canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
I've seen a lot of articles in the news the past few months about people struggling with $1,000+ monthly payments for their car loans. For a few years that's been us, too! ...Well, the $1,000 part, but not the struggling part. When we bought our used BMW convertible in July 2021 we chose to finance it with a loan from the manufacturer. The monthly bill was technically only $945 and change but we rounded up the payments to $1,000. Now, 33 months later, we're done.

There's an old saying, Don't write checks you can't cash. In this context that's not just a figure of speech but a literal statement. We financed the car with a high monthly payment because we could afford it. We had the money to buy the car outright with cash, so making the loan payments was never an issue.

That's the biggest problem with people and their $1,000 car payments (IMO). They've bought more than they can afford. Like, they've bought a $60,000 pickup truck without the budget to afford it. What would have fit their budget was a $35k sedan or a used pickup. Now their monthly payments of over $1,000 are a monthly hardship for the next 5 years. They've written a proverbial check they struggle to cash.

The other thing that gives people trouble with loans is the interest rate. You can end up paying a lot more than the original cost of an item with all the interest charges. When rates were low several years ago, at least for people with strong credit, interest wasn't such a big issue. Indeed, part of our decision to borrow instead of buying the car outright was that we got a great rate. At 0.9% APR it was almost like free money. In fact, it was like being paid to borrow because I could invest the principal in low-risk securities and earn a better return than 0.9%. In addition, rounding up our payments to an even $1,000/month let us retire our 36 month loan 3 months early.

What's next? Well, we're still happy with the car, and it has just over 50k miles on it, so we're in no rush to replace it. If anything it's our other car, our 12½ year old SUV nearing 125,000 miles, that we'll replace first. But for now we'll enjoy being free of car payments for a while.

canyonwalker: Uh-oh, physics (Wile E. Coyote)
Several years ago I wrote I Hate My Mortgage Company. Their automated processes worked well, but whenever an exception occurred that required human assistance, their people were terrible to work with. Well, now they've sold off my loan... to a mortgage company that's apparently even worse.

Get a load of this opening paragraph in the first letter they sent me. The bolding and capitalization are theirs.

"[Company Name] is the new servicer of your loan and is a debt collector. We are trying to collect a debt that is owed to FANNIE MAE. We will use any information you give us to help collect the debt."

Great way to use unnecessarily confrontational language in introducing yourselves to a new customer, treating me like a delinquent instead of a person who's paid every debt on time, ever!

And this company isn't even a bank. At least my previous mortgagor was a bank, with branches in several states (though none near me). That meant at least they had people who knew banking. This business looks like some boiler-room shop of debt collectors operating in a state notorious for with minimal oversight on the collections industry.

Yelp reviewers complain of it being hard to get a customer service agent on the phone, agents refusing to help, and bogus fees and charges that could not be removed. Likely they're a bottom feeder company trying to break in to the mortgage servicing business by operating on thinner margins than anyone else... thinner margins they achieve apparently by understaffing and not hiring people with appropriate skill or experience.

Fingers crossed nothing goes wrong that requires assistance from these clowns.
canyonwalker: WTF? (wtf?)
The bank where I've held a checking account for twenty-some-odd years sent me this solicitation today to open a new checking account with them:

A free LAUNDRY BASKET? Sign me up! (Jul 2023)

I've written before about how my banks show little clue they understand my financial situation even though they're required to by law. Here I wonder if my bank even knows how old I am, let alone that I have enough assets I'm unlikely to be swayed by, Ooh! a free laundry basket.

...Though possibly they do know my age and are thinking maybe I have a child in college who'd benefit from a checking account. That possibility makes this far from the worst mismatch they've made. It's not like they're offering me a loan at "only!" 7.99% "to consolidate [my] credit card debt!!!" when a soft pull of my credit report would show I haven't actually carried a balance on a credit card in nearly 20 years. ...And that last time was at 0% APR. 🙄

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
After the rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank nine days ago everyone was looking for whom or what to pin the blame on. GOP culture warriors quickly aligned on a simple, stupid, common explanation: The bank was too "woke".

