canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
I've written before about how I hate Las Vegas. Pretty much every time I've been to Vegas for work in the past several years, I've hated it. Why? Here are Five Things:

  • The gambling sucks. Gambling was once the primary draw to Las Vegas. The house always had the edge, of course, but years ago they could be gentle about it. Now they've worsened the odds for players by 3x-10x. It amazes me that people still sit down for games where the house wins, on average, 2%, 5%, or even 7% of your money every turn.

  • Food is stupid expensive. Years ago Vegas casinos offered good food at fantastic prices. It was a loss-leader to get you in to gamble. Now not only is the gambling itself more of a con than ever before, but the food has flipped around to being a profit center. A meal in a food court costs $30. Dinner in a nice restaurants starts at $100pp— and that's if all you order is an entree and a glass of water, after tax and tip. Throw in a few drinks because you're celebrating, and an appetizer and/or dessert, and you're looking easily at $200pp.

  • Smoking. Even though the number of smokers as a percentage of casino patrons is smaller today than years ago, it's still sickening how much latent smoke is in the air. It's like it's all built up over the past 30 years. I have to shower before going to bed so as not to wake up sick in the morning.

  • It takes forever to go anywhere. When I enjoyed gambling in Vegas years ago, part of my routine was to visit different casinos to explore the variety. It wasn't hard to get around. Now going anywhere takes seemingly forever. Call an Uber at peak hours? It takes 15-20 minutes to arrive, then 25 minutes to go a few miles. Okay, this is partly a consequence of the huge conferences I travel to Vegas for, and that's why I hate going to Vegas for conferences.

  • Mega-hotels have gotten mind-numbingly boring. And too big. To me part of the allure of staying in a nice hotel is that it's nice. (Duh!) While the mega-casino hotels look nice on the outside, they quickly feel mind-numbingly boring on the inside. And they're too big, so it takes for-freaking-ever to get to/from your room.

Well, that's 5 reasons why I hate Vegas. But I said in the title I'm finding peace with it. How is that?

Part of it is just acceptance. Vegas is what it is. It's not like I'm doing it wrong or failing to master some "simple trick" that makes it better. The trick, if you can call it that, is not to go. Indeed, when I travel through Vegas for leisure, I stay in a non-casino hotel outside the casino areas and focus most of my time on things that are not in casinos.

And the other part of it is that when I have to stay in Vegas, in casinos, because my company wants me to work a show, I choose not to sweat the prices. Even off-Strip hotels are $200++/night because of the crowds? That's the company's decision to send me there. Expensive Uber/Lyft rides? Their decision, not mine. Stupid-expensive meals? Again, not my decisions, and not my money.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Trade Show Travelog #7
Back at the hotel - Wed, 4 Dec 2024, 10:45pm

I'm back in my hotel room now, shoes off and smoky clothes tossed in the closet. Day 3 of the AWS trade show is in the books.

My day started not with the trade show but with doing some customer-facing work from my hotel room. Sales leaders don't appreciate that I'm busy with a trade show they sent me on that I expressed a preference not to do. They still want to move other business forward, and every day counts to then. It's not good enough to have a meeting on Friday, when I'm back from travel; it has to happen today. The fate of the entire company rests upon it, they'd have me believe.

After the totally-could-have-waited-2-more-days work I dressed for the show and walked over. I'm staying at the Wynn now, so it wasn't a brutal walk. I worked the booth on the show floor from 1-6pm. In the past I used to do 6-8 hour shift with minimal complaint... but this 5 hour shift today had me checking my watch halfway through. By the end of the day almost everybody in the booth was grumbling about their aching feet/ankles/legs. ...Everybody except the money-saving genius who decided to forego the carpet padding because it cost extra. Said genius was barely in the booth today, of course.

