canyonwalker: Uh-oh, physics (Wile E. Coyote)
Several years ago we started replacing the light bulbs in our house with LED bulbs. LED technology had been available for at least a few years before that. We delayed in embracing it because the cost was high at first. A package of LED bulbs often cost 10x what a package incandescent bulbs with the same light output cost. When the purchase price differential dropped to merely 3x we decided to give it a shot. I penciled out how LED bulbs save more in lower electricity consumption than they cost. In addition to consuming about 1/8 as much electricity as incandescent bulbs, LED bulbs also last way longer. ...Or at least they're supposed to.

LED bulbs aren't living up to their promise of long life (Oct 2024)

Within months of installing the first LED bulbs in our house I noticed that some of them were burning out quickly. Instead of lasting 7-8x as long, or even longer, than their incandescent counterparts, they were burning out in less than 1/4 the time. Not all the LED died young, but it seemed like about 1/3 did. That failure rate was annoying given the product's high cost, but I took it in stride as perhaps growing pains in a new industry.

This issue came to the forefront of my mind again this month. One of the light bulbs in our bathroom fixture started to flicker. "Oh. it's the last incandescent bulb dying," I thought to myself. "Now I can replace it with an LED bulb and we'll be all LED!"

When I unscrewed the bulb I found I was mistaken. The dying bulb was an LED. And the two bulbs next to it, still living their best lives, were older incandescent lights. In fact they had greatly outlived yet-another LED bulb. One of the LEDs that's supposed to live 7-8x as long as them.

I shared this frustration with a few neighbors when we were chatting about ways to reduce utility bills. Two jumped on this issue right away; they, too, have experienced a significant portion of LED bulbs dying waaaay before their supposed lifetimes. "The label claims are bunk!" one neighbor charged. "Maybe they're still working out manufacturing quality problems," I suggested.

One neighbor objected strenuously to our criticisms, insisting the bulbs are all great, the technology is great, and that we're just mistaken. Perhaps not coincidentally she works for a company that makes LED bulbs. 🤣
canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Recently an acquaintance challenged me with the argument, "Green power is a massive jobs killer. You're going to put everyone in coal and oil out of work." I'm not sure why he put that challenge in front of me as we weren't discussing power generation technology, or green power, or electric utilities, or the employment rate. I can only imagine he sprung that on me because he knows I'm politically liberal, and that was the latest "destroy the libs" talking point implanted in his mind by the TV charlatans he's outsourced his critical thinking to.

I didn't engage the argument with this person as there wasn't time, but if there was I would have responded like I did to my father in law when he raised the same concern several years ago. FIL is politically liberal but lives in an area where most people he knows are aligned to the alternate-reality right. He hears their talking points repeated frequently enough without effective counterpoint that he worries they might be right. In addition, he lives in a state where coal mining has been a big industry in the past, and as a lifelong Democrat he has a lot of sympathy for the plight of blue-collar workers.

"What's going to happen to all the blue collar jobs like coal mining?" he asked me, earnestly. "Not everyone can earn advanced degrees and do white-collar work like you."

Here's how I responded then, same as I'd respond now if I thought my acquaintance actually wanted to listen and consider my argument as opposed to merely repeat a soundbite and gloat about how he "owned" me.

"First of all, coal mining jobs have been on the decline for a long time. Much of that is due to automation. Coal mining was always dirty, dangerous work, so that's a good thing. And most of the rest of the decline is due to natural gas, another fossil fuel, becoming cheaper to produce than coal.

"Second, just because solar farms and wind turbines don't need coal miners, doesn't mean there's no skilled-labor jobs there. After white-collar engineers design the systems, it takes skilled factory workers to manufacture them, truck drivers to deliver them, and electricians and welders and crane operators and other trades to install them. Then, once green power generators are switched on, keeping them maintained and operating well for the next 30 years takes an army of field service workers. These are all good paying, hard-hat jobs."


When I shared this with FIL he was already smiling before I got to the last sentence. He practically said it along with me.

The simple fact is green power doesn't mean energy now pops into existence so we can fire all the blue collar workers. Building, erecting, and maintaining green power infrastructure, like wind turbines, means plenty of skilled-labor jobs.
canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Yesterday, August 1, a rule banning the sale of incandescent light bulbs went into effect. The rule was a long time coming as it was originally issued in 2007— by the Department of Energy in the George W. Bush administration. It was rolled back in 2019 by the Trump administration, then reinstated with updates last year under Joe Biden. Example news coverage: CNN Business article, 1 Aug 2023.