Politicians such as Florida Gov. and apparent presidential candidate Ron DeSantis and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley have gone on the talk show circuit blaming the bank's diversity efforts for its failure, as have countless right-wing pundits. And you thought I was joking when I quipped right after the failure that these sorts would snivel, "Isn't that just some community bank for liberal techies who care more about whether the lollipops in the lobby are cruelty free and LGBTQIA+ positive than what the interest rate is?"

One of the first examples of the too "woke" blame game came from WSJ columnist Andy Kessler a week ago. Link: Full column. He wrote:

“In its proxy statement, SVB notes that besides 91% of their board being independent and 45% women, they also have ‘1 Black,’ ‘1 LGBTQ+’ and ‘2 Veterans.’ I’m not saying 12 white men would have avoided this mess, but the company may have been distracted by diversity demands.”
Wow. There are so many things wrong in just two sentences. I'll limit my fault finding to Five Things for brevity:

1) If ever there were a time the disclaimer, "I'm not saying..." meant literally "I am saying..." this would be it. He is literally saying that diversity is the problem.

2) Unpacking his syllogism, is he saying that the BOD members who were ‘1 Black,’ ‘1 LGBTQ+’ and ‘2 Veterans’ were unable to spot a not-too-hard-to-understand risk that "12 white men" would have spotted? And really, dumping on veterans as less smart than "white men"?

3) ...Or, continuing to unpack the syllogism, is he saying that the bank expended so much effort on its diversity program that it neglected to manage its financial risk?

4) Pretty much all banks strive for diversity. They all tout diversity programs on their websites. Go check any of the big ones: Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Capital One, US Bancorp, etc. None of them are failing.

5) Meanwhile, study after study has shown that diversity promotes business success rather than hinders it. A 2020 report by consultancy McKinsey found that "[T]he relationship between diversity on executive teams and the likelihood of financial outperformance has strengthened over time."


canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
An interesting thing about the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank is that it's not due to bad investments. It's actually mostly psychological.

SVB didn't invest in fundamentally unsound investments. These weren't complex and dishonestly mis-rated mortgage backed securities, like what screwed up banks in the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. These were treasury bonds, an investment that's considered safe and conservative. There's no "What's this really worth?" mystery as bonds are priced in transparent, highly liquid markets throughout the day. When the agency behind them makes a change it holds a press conference.

SVB also didn't lose a ton of money on these investments. The loss was, like, 2% of SVB's total assets.

People argue whether SVB's mistake was having that 2% loss. Yes, they could have done better. But really their big mistake was communicating the loss. They were too loud about it!

You see, a run on the bank happens when there's a loss of confidence. A few depositors withdraw their money and announce they did it because they think the bank's in danger. This spooks other depositors, who withdraw their money, too. Soon the bank has to sell of assets to pay out these withdrawals— because, remember, banks don't just have everyone's money sitting in cash in a vault. That triggers further fears, triggering further withdrawals. It becomes a vicious downward cycle.

A fear cycle is exactly what killed SVB. They helped trigger it by being too transparent about suffering that 2% loss. The CEO basically went on social media about it. That alerted a few big-money depositors, who (a) withdrew their money and (b) also posted on social media about it.

The fact the run on the bank spread through social media is a huge part of how it happened in the space of a day. Years ago, like back in the Great Depression, a run on the bank happened when people lined up at brick-and-mortar bank offices to demand cash from tellers. In 2023 a run on the bank happens when people use an app to transfer $25,000,000 and then tweet it.


canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
"How Much Should You Worry About Bank Failure?" reads a typical news headline I've seen over a dozen slight variations of in the past 24 hours. These are part of a predictable news cycle after the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank late last week. As usual for articles about finance in the general media, writers get it wrong. Curiously in this case they manage to both over- and under-report what the risk to the average person is.

Generally speaking, your savings are safe. The FDIC insures bank accounts for up to $250,000. This organization was created in 1933 after the widespread bank failures of the Great Depression wiped out millions of ordinary Americans' life savings. There's emphasis on ordinary. In 1933 the covered amount was only $2,500. It has been increased over time. The last increase was in late 2008, during the Global Financial Crisis, when it was raised from $100k to $250k.

