Israel's No-Win War
Oct. 23rd, 2023 06:01 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
canyonwalkerIsrael has begun its counterattack against Hamas forces in the Gaza Strip. It follows Hamas's shocking raids on Oct 7 which killed over 1,000 people (figure updated with latest estimates), most of whom were civilians deliberately targeted at a music festival and in their own homes. Unfortunately for Israel, this war is a no-win proposition.
First, not striking back at Hamas is not an option. The Oct. 7 attack was big enough, brazen enough, and barbaric enough that it cannot go unanswered. Moreover, the scope of attack revealed that Hamas has built considerable terrorist war-fighting capability in the Gaza Strip. They have several thousand trained fighters, ample munitions, sophisticated leadership and operational expertise, and training grounds. Israel cannot simply leave this hostile military within its borders untouched.
Clearly Israel must act, militarily. The problem, then, is what degree of success can it achieve by striking back. And that's where it seems there's no reasonable definition of a "win" they can achieve. Consider:
First, not striking back at Hamas is not an option. The Oct. 7 attack was big enough, brazen enough, and barbaric enough that it cannot go unanswered. Moreover, the scope of attack revealed that Hamas has built considerable terrorist war-fighting capability in the Gaza Strip. They have several thousand trained fighters, ample munitions, sophisticated leadership and operational expertise, and training grounds. Israel cannot simply leave this hostile military within its borders untouched.
Clearly Israel must act, militarily. The problem, then, is what degree of success can it achieve by striking back. And that's where it seems there's no reasonable definition of a "win" they can achieve. Consider:
- Those thousands of terrorist fighters are not going wear uniforms or guard terrorist bases. They will melt in with the general population. (That's a core fact of terrorism and asymmetric warfare.) Likely many of them were among the first refugees to flee south when Israel warned that it would invade the northern part of the Gaza Strip.
- The invasion is hugely damaging to civilians and civilian infrastructure. Israel cut off power and supplies to the Gaza Strip two weeks ago. That's part of isolating and disempowering the terrorists... but it's also created a humanitarian crisis with 1,000,000+ civilian victims.
- In addition to the general problem of civilian harm when fighting a war in a densely occupied area, Israel must deal with the fact Hamas hides its war materiel in civilian infrastructure. Past strikes have reveals that guns are stored in hospitals, bombs are kept in schools, and officers meet to make war plans in occupied residential buildings. Thus neutralizing Hamas's war-making capability will mean these places are targets. That not only makes the humanitarian impact worse but will play terribly in the news.