This evening a bunch of us went to dinner at Sinatra in the Encore hotel/casino. It was an easy "yes" for me because the Encore is connected to the Wynn, where I'm staying now. And also because I enjoy Italian-American cuisine. And that's despite eating there last night, too. In fact some of the waiters and the sommelier recognized me. I made the dinner less repetitious by ordering the veal osso buco this evening instead of the (ginormous) veal parmigiana. The flavors of the meals are as unalike as apples and oranges, but between the two I think the osso buco was the better choice.

Well, like I said, I'm back in my room now. For the night. I have no interested in clubbing or hitting a bar. Drinking too much is a younger person's sport. And I have no interest in gambling anymore; all the games on the Strip suck now. Even watching the ploppies piss away their fat stacks of cash on games with terrible house edges is no fun. It's like cattle walk ploddingly to the slaughter.

Tomorrow will be the last day of the show. I'm scheduled 10-1 but may work as late as show close at 4. My flight's not until around 7pm. I'll see if I can stand-by to an earlier flight. Meanwhile, I should close my computer up soon and try to get more than 6 hours sleep tonight.

canyonwalker: My old '98 M3 convertible (cars)
This afternoon I spent 90 minutes sitting at the tire shop to get two tires on our convertible replaced. Just four months after our last visit to the tire shop, here we are again. Two more tires have fallen victim to the pothole riddled roads in the SF Bay Area.

This car's tires are fairly prone to damage from potholes because they're run-flats. By design they remain driveable after minor damage. But the stiffer sidewalls that are part of that design are more susceptible to damage from hitting bumps too hard. And when there's damage on the sidewall it's (a) dangerous and (b) basically unfixable. The tires have to be replaced.

For years we've been buying tires at America's Tire. They're convenient because they have a shop a 10 minute drive away. But the big reason we buy from them is they offer a road-hazard insurance policy. For an extra 15% (roughly) of the cost of a new tire they'll repair or replace it for free. And they're a nationwide chain, so we can get warranty service even if we've driven hundreds of miles from home.

It's not hard to do the math on this. Paying 15% means I'm betting on roughly 1-in-7 odds of a tire needing to be replaced due to damage before old age. With these pothole allergic run-flats and the crumbling state of California roads, it's a bet I'll place. I figure my odds are at least 1-in-3... for a 7-to-1 payoff. See, insurance really is like gambling! And already one of the two tires I bought just four months ago is being replaced today, so I'm beating the house.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
North Las Vegas Travelog #14
Back at the hotel - Sun, 19 Feb 2023, 11pm

We took it easy at the hotel this afternoon after finishing up our day trip to Valley of Fire. We soaked in the hot tub again. It's nice that it's close to our room since we're not staying at one of Las Vegas's casino mega-hotels. It's just down two flights of stairs (stairs are right next to us, elevator is not), out the door, and through the gate.

We did feel the call of the wild, though. The other wild, the one of reckless hedonism. The one of those aforementioned casino mega-hotels. We went to downtown Las Vegas for the evening.



Our first order of business was dinner. We parked at the Four Queens and ate at one of their restaurants, a brewery. Then we walked out to see the Fremont Street Experience. I shot the short video above. The Experience is something that Midwesterners gawk at. I've seen it before. And even the first time I saw it, about 25 years ago now, I was like, "Okay. That's gaudy. And somebody has to pay a hell of an electricity bill."

We walked around several of the casinos downtown to check out their vibes. Unlike out on the strip, where neighboring casinos are actually a 15-20 minute walk from each other, downtown they're pretty much right next to each other. We strolled through several with ease.

Vegas is a place that has changed, and hasn't. Many of the same casinos that were here 25 years ago are still here. Some look similar to before, some have changed. A few things that were different:

The casinos are more overt with using sex— specifically, sex that appeals to heterosexual men— to sell. At the open-to-the-street bars many of the casinos now have (which itself it different from years ago) there are pedestals with go-go dancers gyrating to the music. At at least one bar the dancers were simply on the bar top.