"What if I've got more than $250k?" you might wonder. Well, first, congratulations! Most people don't have that much. Second, it depends on what form your money is in and where you keep it. This coverage does not protect investments; it protects cash accounts, like your checking account and savings account. The cool thing is the limit is per account, so if you have more than $250k you can split it across multiple accounts, each with a balance below that threshold, and protect it all.

For example, in my family we have 7 FDIC insured accounts. We could protect up to $1.75 million in them. We have way less cash than that, though. We don't even have $250k between all of them. We have those different accounts because they're titled differently (some in my name, some in my spouse's, some joint) and because they offer different benefits (unlimited check writing vs. high interest). But if we had $1.75 million to protect, we could do it with those seven accounts.

There's a practical limit to how far you can divide a huge amount of wealth to protect it in $250k envelopes. If you have $25 million cash, you'd need 100 accounts to protect it all. That's not feasible. But that's also the point. FDIC insurance is to protect ordinary Americans, not the One Percent.

Now, while having $25 million in checking is an enormous amount for an individual it is not that much for a business. And that's where this category of news articles understates the risk to ordinary Americans. While your savings are safe, your employer's are not.

That was especially the case with Silicon Valley Bank, which served primarily corporate accounts. Dozens, even hundreds, of business could have lost most of their money— money they use for things like payroll.

Yes, those businesses were also protected up to $250k per account, but $250k doesn't go as far in business as in kitchen-table economics. For example, my company— which has/had its payroll accounts at SVB— has about 350 US employees. At next payroll, that $250k from the FDIC means there's only $714 to pay each employee... and then the company is broke.

That's why the federal government stepped up and covered the full amount of accounts at SVB. Because if suddenly lots of people are losing their jobs because their companies suddenly lose 99% of their assets, it's an economic catastrophe.


canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
After Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and was seized by regulators on Friday, the government has taken steps to prevent further runs on the bank. First, on Sunday the FDIC announced that it would make all depositors whole. It extended its typical insurance limit of $250,000 per account to cover the full amount on deposit. This is not a "bank bailout"; the bank is still failed. Investors lose all their money, and executives will have to find jobs at others banks to ruin. The protection for is the people who had accounts there— which actually is a lot of companies that have their accounts there for things like payroll. I know, because I've worked at multiple companies with checking accounts there— including my present employer. 😱

The second major step the government took was this morning. To prevent runs on the bank at other banks as investors and depositors react in fear, the US Treasury has promised to redeem their underwater Treasury Bills at face value. This is arguably also not a "bank bailout" as the payments are actually loans, not full redemptions. I'm still trying to find details on it— which is hard even in financial media at the moment because of the amount of misinformation and outright disinformation (purposeful lies) that pollute the channels.

The bond loans are critical because it's US Treasury bonds that sunk Silicon Valley Bank. That's right, it wasn't something crazy and risky like cryptocurrency or "liar loans" that wrecked them, it was good old, safe, sensible Treasuries. What happened was all the bonds they bought a few years ago, when rates were really low, are now worth much less than their face value since rates are really high. For buy-and-hold investors that's not a problem; if you hold bonds to maturity, you're paid the full face price. But banks and other investors who need to sell bonds early to pay for something else— like larger-than-expected withdrawals from bank accounts— have to take the current market price. SVB got burned on that, tried to raise capital with a new stock offering, and triggered a vicious downward cycle, a run on the bank.

Updatemy crosspost of this journal entry to LiveJournal hit the daily Top 15 list there in less than an hour!


canyonwalker: Uh-oh, physics (Wile E. Coyote)
Silicon Valley Bank has collapsed. "So what?" you might think, "Isn't that just some community bank for liberal techies who care more about whether the lollipops in the lobby are cruelty free and LGBTQIA+ positive than what the interest rate is?"

First, SVB is not a community bank but a commercial bank. That means instead of offering personal checking accounts and home mortgage loans and lollipops, they do banking and loans for businesses. They've focused for their entire 40 year history on helping small Silicon Valley businesses grow big. If you're at a tech startup in Silicon Valley— or in Boston, where they have branches, too— SVB is likely one of your stakeholders.

