canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Another Valentine's Day has passed. And for me, at least, another Valentine's Day has been ignored. I even had a good excuse this year.... I'm in Las Vegas for a mandatory sales conference— this year's SKO.

Working on Valentine's Day (image from Readers Digest)

This isn't even the first time my company's SKO has overlapped Valentine's Day. It did last year as well as in 2019, for example. In 2019 my department managers even made fun of it with "Valentine's Day is a Fake Holiday Anyway" menus at our team dinner.

Thus it's a good thing my spouse and I don't care about Valentine's Day. Bah, humbug!

canyonwalker: Mr. Moneybags enjoys his wealth (money)
This past weekend I worked a bit on my taxes. I'd say I started my taxes already except that that's a misleading statement. I actually started them a year ago. I start keeping records for the tax year starting on January 1. Usually by now I have most of my 1099s for the previous year and start working on my tax filing, but this year some of them are a little slow. Thus this weekend I spent some time combing through one of the 1099s and comparing it to my own records— I found a mistake in my records!— but I did not start entering data into TurboTax yet.

Ah, TurboTax. The software I have an abusive relationship with.

My abusive relationships with TurboTax, 2024 edition

Maybe next weekend? Oh, but it's a holiday weekend and I might be traveling. Plus I don't know when those other 1099s will come in. Maybe the weekend of Feb 24-25. I'll probably have been slapped around at work a bunch by then and will be ready to be slapped around by tax software.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Yesterday was the Superbowl, the most watched event of any kind in the US. An estimated 200 million Americans tuned in for it on TV. And they were rewarded with a US victory! And not just any victory but a back-to-back, 58 times victory!

US Wins 58th Consecutive Football Championship!

That, of course, is because this championship is for a league that only US teams belong to. The finalists were my hometown San Francisco 49ers, favored by a couple of points by oddsmakers over the defending Kansas City Chiefs.

The 'Niners played strongly throughout regulation time but the Chiefs scored a field goal late in the 4th quarter to send the game into overtime. The Niners scored a field goal to take the lead, but then under the league's new overtime rules the Chiefs got one possession to decide their win or loss. They capitalized on the opportunity with a successful touchdown drive, winning the game in sudden-death.

canyonwalker: coronavirus (coronavirus)
I've been sick all week. Starting Sunday night I had a sore throat and slept poorly. Then other symptoms started to develop. Monday evening I had feverish chills. I think that was the worst of it. But that wasn't the end of it. I've had various cold symptoms all week. I think the most annoying is sticky phlegm in my lungs that I can't seem to cough out.

Part of The New Normal is wondering, "Is this Covid?" whenever cold-like symptoms appear. Every coughing fit, sneezing fit, sore throat, etc. is suspicious.

Part of the new normal is wondering "Is this Covid?" with every cold (Jan 2024)

Indeed I did something Coronavirus-risky a few days before my symptoms started: I traveled on an airplane and attended a training session for 2 days with 25 colleagues. And judging from the conversations I heard over breakfast each day, an alarming number of my colleagues espouse all sorts of gloom-and-doom, the-country's-going-to-hell beliefs... except the belief that, "Hey, y'all, Coronavirus is a real thing, it's still potentially deadly, and there are simple things you can do to protect yourself... like get vaccinated."

So I tested myself for Covid in between gobbling all sorts of pills to treat cold symptoms. Covid: negative. It's just a cold. And not even a particularly bad one, though it is the worst I've had in several years now.


canyonwalker: Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. Travel! (planes trains and automobiles)
One of the saddest sights in the eyes of a frequent flyer is the view at the start of the year every year when all the counters for elite status reset to zero. All those precious metals and stones like gold, platinum, and diamond earned with 75k, 100k, or more flight miles, or 50 or 75 nights with a hotel chain.... Those numbers are now zero, and the chase starts over to build them up again. It happens to me, too. Here's what my Southwest Airlines status page looked like on January 1:

At the start of the year all the elite status counters reset to zero (Jan 2024)

I've shared this observation a few years in a row now. Usually I post it in early January after summarizing the previous year's travel statistics. This year it got queued in my blog backlog behind two and a half weeks of catching up on my trip to Australia.