Incandescent light bulbs— no longer a bright idea!The light bulb "ban" has gotten tangled up in culture war politics. Even the notion that it's a light bulb ban is part of the culture way. Here are Five Things about what's actually happening:


  1. No, you don't have to throw away your old light bulbs. It's a ban on selling them, not a ban on using the ones you already own. Though there are economic reasons why you'd want to replace your old-tech incandescent bulbs with modern LEDs; see below.

  2. Incandescent bulbs are low-tech and inefficient. The technology for these bulbs has been a standard since Thomas Edison patented it in 1880. About 90% of the energy they consume is wasted as heat. That's why the Easy-Bake Oven you had as a kid used light bulbs as its heating element!

  3. The rule mandates an efficiency standard, not specific products. A lot of people understand this as, "Government bureaucrats just outlawed light bulbs." It's worth noting that the rule doesn't mandate any particular type of light bulb you have to buy; it merely sets a minimum standard for their efficiency. This one of the changes the Biden administration made last year, and it's is good policy design. Rather than legislate what the technology is, legislate what it has to do. For those interested in the fine print, the rule is that light bulbs must emit a minimum of 45 lumens per watt. A lumen is an actual measure of light; a watt is a measure of energy. Typical incandescent bulbs produce around 700 lumens of light while consuming 60 watts of power. That's an output of 11.7 lumens/watt, well below the new standard of 45.

  4. LED bulbs are way more efficient— and last longer, too. Modern light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs are 6x to 8x more efficient than incandescent bulbs. That efficiency means you consume— and pay for— less power. Several years ago I did the math on switching to LED bulbs. My conclusion was, don't run out and replace all your bulbs now, but it's a no-brainer to buy the more efficient replacements when the old ones wear out.

  5. The law exempts a number of specialty bulbs, including those designed for appliances (think the bulbs in your fridge and oven) and automobiles. And your treasured childhood Easy-Bake Oven? It was actually redesigned in 2011, after 48 years on the market, not to use an incandescent bulb anymore.



canyonwalker: My old '98 M3 convertible (cars)
I've been meaning to write a summary of my experience driving & riding in an electric vehicle (EV) for 500 miles earlier this month. My self imposed deadline is end of month... and here at 9-ish pm on the 31st I'm just going to make it. 😅

What did we Drive?

Two of my friends bought a Hyundai Ioniq 5.

David and his new Hyundai Ioniq 5 (Aug 2022)

Theirs is the SEL trim level with AWD. That's probably a bit more than they wanted, but new car inventory is so tight right now they had to take what they could find. And just finding this one was hard. They searched in widening circles from home, ultimately finding this one at a dealership in Henderson, Nevada— over 500 miles away!

I joined my friend, David, to drive it home from Las Vegas over a weekend earlier this month. BTW, yes, their decision to look that far away instead of giving up was inspired by the decision my wife and I made when we bought a new used car last summer from San Diego. So after an early-morning flight to Vegas one Saturday I met up with David, went to the dealer with him, picked up the new car, and started the 500+ mile drive home.

Five Things

1) "It drives like a real car". That was a joke the car salesman made as he was driving us over to the dealership to complete paperwork. He gets a lot of customers curious about the car, and he knows it well from driving one himself for a year. Some people think EVs are weird. Some have definitely looked weird. But in 2022 they're becoming mainstream in how they look— and how they handle. The Hyundai Ioniq 5 looks, handles, accelerates, and brakes so much like a conventional car— and a nice conventional car, at that—a casual passenger might not notice it's an EV. That's a big part of why Car and Driver magazine named it their EV of the Year a few weeks ago. It beat out Teslas, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, the Rivian R1t, and the Lucid Air (to name just a few) in their comparison.

2) It really is comfortable. This may seem like a repeat of the point above, but it's worth emphasizing. The Ioniq 5 is simply a nice car. It looks modern but not too outré. Inside it's very comfortable, with quality gear. There's definitely no sense of, "You've chosen an EV so you must want to sit in an economical penalty box." The car accelerates well with its two motors and AWD. (The non-AWD version is slower.) Handling is sharp. Although the car has plenty of height on the inside, being designed like a crossover SUV, the lack of a conventional powertrain underneath means the body can sit lower to the ground. The result is interior space without a high step-in height or exposure to crosswinds that taller SUVs suffer.