There were go-go dancers in some of the casinos, too. And by that I don't mean they were in a club in a casino.... They were dancing on pedestals in the gambling pits. Also, at several casinos being a woman with a large chest and a willingness to show it off in a tight uniform was apparently a job requirement for dealing Blackjack and other games.

One thing that's changed for the better in Las Vegas is smoking. Oh, it's still allowed, and people still do it, but there are way fewer smokers than 25 years ago. Walking through the casinos we could smell the smoke, and our clothes and hair smelled of it when we got back to the room, but it wasn't as fierce as when we played Vegas and Reno regularly years ago.

We did more than just walk through the casinos. I sat down and played Blackjack for a while. I was up a few hundred at one point but then my luck turned and I couldn't make a hand when I had a big bet out. Hawk simply enjoyed watching me. Years ago she would have played herself but she felt way too rusty this evening. ...Which is reasonable because it's a money game. You shouldn't play for money if you're not confident you know what you're doing.


canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
The past few days in Las Vegas are reminding me why I hate Las Vegas. Actually, pretty much every time I visit Las Vegas reminds me why I hate the place! Yes, the new casinos can be very pretty....

Las Vegas casinos... beautiful on the outside, empty on the inside (Nov 2022)

...But other than the superficial looks there's nothing worth it here anymore.

I used to like Las Vegas for the gambling. Gambling was the main product the casinos offered, and they were competitive to attract customers. The games were good. In games like Blackjack and Craps, if you knew what you were doing you could play with a small house edge.

Today the games suck. The casinos have changed the rules in ways that are massively hostile to players. Blackjack pays 6:5 instead of 3:2, more than tripling the house edge, unless you play at least $100 minimums. New "easier" craps more than triples the house edge on the basic bet. Roulette now has triple zero instead of double or even single. (Sense a pattern? Games are literally 3x the con they used to be.)

While the games have gone downhill, food has gone upscale... and not altogether in a good way. All the food in casinos is way overpriced. It's not just the fancy, high end restaurants that are spendy; ordinary eats are priced like airport food or stadium food. Think $20 for 2 slices of pizza and a Coke. And the fancy places? Many of them aren't worth the $100, $200, $300, or more per person they work out to be.

But now that overpriced food is the product. Years ago you'd walk into a casino and you'd have to go through a maze of games to get to the food. Today you walk into a casino and you're in a way overpriced shopping mall/food court... with gambling hidden at the back.

It bewilders me that so many people still treat Las Vegas as something magical. Yesterday I one of the people walking beside me was on the phone with his family narrating his experience at the craps table the night before, going throw-by-throw and remarking things like, "She made point on a 4. You should always pass the dice after point on a 4!" as if that statement made any sense or bore any significance.

So many people consider Las Vegas a bucket list destination. Okay, yeah, see it once, but understand it's a just another tourist trap now. Come and see it once, but plan to hold tightly to your money and get out fast.


canyonwalker: Cthulhu voted - touch screen! (i voted)
I've written a few blogs recently about ballot propositions in California: what ballot props are, and problems that can make them thorny to decide on. I started this series as a slow roll leading up to election day, meaning to spend time examining each of the props. Alas I rolled a bit too slow. Election day is just two days away, and I haven't written anything about specific races or measures yet. Thus I'll group together the 7 statewide measures in two blogs.

Prop 1: Protect Abortion Rights: HELL YES!

Proposition 1 is a state constitutional amendment to explicitly recognize an individual's right to reproductive freedom. There's so much I could write about why I'm voting HELL YES on this (technically I'm just voting "Yes"; there isn't a super-like option on the ballot) but I'm not going to bother. It's just the right thing to do.

As a legal matter, Prop 1 is a Legislative Constitutional Amendment. That means it has been approved by the state legislature with a 2/3 supermajority vote and now needs approval by a simple majority of the voters to become part of the state constitution.

Prop 26: Legalize Sports Betting in Tribal Casinos: No.

