One Year of Russia's Ukraine Invasion
Feb. 24th, 2023 05:21 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
canyonwalkerToday marks the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The war, still ongoing, began on 24 Feb 2022 when Russia rolled tanks and soldiers across the border with the intent to crush Ukraine's government and annex the country's land.
Hindsight, as they say, is 20/20. It's evident now that Russia made two enormous miscalculations in invading Ukraine.
— First, Russia massively underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people. Far from welcoming the Russians— though the argument that the Ukrainians would do so was part of Russian propaganda— Ukrainians fought back, tenaciously. The Russian military, which prepared and moved as if it anticipated being able to sack the capital, Kyiv, within days, instead got bogged down in the country's east. Supplies ran out and supply lines fell apart. Even as Russia switched from a classic military campaign to essentially a terrorist campaign deliberately targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, Ukrainians have not been cowed.
— Second, Russia massively underestimated the will of the international community to push back against them. The US led EU member countries and a few other western-style democracies in enacting punishing sanctions against Russia. That happened, too, after Russia's annexation of Crimea (a part of Ukraine) in 2014... but what's different this time is that the sanctions have stuck. In 2014 EU members abandoned sanctions after a few months and resumed trade with Russia. Not only are the sanctions sticking this time but countries are also pouring military aid into Ukraine to help it defend its sovereignty in the face of this naked, unprovoked aggression.
Hindsight, as they say, is 20/20. It's evident now that Russia made two enormous miscalculations in invading Ukraine.
— First, Russia massively underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people. Far from welcoming the Russians— though the argument that the Ukrainians would do so was part of Russian propaganda— Ukrainians fought back, tenaciously. The Russian military, which prepared and moved as if it anticipated being able to sack the capital, Kyiv, within days, instead got bogged down in the country's east. Supplies ran out and supply lines fell apart. Even as Russia switched from a classic military campaign to essentially a terrorist campaign deliberately targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, Ukrainians have not been cowed.
— Second, Russia massively underestimated the will of the international community to push back against them. The US led EU member countries and a few other western-style democracies in enacting punishing sanctions against Russia. That happened, too, after Russia's annexation of Crimea (a part of Ukraine) in 2014... but what's different this time is that the sanctions have stuck. In 2014 EU members abandoned sanctions after a few months and resumed trade with Russia. Not only are the sanctions sticking this time but countries are also pouring military aid into Ukraine to help it defend its sovereignty in the face of this naked, unprovoked aggression.
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Date: 2023-02-25 02:58 am (UTC)