This year with the benefit of extra time to think about it 😅 I realized instead of calling it the Elite Status Chase I should call it the Southwest Elite Status Chase. That's because while I have elite status with several airlines and hotel programs, Southwest is the only one where I have to chase it. With United and Marriott I have lifetime status. With Hilton and IHG I have status via credit cards.

I Have a Plan. And a Spreadsheet.

It's a long road from 0 to good elite status. On Southwest it's 70,000 tier qualifying points (TQPs) to A-List Preferred and 135,000 Companion Pass Qualifying Points (CPQPs) to Companion Pass. As always I have a plan for how to get there. And I have not just a plan but also a spreadsheet to track it. Here's a peek:

I track my elite status progress in a spreadsheet (Jan 2024)

The spreadsheet isn't new. I created it in 2017 and have been adding a new page to it every year since. As you can see in the bit above I track not just how many points of each type I've earned (and spent) but also what my earnings forecast is. That's how I manage to my plan!

Right now for 2024 my forecast doesn't show me reaching either of the statuses I'm pursuing, but that's primarily because I don't have visibility for much of the year yet. As I get a bit further into the year and book more trips for later in the year my forecast will show the targets coming into sharper focus.
canyonwalker: Roll to hit! (d&d)
Now that the winter holidays are behind us we can get back to normal things— like playing D&D! Friday night we got together for session 6 of my D&D adventure/mini-campaign, The City of the Dead.

Recall from session 5, six weeks ago now, that the heroes had fought through a phalanx of undead creatures in the ruins of the long-abandoned city of Graymount. There were zombies, ghouls, ghasts, worgs (not undead but still dangerous), and a wraith.

Swarm of undead (modified web image)

Worn down but unbowed they pushed further through the ruined city while daylight was on their side. They located the body of Father Terence's elder, the High Cleric Baynor. Well, a magic spell located it. They learned it was locked within a corrupted temple— and guarded by some really powerful evil thing.

As the curtained opened on session 6 the group made its final decision at the steps of the fallen temple. They would leave Graymount with the information gathered thus far, regroup in their home city of Durendal to recover and resupply, and return here with more strength and preparation to recover Baynor's body and free his spirit from its own corruption. This was a wise decision.

Oh, but they couldn't go home empty-handed. Part of their cover story to the powers that be to go on this mission was to investigate the disappearance of a merchant caravan that traveled (unwisely) through Graymount. Indeed they'd already found parts of that caravan. Several of the caravan members were among the ghouls and ghasts who ambushed them that morning! And crashed in a sinkhole beneath the street was one of the caravan's wagons, its cargo splayed out at the bottom of the pit.

Down in the Tunnel

Two of the team climbed down a knotted rope into the pit. The "pit" was actually a tunnel beneath the street. Here, as in one other spot they'd found in town, the tunnel was too near the surface and the street had collapsed into it. Anyway, Herran and Terence descended into the pit to figure out what cargo they could salvage. They'd tie ropes around it to haul up with their friends' help. Meanwhile their friends, Astrin, Duncan, and Meraxes, stood guard up on the road.

Good news! Some of the wagon's cargo was recoverable. Among other things were two small kegs of Gnomish aliantha wine, an expensive delicacy. Then Terence and Herran heard a noise.

Clip-clop, clip-clop. The sound of hooves echoing. Clippity-clop, clippity-clop, the cadence grows faster. And louder. Clop-a-lop, clop-a-lop, whatever’s coming has broken into a charge!

Remember that mule you left for dead? He's baaaack! (Jan 2024)

Terence and Herran readied attacks against whatever might emerge from the darkness. Into their circle of light charges a disfigured mule, with a broken leg swinging wildly, chunks of flesh hanging loose, and a malign glow blazing from its gouged-out eye sockets. It’s a zombie mule! And not just any zombie mule but the evil animated corpse of the group's animal Herran had left for dead at the bottom of the other cave-in. It charged straight at Herran.

The two engaged the zombie mule. The creature's charge had come so fast the pair's allies above on the street hadn't had time to react yet, but now they joined in the effort. Except as they joined to reinforce Herran and Terence, more undead creatures joined the fight, too! Two bükken emerged from behind the wrecked wagon, clawing wildly at Terence. Then a wraith emerged from the wall of the tunnel.

