane Ian Might Roll Through Orlando
Sep. 27th, 2022 08:29 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
canyonwalkerSo many relatives and friends today have said, "I'm glad you left Florida." Recall I was in Orlando for a work-related conference, and getting out was something of an ordeal the past two days. Well, now under the category of "Glad I got out when I did" is tonight's news that Hurricane Ian has shifted course to the east. It may roll straight over Orlando!
This graphic courtesy of Fox 35 News in Orlando shows an estimate of the storm's path as of Tuesday 8pm EDT. The eye of the hurricane— though it will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm once it's that far inland— could pass over Orlando Thursday afternoon.
It's worth noting that the way we talk about a hurricane's strength is no longer a great indicator of the damage it can do. The Category 1-5 stuff is based on wind speed. That made sense maybe 50-75 years ago when the hurricane prone parts of the US were sparsely developed and the biggest hazard was inexpensive housing and commercial buildings near the coast being damaged by high winds. Nowadays flooding is a far bigger hazard. Dense urban development has greatly diminished natural drainage. When multiple inches of rain fall in a tropical storm it no longer has anywhere else to go. The biggest damage tolls from hurricanes in the US in the past 10 years have been from slow moving storms that dump lots of rain.
It's rain that's going to be the hazard for Orlando; rain that causes flooding because there's nowhere for the water to go. Flooding will destroy homes, cause power outages and cut transportation links. People could be without power for days, and getting the lights back on and getting help to people in emergencies will be slow going where roads are flooded.
Even this morning my colleagues who chose to remain in Orlando were seeing the situation getting difficult. Stores were already sold out of bottled water, flashlights, and spare batteries. Basic food ingredients were selling out, too. I hope the hotel has several days of food in its kitchens... and enough power to keep the refrigerators and stoves operating.
This graphic courtesy of Fox 35 News in Orlando shows an estimate of the storm's path as of Tuesday 8pm EDT. The eye of the hurricane— though it will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm once it's that far inland— could pass over Orlando Thursday afternoon.
It's worth noting that the way we talk about a hurricane's strength is no longer a great indicator of the damage it can do. The Category 1-5 stuff is based on wind speed. That made sense maybe 50-75 years ago when the hurricane prone parts of the US were sparsely developed and the biggest hazard was inexpensive housing and commercial buildings near the coast being damaged by high winds. Nowadays flooding is a far bigger hazard. Dense urban development has greatly diminished natural drainage. When multiple inches of rain fall in a tropical storm it no longer has anywhere else to go. The biggest damage tolls from hurricanes in the US in the past 10 years have been from slow moving storms that dump lots of rain.
It's rain that's going to be the hazard for Orlando; rain that causes flooding because there's nowhere for the water to go. Flooding will destroy homes, cause power outages and cut transportation links. People could be without power for days, and getting the lights back on and getting help to people in emergencies will be slow going where roads are flooded.
Even this morning my colleagues who chose to remain in Orlando were seeing the situation getting difficult. Stores were already sold out of bottled water, flashlights, and spare batteries. Basic food ingredients were selling out, too. I hope the hotel has several days of food in its kitchens... and enough power to keep the refrigerators and stoves operating.