Proposition 26 is one of two measures on the ballot this election cycle to expand gambling in the state. I'm not opposed to gambling in general but I'm also not opposed to the status quo of how gambling is limited in California. Prop 26 would increase the scope of casino-style gaming allowed at tribal casinos to include roulette and dice games such as craps. It would also allow betting on horse racing at horse racetracks. If this was all the measure did, if it was a simple and clean expansion of gambling, I'd probably support it. But it's not clean. The measure includes opaque language about allowing private lawsuits over gaming regulations. That seems designed as self-dealing by the wealthiest casinos, generally those backed by out-of-state gambling mega-corporations, sue smaller competitors out of business. This stench of industry self-dealing is what turns me against this one. Follow the money. Unsurprisingly it's backed by record amounts of money from casino interests— though not all of them; just the ones that expect they'd get to wear the boot. Vote No on Prop 26.

Prop 27: Legalize Online & Mobile Sports Betting: Heck No.

Proposition 27 is even more of a self-dealing stinker than prop 26. Prop 27 would explicitly allow out-of-state organizations to offer gambling online and through mobile apps to Californians. Gambling has a dark side to it. In California, under the status quo, that dark side is somewhat addressed by gaming creating local jobs and a portion of profits being required to be put into fighting the ills of problem gambling. This expansion of gambling would cause a commensurately large increase in the ills of gambling— but with operations being shifted to out-of-state businesses (including cronyistic accounting secrecy provisions in the measure) we'd lose the ability to mitigate the downsides.Follow the money: out-of-state mega casinos are bankrolling this, along with the few tribes who already have business partnerships with themt. Who's opposing it? Like, everyone else! It's notable that both major political parties and all the big newspapers in California oppose prop 27. Vote Heck No on Prop 27..


Continued in next blog: My recommendations for Props 28-31


canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
Insurance is a racket. I say that having just gotten paid on an insurance claim this week. It's not that I'm unhappy with the claims process.... Actually the claims process went faster and smoother than I expected. What I'm unhappy with is that I own this insurance policy at all.

Insurance is a business. Businesses exist to make money off their customers. Insurance companies make money by gauging your risks and charging more in premiums than they expect to pay out in claims. Do you know what business that most closely resembles? Legalized gambling.

Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?

In casinos, oddsmakers know the chances of winning or losing better than you do. In insurance, the oddsmakers are called actuaries. There are two big differences, though.

The first is that in casinos you're almost always betting to win. You're betting on your number in craps and roulette, getting a better hand than the dealer in Blackjack, etc. With insurance you're actually betting to suffer a loss. It's like you're answering the classic Dirty Harry question, "You gotta ask yourself one question, 'Do I feel lucky?'" by betting on "Hell NO!"

Then there's big difference #2. In casinos you can choose not to bet. In fact that's almost always the best choice. Often you're forced to buy insurance. I was forced to buy the insurance policy I used this week as a condition of the mortgage on my house.

Is insurance a good deal, though? For some people and some situations, maybe most people and most situations, it is. But that means for some people and some situations, it isn't.

Don't Buy Insurance if You Can Afford a Loss

The main benefit of insurance (*except health insurance in the US) is it gives you access to a pool of money in the event of a loss. Suppose you're in a car accident and repairs and other costs are $10,000. Most people don't have $10k lying around for an emergency. But most people who can afford a car can afford, say, $100/month in car insurance.

Consider what those insurance oddsmakers actuaries are doing when they price your car insurance. They're figuring that, say, over the course of a year 1 out of 10 people like you will experience a car accident costing an average of $10,000 in covered damages. So they charge each of you $100/month. Do the math.... 10 people x $100 monthly x 12 months = $12,000. They're charging you, their customers, 20% more than the value of what you're getting. That 20% covers their business overhead and profit. That 20% is what you're paying for access to a pool of money.

Is there an alternative to paying someone else for access to a pool of money? Sure; if you have your own pool of money! If you have enough savings to cover an unexpected loss, like paying for repairs after a car accident or buying replacements after a burglary, you don't need insurance. Except that in many cases you're required to buy it.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
While I've been in Las Vegas this week I haven't wagered a single cent. It's not that I can't afford it or believe gambling is wrong. Years ago I really enjoyed playing. And I still do today... or I would if the games were any good.