A wraith - "The Darker in the Darkness" (adapted image)

Recall that a wraith is a ghostly monster, a shadow in the darkness. Its incorporeal shape can pass through walls and is hard to strike— indeed only magic weapons and spells can touch it, and even those have a 50/50 miss chance. It resembles who or what it was in life before it was slain by other wraiths and raised as one of them. This wraith's wispy body it dressed in wispy armor and robes, a twisted holy symbol of Charonne still showing. It’s the corrupted soul of Father Baynor again!

Wraith Baynor hisses, “This time I will destroy your allies first,” as he reaches out to Herran. The group knows the wraith's icy touch from beyond the grave can drain a person's vitality. As few as two strikes can be fatal. But fortunately for Herran the wraith misses as today the GM can’t roll better than an 8.

Terrence, still with his holy symbol in hand from fighting the mule zombie, channels his deity's power to repel the undead. He gets a baller roll and turns as a 10th level cleric. Unfortunately the weaker undead are closest and absorb the damage. The two bükken are dusted; the zombie mule gallops away on its turn. The wraith, grinning malevolently, is unaffected.

Meraxes, from above, fires down a salvo of Magic Missiles. Force attacks vs. incorporeal foes FTW! It’s less than 10 HP damage but every bit helps.

Then Astrin steps up to turn. The wraith is strong enough that her chances of affecting it are poor, but it’s the best move she has. She holds aloft her sword and intones, “By the power of Morgarath, BEGONE!” The winter light reflects off her blade as the tunnel echoes her command. She scored a totally baller roll with her Turn Undead attack. The wraith isn’t destroyed, but it is turned.

Now the team piles on. Herran goes full-attack on the shade and slashes it several times. Meraxes fires another Magic Missile salvo. The wraith begins to flee back into the tunnel wall, but Herran gets a luck AoO strike and destroys it.

FLAWLESS VICTORY!

canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
It has been cold around here the past several days. ...Not as cold as in much of the rest of the country, where there have been snowstorms and ice and freezing weather. On a normal day out here in Silicon Valley in January the temperature still rises into the upper 50s. But lately we've been cooler than that. When I went out to lunch today it was only 48°. Trust me, by local norms that's cold. You feel it when you shop or eat at a small business because many of them don't have heat.

I looked at weather forecasts today hoping to see a break in the cold snap. Nope! There's more cold weather on tap.In fact it's even getting worse for much of the country. Here are two forecast maps (click/tap image for source):

National Weather Service forecast for 12 Jan 2024

The first map (above) shows the forecast of high temps for Friday. Florida can't complain right now; they're still looking at 70s to low 80s for Friday. Here in Silicon Valley we're looking at highs around 55. That's no Florida but it's also not the northern plains states where high temps may not even break out of negative figures. ...And that's negative degrees Fahrenheit. 0° F = -18° C.

And here's where it gets worse. The cold air mass the map above shows descending from Canada over the northern plains and mountain states will push further down across the middle of the country by Sunday.

CNN Weather forecast for 14 Jan 2024

This second map is not showing actual temperature but the amount by which high temps will be below normal high temps for this time of the year. Note the dark purple in the Great Plains states... that corresponds to 40° F cooler than normal. By Sunday potentially a lot of the central US will see temps not break above zero even during the heat of the day.


canyonwalker: Roll to hit! (d&d)
A few weeks ago I read a good blog in the roleplaying games blog Gnome Stew, entitled Entertainment is Key (Nov. 2023). It's about how roleplayers have different motivations to play and how a good game master (GM) strives to understand their goals to craft a playing experience that's entertaining for everyone. It got me thinking about the successes and failures of group entertainment in the games I've played and a few techniques that help tilt the game toward the former rather than the latter.

Roleplayers have different ideas of entertainment (image by Sean Budanio)

The first thing to recognize is that gamers do have different expectations of what to get out of the game. Some are looking for high fantasy storytelling, some are looking to crush every opponent, and some just want to play everything for laughs. I've seen games struggle and occasionally fail because the players want things that are too dissimilar.

