![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
"Stay and Die" in Tampa Bay?
Oct. 9th, 2024 10:11 pmHurricane Milton has made landfall along the Gulf Coast of Central Florida, bringing strong winds and rain expected to cause potentially record-setting damage. Many people fled the area ahead of the storm... but far from everyone. Was that wise? If you listen to some of the dire warnings offered earlier this week you might think it's ridiculous to stay.
Here's the Tampa Bay mayor Jane Castor offering a warning two nights ago that quickly went viral:
"I can say without any dramatization, if you choose to stay in one of the evacuation areas, you're going to die."
So there you have it. You stay = you die!!
Except while that's what some people heard, it's not what the mayor said. Or meant.
"Evacuation area" is not the whole city of Tampa Bay, pop. 400,000. And it's not the whole metro area, pop. 3,000,000. Evacuation zones are actually very carefully delineated by local governments in Florida. Here's a map I found for Hillsborough County, FL, which includes Tampa and many of the suburbs:
The evacuation order current covers hurricane evacuation zones A and B, only. Those are the red and orange areas on the map. Zones C, D, and E are not under evacuation order. And as you can see from the map, significant parts of the region are not even zoned— meaning they're not at enough risk of hurricane damage even to consider for mandatory evacuation.
BTW, I made this chart from the page Find Evacuation Information | Hillsborough County, FL. A similar page for Pinellas County, FL is Know Your Zone.
So yes, a lot of people in and around Tampa are choosing to "ride it out", to "shelter in place". If they're in zone A or B, they're legitimately risking their lives. But if they're anywhere else— zones C-D-E or un-zoned areas— their choice is reasonable.
Besides, evacuating is hard.
Imagine you scramble to load up your car with everything that's important. Family, clothes, medicines, electronics, spare batteries, pets. You load up the car and hit the road and... it's a parking lot. So many people are trying to leave that there's a traffic jam. You're parked on the highway, moving maybe 10 miles in an hour.
And there's no gas. You're burning fuel idling on the highway not going anywhere, and the gas stations are already sold out. Or closed. Or both. You were frankly safer in your house than sitting in a car parked on a highway when the storm comes.
There's also no food. The stores are all sold out and closed. How much food did you pack in your car along with everything else? Almost certainly you had more food in your pantry at home. Water, too.
How far will you have to drive to find a place to stay? In a hotel? Ha! The hotels are all sold out for 200 miles. You might be driving for 20 hours just to make it that far, anyway.
And when you do find a hotel with vacancy, if you haven't run out of gas by then, how much is it going to cost? Not just for 1 night but for however many nights you need until you think it's safe— or even possible— to go back home? You could be stuck hundreds of miles from home for a week or more. You could easily be spending thousands.
You've got to weigh the cost of all that against the risk of staying. Yeah, you might lose power, for a few hours or a few days. You might have to boil water. Your home may take some damage, and roads around you may flood limiting transportation.
So if you're in an area where evacuation isn't mandatory, it's a legit decision whether leaving home is a good idea. So don't automatically scoff at the people choosing to ride this one out.
Here's the Tampa Bay mayor Jane Castor offering a warning two nights ago that quickly went viral:
"I can say without any dramatization, if you choose to stay in one of the evacuation areas, you're going to die."
So there you have it. You stay = you die!!
Except while that's what some people heard, it's not what the mayor said. Or meant.
"Evacuation area" is not the whole city of Tampa Bay, pop. 400,000. And it's not the whole metro area, pop. 3,000,000. Evacuation zones are actually very carefully delineated by local governments in Florida. Here's a map I found for Hillsborough County, FL, which includes Tampa and many of the suburbs:
The evacuation order current covers hurricane evacuation zones A and B, only. Those are the red and orange areas on the map. Zones C, D, and E are not under evacuation order. And as you can see from the map, significant parts of the region are not even zoned— meaning they're not at enough risk of hurricane damage even to consider for mandatory evacuation.
BTW, I made this chart from the page Find Evacuation Information | Hillsborough County, FL. A similar page for Pinellas County, FL is Know Your Zone.
So yes, a lot of people in and around Tampa are choosing to "ride it out", to "shelter in place". If they're in zone A or B, they're legitimately risking their lives. But if they're anywhere else— zones C-D-E or un-zoned areas— their choice is reasonable.
Besides, evacuating is hard.
Imagine you scramble to load up your car with everything that's important. Family, clothes, medicines, electronics, spare batteries, pets. You load up the car and hit the road and... it's a parking lot. So many people are trying to leave that there's a traffic jam. You're parked on the highway, moving maybe 10 miles in an hour.
And there's no gas. You're burning fuel idling on the highway not going anywhere, and the gas stations are already sold out. Or closed. Or both. You were frankly safer in your house than sitting in a car parked on a highway when the storm comes.
There's also no food. The stores are all sold out and closed. How much food did you pack in your car along with everything else? Almost certainly you had more food in your pantry at home. Water, too.
How far will you have to drive to find a place to stay? In a hotel? Ha! The hotels are all sold out for 200 miles. You might be driving for 20 hours just to make it that far, anyway.
And when you do find a hotel with vacancy, if you haven't run out of gas by then, how much is it going to cost? Not just for 1 night but for however many nights you need until you think it's safe— or even possible— to go back home? You could be stuck hundreds of miles from home for a week or more. You could easily be spending thousands.
You've got to weigh the cost of all that against the risk of staying. Yeah, you might lose power, for a few hours or a few days. You might have to boil water. Your home may take some damage, and roads around you may flood limiting transportation.
So if you're in an area where evacuation isn't mandatory, it's a legit decision whether leaving home is a good idea. So don't automatically scoff at the people choosing to ride this one out.