3) Trips take planning. Alas, this is the Achilles' heel of EVs right now. The infrastructure for electrical recharging is nowhere near as built out as the gasoline infrastructure. In a town of any size, or at an oasis along the highway, you can expect to find a gas station that will sell gas that works in any gas vehicle to anyone with cash or a credit card, and fill up in minutes. With an EV, charger stations are fewer and far between. And you've got to find one with the right plugs. And you've got to find one with fast charging capability or it might take hours to recharge. And you've got to pick one that's in the network you've subscribed to, or you'll be paying a non-member price that makes your recharge no cheaper that refilling a comparable gas car. Thus we had to plan our trip around availability of charging stations and the time it takes to recharge. In particular, that meant a long drive I would've made in one day had to be split across two days.

4) Range anxiety. Although the Ioniq 5 has a stated range of 256 miles on a full charge in practice it can be a lot shorter than that. For one, charging above 80% is slow— so often you'll choose to roll on less than a full charge. Second, and even more crucially, we saw the car's range depleted fast on superhighways in the hot desert. We rolled into Barstow on electron fumes when we should've had 60 miles of stated range left. A similar thing happened on our next tank of electrons, too.

5) Will charger networks get worse before they get better? Two or three companies are already building out charger networks across the country. Right now they're not interoperable. You pay for a membership with one. It's not like gas, where you just pay the pump price at whichever brand station you stop at. And how fast will they grow? In particular, will they grow faster— or slower— than EV adoption? Even in just 4 fillups I saw how recharging could go bad. Right now it works okay, but only because demand is below supply. If a lot more people start driving EVs before networks expand enough, recharging will turn into a time-sink clusterfuck.

EVs aren't for Me— Yet

It was a fun experience driving an EV for a weekend and 500+ miles. Definitely more revealing an experience than test-driving one for a few miles near a dealership. Sadly my conclusion is that EVs are not for me. Yet. The driving experience was fine; but it's all the concerns about the refueling experience that I deem unacceptable. It's kind of a mess now, and it's not clear that it won't get worse before it gets better. And even "better" might not yield a car it's practical to drive ±500 miles in day. That's not something I do often, but it's something I do.

The use case an EV is practical for is the in-town runabout. Especially if you have access to free charging, like at a school or place of work. Hey, if I could buy a special model of gas car that my employer would let me fill up for free, that'd totally change the analysis, too!
canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Last Thursday the California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted to approve a regulation that phases out the sale of new gas-powered cars, trucks and SUVs by 2035. The rule phases it in with a few steps. By 2026, 35% of new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the state must be either zero-emission, plug-in hybrid, or hydrogen-powered models. The target rises to 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. Existing vehicles are not affected, nor are sales of used vehicles. Example news coverage: NPR article, 25 Aug 2022; NY Times article, 29 Aug 2022.

It'll be interesting to see what comes from this. So far we've been stuck in a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation where some automakers say, "The demand's not there," while many buyers say, "The choices aren't there." To be sure, there's a lot of development left to be done on providing more choices— and more affordable prices. The EVs sold today are expensive compared to the average new passenger vehicle. A government mandate would help break through the problem of manufacturers waiting on an answer to the chicken-and-egg question. And even though this is just one state's policy, not a nationwide policy, California is both (a) a huge market within the US and (b) a first mover on automobile & climate policy that many other states copy.
canyonwalker: My old '98 M3 convertible (cars)
Our second-half drive today was yet another object lesson that it's not so easy, being green. Again on the leg from Barstow to Bakersfield we experienced disappointing electro-mileage, about only two-thirds of the rated range. It wasn't quite as bad as the leg from Henderson, NV to Barstow, CA earlier in the day, which we finished with only 5 miles of range left. Though we did have a white-knuckle moment again.

As we were at the top of the Tehachapi Pass  noticed that the battery had once again depleted way more rapidly than forecast, leaving us with only about 35 miles of range remaining— and we were still about 35 miles out from our destination. We didn't want to roll in on electron fumes again.

I asked David, who was driving, to slow down. Going slower is more efficient. Meanwhile I tried looking up charging stations in the town of Tehachapi. The apps in the car and in Apple Car Play were close to useless while driving. And the small town of Tehachapi seemed to have only slow chargers. I reasoned that an emergency electron stop would be unnecessary as the road ahead entailed a steep downhill grade. Indeed, through the combination of easing off the throttle and letting gravity do some of the work in pulling us downhill toward Bakersfield telescoped our remaining mileage. We reached the hotel with 33 miles of range left.

After checking in, stowing our bags, and going out for dinner it was time to charge up the car. There was a charging station 1/2 mile away. We hooked up the car and waited outside in the still smoldering evening heat for 30 minutes.