Everyone knows casinos exist to make money. The games they offer all have proven house edges. I don't object to the house offering the game to make money. It's entertainment at a price. I do object when the house shifts the rules of the game to make its edge over players ridiculous.

Twenty years ago, Blackjack games in Vegas and Reno offered solid basic strategy players a house edge less than 0.5%. The best ones had house edges of less than 0.2%. Craps had a house edge of 1.4% on come/pass bets and fair money on "odds" bets. Roulette wheels were mostly "double zero", with a house edge of 5.4%, while a few offered European style or "single zero" tables with a house edge of just 2.7%.

Last night one colleague and I went looking for "good" games to play. "Good", as in Craps or preferably Blackjack offering the rules that were common in town 20 years ago. They basically don't exist on the Strip anymore. Our hotel's casino, and two three others we walked to, offered only Crapless Craps, 6:5 Blackjack, and Triple-Zero Roulette.

— "Crapless" Craps is a simplification of the game where you either roll a 7 first, or establish a point and try to reroll it before a 7. A roll of 11 no longer pays out immediately, and rolls of 2, 3, and 12 don't crap out. It's simpler but it increases the house edge on the basic Come/Pass bet from 1.4% to a whopping 5.4%.

— 6:5 Blackjack works like traditional Blackjack, except when a player has a "natural" blackjack (first two cards total 21) the house pays 6:5 instead of 3:2. This small change increases the house's overall edge by more than a point. Basic strategy players who used to face a house edge of, say, 0.4% now face worse than 1.5%.

— Triple zero Roulette worsens the already punitive house edge of the double-zero game's 5.4% to a whopping 7.9%. Seriously, who wants to lose an average of 8% on every single bet?

This is the main reason I don't like Vegas anymore. Other things like crowds, traffic, and expensive restaurants? I could somewhat ignore them to focus on gambling, but the gambling just isn't worth it now.

NextLeaving Las Vegas... Boulevard


canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
I checked in to my hotel in Las Vegas about an hour ago. We're at the Aria again this year; same as 2020. My room is similar in look to the one I had 2 years ago, except this time it has a Strip view:

My Room at the Aria Las Vegas (Mar 2022)

I don't recall if my room last time had a Strip view. I wasn't in my room and awake enough to really stare out the window. And I'm pretty sure I didn't have any opportunities to look outside during daylight.

I've got a few hours between checking in to the hotel and checking in to our conference and attending the first event this evening. Some people would use this time to begin sampling all that Las Vegas has to offer. I'm using it to relax in my room. That's partly because I need to relax a bit and partly because, well, I'm not interested in most of what Las Vegas has to offer.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not a prude, or anything. I used to play Vegas and Reno many years ago. I enjoyed them years ago, enough that I made several trips a year. But for what I liked about it then, it's gone downhill since. The table games are mostly shit now, with awful rules that house enormous odds.

It used to be that casinos competed for gamblers by offering good odds. Even though almost no gambler would win against the house in the long run, the belief that it was possible, or at least the belief that it was close to a fair game, was what kept people coming. Moreover, the rooms, food, and shows were loss leaders to draw gamblers. That mean great rooms, food, and shows, cheap.

Over the past 20 years the gambler mentality shifted from "I'm going to gamble and I think I can win, so I care about finding a good game" to, "I'm just going to lose, so I might as well find someplace swanky looking to enjoy losing in." Casino-goers as a whole lost even the slightest awareness of good games vs. shit games. And the rooms, food, and shows became ends in and of themselves. Now you can routinely pay hundreds for a room, hundreds per seat for a dinner, and hundreds per seat for a show.

This is the new Vegas?

Deal me out.

UPDATE: While Vegas itself is no fun, Seeing Colleagues in 3D (next blog) sure is!

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