Second, SVB is actually a fairly big bank even if few people outside the Silicon Valley tech industry have heard of it. At the end of 2022 it had over $200 billion in total assets. It was one of the 20 largest commercial banks in the US. And its failure represents the largest bank failure since 2008. ...Yes, that 2008; the year when multiple big banks failed in the sub-prime lending crisis.

SVB suffered a rapid demise that belies the old saying, "A big ship sinks slowly." SVB collapsed in under 48 hours.

A Classic Run On The Bank

What happened at SVB is a form of the classic run-on-the-bank story.

SVB announced Wednesday afternoon, after market close, that it had had to sell some of its bond holdings at a loss to pay customer withdrawals. To cover that loss the bank would issue over $1B of new stock.

Investors on Thursday were spooked by this news and sold their shares. The bank's stock, ticker symbol SIVB, closed the day down more than 85%.

Depositors were spooked by the sudden risk of failure, too. Many company CFOs moved to withdraw deposits.

Friday morning the bank's stock traded down even further in the market's opening minutes before regulators intervened to shut the bank. It's now in receivership (a form of bankruptcy control) under the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

What's My Risk?

I mentioned above that SVB is a commercial bank, not a community bank. I've never had a loan or an account there. Though if I did have an account, my money would be insured up to $250,000 per account by the FDIC. (Yay, government.)

I have worked for companies that bank at SVB. A small company I worked at for 7 years, for example, had most of its money there. Our paychecks, for example, were drawn on that bank. And the company's deposits there were likely, at times, way, way more than $250,000.

I learned in a Slack message this morning from my CEO that my present employer has accounts at SVB. ...Actually he didn't say accounts but "a relationship". It's not specified what that relationship is. The CEO assured us that there won't be problems with payroll. I am feeling alarmed and more than a bit skeptical until more detail is shared.

Update: additional insights in comments below and in a followup article I wrote Mar 13, Treasury Steps in to Prevent Further Bank Runs.


canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
Continuing with my theme of how couple should manage their money together, my topic today is how many bank accounts a pair of people in a relationship should have. After "How should we share expenses?", which i wrote about yesterday, it's the next most common question I see in financial advice columns and blogs. And the two questions are related. How you set up your bank accounts is closely tied to how you share money and split expenses.

When Hawk and started living together years ago the modern advice was to have 3 bank accounts: one for each person in their name alone, and one joint account from which shared bills can paid. The idea was this preserved each partner's independence, via money and fiscal control that was theirs alone, while also making it simple to share common expenses. That was different from the more traditional arrangement, where couples once married would have a single household bank account. Often the woman in the relationship would have little control over the money.

As an aside, I can only shake my head at how the 3-accounts strategy that was the new advice 25-30 years ago still seems to be the new advice today. So many questions or stories on this topic in financial advice blogs are from women who are trying to avoid, or recover from, loss of financial control.

Anyway, back to what worked for us.

3 Accounts, in Spirit if not in Practice

When we moved in together we embraced 3 accounts idea... in spirit. We each had our own accounts but no shared account. One of the other of us would pay each bill for shared expenses (rent, utilities, food) then about once a month we'd figure out the difference and one person would write the other a check to even it out.

Why no shared account? Frankly because bank accounts are not free. Even the credit union I belonged to had a monthly account fee that was only waived if you had either direct deposit of your paychecks or a certain minimum account balance— a minimum that was high for people just getting started out. Having a third account would've meant paying fees. Evening it up ourselves once a month, even in the old days of adding stuff up on calculators and then writing a check, was easier than paying a fee. BTW if we were starting out today we'd do the same thing— though with a tool like Venmo or Zelle to even out the payments.

If 3 is Good, 6 is Better!

As we built up our finances we did open a third account... once we had enough money to meet the minimums across multiple accounts. And then we opened a fourth account, and a fifth, and more!

We opened the second trio of accounts specifically as savings accounts, separate from our checking accounts. In terms of discipline, checking accounts are for regular expenses. We auto-deposit our paychecks and pay bills there. Savings accounts we only touch for bills if they're major, planned purchases. More importantly, in terms of financial structure, the savings accounts are high yield. We hold them at banks that pay great interest rates. Most banks and even most credit unions pay essentially 0% interest on checking account balances. The best high-yield accounts are paying close to 3% today.