Status screen at the charging station (Aug 2022)

While there we discussed the pros and cons of driving an EV. The depleted range of driving in the high heat is a big minus. The sparse availability of fast charging stations outside of major metro areas is a minus. The fussiness of the charging pumps is also a minus. By this point we'd visited three charging stations already during the day, and at each one there was at least one pump that was malfunctioning.

"But at least it's so much cheaper than driving a gas car," David asserted.

"Is it?" I asked.

While it's true that David's not paying out of pocket for charging, it's not really free. Two years of AYCE membership in charging network was rolled into the purchase price of the car. The pumps happily tell you how many dollars you're "saving"— i.e., how much each charge would cost if you were paying as a regular member. Their rate per kWh is not cheap.

"How can you compare it to gas?" David asked.

"Figure out the cost per mile of buying each type of fuel," I responded. I started to do some arithmetic out loud while we stood in the still smoldering evening heat.

By this point the pump refilled the battery to the charge we'd had upon leaving Barstow. The market price shown on the meter was $26. For that money we could have bought 5 gallons of gas. On a trip of 131 miles (Barstow to Bakersfield distance) a gas car would need to get 26.2 mpg to get there on the same cost equivalent of fuel. Our Nissan Xterra SUV wouldn't have beaten that; it would've gotten 18mpg on this trip. Our BMW convertible would've edged out the EV with about 28mpg. And plenty of more economical cars could've thumped the EV with way better than 26mpg fuel economy.

Bottom line, this EV is not showing well in terms of fuel economy right now. Electron filling stations are few and far between, somewhat hit-or-miss to use, and— with the car way under-performing its rated range— no cheaper than buying gas.


canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
It struck me the other day that it's been a long time since I've cared about getting my nickel back. No, I don't mean Nickelback, the Canadian grunge-rock band popular in the early 00s that everybody loves to hate the past 10 years....

Nickelback

...I mean getting a nickel back. As in, returning recyclable bottles and cans for the 5 cent (or more!) deposit.

When I was a kid the notion of getting 5¢ back for returning a bottle seemed hopelessly old-fashioned. It was the stuff of my dad's stories from his own childhood, back when everything looked like black-and-white TV and soda and beer companies would wash the old bottles and refill them. But even though mass reuse of bottles has long since gone the way of black-and-white TV, paying a deposit hasn't— and least not in some states.

Nickel Back

My first experience with returning cans and bottles for the 5¢ deposit came when I attended college in New York. A nickel was worth more then than it is today— and way more to a starving college student. My housemates and I would save our empties in their original cartons and take them back to the supermarket with us on our next shopping trip. It was often worth about $2 off on our groceries. Again, real money to college students back then!

A big part of what made the system work was the return was easy. All the major grocery stores in town had container-return areas. In the small city where I lived these were staffed counters. We'd wait in line, hand our bags and cartons over to a staffer who'd count them out, and get a receipt valid for cash back or a discount at checkout. In bigger cities the process was automated, with grocery stores having automated machines. They were nice self-service setups, with customers inserting their empties one at a time and getting cash out at the end.

It's different out here in California. While we have deposits, we don't have effective returns.

The difference is that New York required large grocery stores to handle returns. California made it optional, which meant no stores did it. (Returns take up valuable space and staff time, and attract scavengers stores would rather not have come in.) California instead had return centers run by cities and counties... but these were too few, usually inconveniently located, and had short hours. In NY it was great being able to return empties for money back just steps away from grocery shopping.

No More Nickels Back?

Many years after moving to California I don't even know where to go to claim my nickels back. At first I did, but it was out of the way and the hours were poor (like I mentioned above)... then they closed it. For at least 20 years I haven't even thought about carrying empties back for a deposit return.

Oh, I still recycle. Recycling is easy. There's a bin outside I put my cans and bottles in, and it's taken to the city dump. But they don't give you your deposit back.

And you know what? I barely care about those nickels back. The flip side of those nickels being worth real money, years ago, when I was a college student, is that today, years later, when I'm professionally employed, they're just not worth much. I looked at the recycling bin outside my kitchen door the other day and thought, "Hmm, I bet there's $3 in there when it's full!" Then I thought, "And it's not worth $3 to drag that sack across town, to a facility that smells like a dump and is only open a few hours a day, and wait in line probably only to get a voucher that I have to mail off to some state office to get a check in the mail 2-3 weeks later." Nope, they sure don't make it easy!


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