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canyonwalkerI wrote the other day about the Gaza ceasefire deal negotiated between Israel and Hamas. I heard about it on Wednesday around lunchtime in California when President Biden announced it in a press conference. The deal was brokered by negotiators from the US, Egypt, and Qatar, and had been in the works for 8 months. By the time I posted that blog about it 24 hours later there were already trouble signs that the deal might fall apart before it even took effect. Now, despite wobbling it looks like it will begin Sunday morning at 0630 local time in Israel.
What have been the wobbles? Well, first, the deal had to be approved by Israel's cabinet. They set a date of Friday, then pushed it to Saturday, raising worries they might kill it with delays. A vote on Saturday would've pushed implementation of the terms out past Sunday. The cabinet moved the vote back up to Friday.
Not all of Israel's cabinet support the ceasefire. The far right components of prime minister Netanyahu's ruling coalition are opposed. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said he and members of his party would resign if the ceasefire passed, weakening Netanyahu's coalition possibly to the point of losing majority. That's why I noted yesterday that Netanyahu strengthening his majority recently was crucial to him finally agreeing to ceasefire terms that have been on the table for 8 months. Ben Gvir softened his stance, though, and withdrew his threat to resign even though he and fellow party member Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich voted against the agreement. Ministers of some other far-right parties are opposed, too, though they are only observers, not full voting members, of the Security Cabinet.
The ceasefire agreement also faces threats from, well, not-ceasing fire. Israel has claimed Palestinian fighters are still launching attacks, justifying it launching attacks in return with tanks and airstrikes. And Houthi rebels in Yemen continue to fire missiles at Israel. Still, Israeli military units seem to be forming up to begin withdrawing on Monday morning, and authorities are working on details of exactly which imprisoned Palestinians will be released in exchange for freed hostages.
At this point we're only a few hours from 0630 Sunday morning in Gaza. Despite the wobbliness the ceasefire seems to remain on track. Of course, even once it begins it remains at risk. Not only is Israel likely to continue responding militarily to any armed provocation but the details of phases 2 and 3 of the plan are not yet hammered out. The agreement acknowledges a return to war if the two sides cannot come to terms.
What have been the wobbles? Well, first, the deal had to be approved by Israel's cabinet. They set a date of Friday, then pushed it to Saturday, raising worries they might kill it with delays. A vote on Saturday would've pushed implementation of the terms out past Sunday. The cabinet moved the vote back up to Friday.
Not all of Israel's cabinet support the ceasefire. The far right components of prime minister Netanyahu's ruling coalition are opposed. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said he and members of his party would resign if the ceasefire passed, weakening Netanyahu's coalition possibly to the point of losing majority. That's why I noted yesterday that Netanyahu strengthening his majority recently was crucial to him finally agreeing to ceasefire terms that have been on the table for 8 months. Ben Gvir softened his stance, though, and withdrew his threat to resign even though he and fellow party member Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich voted against the agreement. Ministers of some other far-right parties are opposed, too, though they are only observers, not full voting members, of the Security Cabinet.
The ceasefire agreement also faces threats from, well, not-ceasing fire. Israel has claimed Palestinian fighters are still launching attacks, justifying it launching attacks in return with tanks and airstrikes. And Houthi rebels in Yemen continue to fire missiles at Israel. Still, Israeli military units seem to be forming up to begin withdrawing on Monday morning, and authorities are working on details of exactly which imprisoned Palestinians will be released in exchange for freed hostages.
At this point we're only a few hours from 0630 Sunday morning in Gaza. Despite the wobbliness the ceasefire seems to remain on track. Of course, even once it begins it remains at risk. Not only is Israel likely to continue responding militarily to any armed provocation but the details of phases 2 and 3 of the plan are not yet hammered out. The agreement acknowledges a return to war if the two sides cannot come to terms.