Advice You Can Bank On

My advice to people starting out (or starting over) today is three simple recommendations:

  1. If you're in a long term relationship, use the 3-accounts approach— in spirit (like we did for several years) if not in practice.

  2. If you're living mostly paycheck-to-paycheck, focus on finding a good checking account with as low fees as possible.

  3. Once you're able to start saving, open a high-yield savings account and start transferring there whatever money you don't need for regular expenses. (Note this isn't investing. Investing is the next step, and it's a major one.)

canyonwalker: Y U No Listen? (Y U No Listen?)
"Know Your Customer". That's the name of a set of regulations in financial services industries around the world. In the US these requirements were mandated by the USA Patriot Act of 2001 to thwart money laundering used for, among other things, funding foreign terrorist organizations. Know Your Customer means understanding a client's financial situation— job, income, assets, financial habits— to spot unusual transactions. In that sense a few of my banks/brokers I've been with for years evidently don't know me.

"You're qualified to borrow up to $5,000!" screamed the headline in an email from a major bank I've had an account with for 10 years. "Interest rate only 5.98% APY," it added in smaller print.

WTF? If they looked at my financial information they'd see that offer is a joke. One, I don't need to borrow $5k. Two, 6% is a laughably bad rate. I have loans dwarfing that in size at rates from less than half to less than one-sixth that rate. I'm supposed to pay 6x t for a joke-sized loan when I could just write a check for 10x that amount from cash on hand?

It's not just that one bank. Another financial institution I've had an account with for 25 years keeps offering me joke-sized little loans with joke-sized high interest rates, too.

Update: a few days later the same bank increased the offer: $30,000... with a 10.99% interest rate!


canyonwalker: Uh-oh, physics (Wile E. Coyote)
I've written before that I rarely visit ATMs anymore. What used to be a twice-a-week ritual to withdraw cash has slowed to once, maybe twice, a year as I've moved to largely cashless behavior. I proclaimed "RIP ATM" in 2014. After spending a bunch of cash last week at a store that doesn't accept credit cards I went to the ATM to refill my wallet. Call it my once a year ATM trip. But when I went there my ATM was gone!

The credit union I've done my retail banking with for the past 25 years closed its branch near my home during the pandemic. I saw that when I visited the branch 5-6 months ago to deposit a small dragon's hoard of coins. I had to go to the next branch 5 miles away. But now the nearby branch has been closed permanently. And the ATM has been removed!

Time for a New Bank?

Losing the branch near home got me questioning whether it's time to switch banks. I've been considering a move for several years. The credit union I'm with doesn't particularly excel at the things credit unions are supposed to do well— better rates and fees than traditional banks offer. It's only on par with traditional banks in that regard. And it's a small institution so it's, like, 10+ years behind on digital tools.

I've tolerated these uncompetitive aspects of the CU by combining my basic checking account there with accounts at other banks. I basically just use the CU as a direct-deposit target for my paychecks and for the convenience of a branch office the once a year I need it. I keep most of my cash in an online bank that pays me a high interest rate and has great digital tools. Oh, the CU refunds me the fees charged when I use other banks' ATMs. That's very convenient when traveling. But the thing is, the big banks offer that feature, too, when you've got enough money with them across all your accounts. Plus, the big banks— Chase, Citibank, etc.— have plenty of branches and ATMs in their own networks.

The Power of Small

While the big banks have a certain power of size with plenty of locations, the CU I've banked with for 25 years has a power in its smallness. Because they're small they still focus on the retail banking customer. Those one or two times a year I've needed to go inside a branch they've always taken care of me well. The tellers are polite, capable, and empowered. The handful of times I've needed something beyond what a front-line employee can do, a specialist or manager has always taken over quickly. Even when I call their toll-free number I get to a real employee quickly— within business hours.

Compare that to the online reviews I checked for big bank branches in the area. I saw lots of complaints of indifferent tellers, having to make appointments well in advance for special service only to have the specialist not show up, and hostile branch managers who blame everything on the customer. Seeing that, I've decided to stick with Small.

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canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
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