canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
There's a grass-roots "economic blackout" that's brewed up for today, February 28. The idea of this one-day, buy-nothing day is to protest major corporations renouncing their DEI—Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion—initiatives after Trump's election. That's how promoters of the event describe it, anyway. I'm not going to participate.

Understand that my objection here is not to the goals of this protest. I am sickened by MAGA politics and its destructive tactics, as well as by the widespread capitulation of American businesses and business leaders to its racist, sexist, and antidemocratic goals. It's terrible what that side is doing. But this protest won't change any of that. Here are Five Things why:

  1. "Buy nothing this one day" protests have almost zero economic impact because consumers just shift their buying to the days before and after the protest. I've seen a few protests like this in past years against Big Oil. Organizers rallied people not to buy gas for their cars on one specific day. Well, people just filled up their cars the day before or the day after. Economic activity across the span of a week was virtually unchanged.

  2. Within the context of which businesses might be hurt by one day of reduced business, even if balanced on either side by other days of increased business, a lot of what's impacted are small, local businesses. Many of those stores with big brand names on the sign are franchised. They're owned and operated by a small, local or regional business, not the national/global megacorp that owns the brand name. So a lot of who you're hurting is a small businessperson in your community, not the decision-makers in the corporate boardroom.

  3. If you want to demonstrate to big corporations "the power of the purse" you need to make an enduring change to your buying habits. Anti-DEI leaders understood this when they organized a boycott against Bud Light in 2023 over its sponsorship of a single trans person among many other influencers it sponsored. Protesters didn't just stage a "Buy no Bud Light for a day" boycott. They stopped buying Bud Light indefinitely. Bud Light sales dropped around 20% after a month, the brand lost its #1 spot in the market, and maker Anheuser Busch lost shelf space to competitors as a result. Companies are capitulating to anti-DEI because they see proven ability to cause long-term harm to their businesses.

  4. Successful boycotts don't just make businesses pay attention; they make politicians pay attention. But the MAGA politicians have already made clear that they don't care. MAGA leaders have inoculated themselves by admitting there will be "pain" as their changes are implemented. And this week we see MAGA Congresspeople canceling town halls rather than face angry constituents. They don't yet care their voters are unhappy; they're still more afraid of crossing Donald Trump.

  5. We're going to have to win this fight at the ballot box, not the cash register. And it's going to take a while. ...Not only because the next federal election isn't for another 20 months but because we have to get the MAGA politicians to pay attention to voters. Right now they don't care that voters are unhappy; they're still more afraid of Donald Trump organizing far-right challengers against them in the next primary. We've got to build and sustain popular pressure against these politicians. We've got to make them more afraid of losing a general election to the center-left than losing a primary to the far right.


As a postscript, I see some people saying that the real value of this one-day boycott is not the ineffectual economic impact but showing people there is power in unity. I understand that point. I'd like to believe it's true. I'd like to believe because there's also an argument that it could go the other way. What if in addition to accomplishing zero, economically, it gives its participants a false sense of accomplishment? That would frankly make it worse than useless as those people whose efforts could otherwise be harnessed for something actually useful will proudly string up their "Mission Accomplished" banners, pat themselves on the back for having Done Something, and return to the status quo.
canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
French President Emmanuel Macron has been pushing proposed changes to the country's retirement system for... well, since his reelection campaign. His proposals have proved deeply unpopular, though. The French parliament made clear it would not enact them, so Macron is using a constitutional loophole to change them through executive order. Protests that have been going on for weeks turned violent late last week.

What's at stake may seem quaint to us Americans. Macron wants to increase the retirement age from 62 to 64. Here in the US the "full" retirement age is already 67 (for people born since 1960). And it's not just we Americans who work longer than the French. In Germany the retirement age is 65 years 7 months. In the UK it's 66.

Macron's reason for pushing the reform is the same as that of various US politicians who've been calling for Social Security reform for decades: the system is unsustainable. While the math is pretty clear that US Social Security will start running short of money as soon as 2033 unless something major is changed, it's not so clear how much financial jeopardy France's retirement system faces. Partly that's because it's funded differently, paid out of general taxes rather than through a separate system of levies. The same demographic realities that imperil the US system, though— longer life expectancy and declining population growth— underlie pension cost increases in France.

Social Security in the US has been called "the electrified third rail of politics", a term popularized by Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill in 1982. The metaphor refers to public safety warnings common at the time about the dangers of touching the high-voltage third rail in many electric railway systems. Touching it is often deadly. Macron may find grabbing that third rail kills his political career.

canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
This past weekend nationwide rallies were held by March For Our Lives, a student-led organization calling for action to reduce gun violence. The rallies reminded me of a question I've asked myself a number of times recently. If I were a grade school/high school student, or a parent of a student, what would I do? Besides attend a rally, I mean. Specifically, would I refuse to attend school or send my kids to school until meaningful steps to protect students are taken?

"Protest by refusing to go to school," is an easy thing to say. And indeed, various protest organizers have suggested it. Often it's a one-day or half-day thing; "Skip school this Friday to protest gun violence." But in some corners it's "Refuse to go at all" until political leaders meaningfully address the problem.

The problem with skipping school is that it's not a solution. It does nothing to raise the pressure on the intransigent political leaders who've thwarted meaningful change for 40 years. The mounting death toll of students mowed down in their classrooms by angry people with paramilitary weapons hasn't appealed to their better angels; so all that's left now for protest is to make them feel the pain of the situation they've created. Students skipping school does not do that. The people most hurt by that are the students themselves. They lose educational opportunities, they may be disqualified for a high school diploma, their prospects for college are jeopardized. I can only imagine how risky it would've been for me to tell the highly selective colleges I was applying to as a teenager, "Well, I didn't actually get a H.S. diploma because I was staying home to protest lack of public safety." Likewise if I were the parent of a high school student I don't think I could in good faith support them choosing to stay home.

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