The second thing to understand is that trying to stitch together a game around conflicting interests is not the way it has to be. You can elicit players’ ideas of enjoyment, align the game to them, and ensure they fit with each other. For me this is an indispensible part of Session Zero.

I’ve found many other GMs regard Session Zero merely as a chance to align on what game system we’ll play, what our character classes are, and check that we’ve constructed our characters per the rules. To me this is only part of Session Zero. The other critical part is aligning on how we have fun with the game and with each other.

One tip I have for fellow GMs is not to make “What’s your idea of fun?” an open ended question. That’s where you’ll get a lot of vague or confused answers. I recommend instead you start by outlining the broad strokes of how you’ve designed your game. Then invite the players to identify where, within that range, they find it most enjoyable to play.

For example, in the City of the Dead game I've been running recently I pointed out in our Session Zero that the game system I’d chosen is on the “crunchier” end of the spectrum (rules-heavy D&D) because working the rules and rolling dice to determine outcomes is fun for me— up to a certain point. Then I asked the players each to weigh in on how far they liked to take letting the mechanics determine the story vs. the story determine the story. We quickly reached a consensus on how we'd enjoy playing this game. Note, if I'd asked an open ended question I probably would have gotten 5 disparate answers, but by starting with an outline and asking the group to choose where the center is, we converged on a mutually satisfying answer much faster.

D&D players always SAY they want more politics and intrigue...

A second tip for fellow GMs is to believe what your players tell you but also not believe it. Watch how they act in the game to determine whether they’re really having fun! I’ve seen this repeatedly with respect to the question, “Do you like a combat heavy game vs. roleplaying heavy?”

Players so often tell me they want more roleplaying, more courtly intrigue, etc., versus hack-and-slash… yet repeatedly when I create role-playing heavy stories they lean away from engaging them, look bored, and grumble about how they’ve “done nothing” all session since there were no combats. So yes, definitely talk about what players want from the game up front, but keep an eye on where & how they're engaging as you go, too.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
It's my 3 year anniversary of blogging on Dreamwidth. Oh, I've been blogging longer than that.... I started on LiveJournal over 12 years ago. And I do still blog on LiveJournal. I cross-post (manually 😡) to both.

Having a shorter history on Dreamwidth makes it easier to pull recent statistics from there. For example, I know from my profile I've posted 2089 blogs in 3 years and 768 in the past 12 months. That's an average of 2.1 posts per day this past year (1.9 over 3 years). I can also see which tags I've used most frequently in that time:

Most Used Tags, Past 3 Years
Rank Tag Uses
1 In Beauty I Walk 354
2 Planes Trains and Automobiles 241
3 Coronavirus 212
4 TV 160
5 Waterfalls 159


What does it mean that these tags are the top 5? Well, first, I'm happy that "In Beauty I Walk" remains my most used tag. It's the tag I use with all my posts about hiking. It's also my all-time top tag from 12+ years of blogging.

I'm happy, as well, to see "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles", about the trials and tribulations of travel (the name's an obvious reference to the classic 1987 Steve Martin/John Candy comedy) rise to the #2 spot. Along with that goes Coronavirus dropping to #3, and I'm happy about that, too. Good riddance!

Notice, as well, that a new tag has pushed its way into the Top 5: Waterfalls! Indeed I have written a lot about waterfalls in the past year. That shows up when I filter tag usage by the past 12 months:

Most Used Tags, Past 12 Months
Rank Tag Uses
1 In Beauty I Walk 129
2 Planes Trains and Automobiles 94
3 Waterfalls 78
4 No Rest for the Wicked 63
5 Weather 62
6 TV 51
7 Politics 49
8 Taking it Easy 48
9 SF Bay Area 46
10 Current Events 44


Waterfalls was my #3 tag this past year with a whopping 76 uses. Yes, we've visited a lot of waterfalls!

No Rest for the Wicked nudged up into the Top 5 this year. It even nudged out Weather to reach #4. That aligns as No Rest for the Wicked is my #4 tag over my full history of blogging.

I enumerated this table out to 10 places to show what happened to some of the other tags. You can see that while TV dropped out of the top 5 for the year, it didn't drop far. It came in 6th. My TV watching is down this year from the year before, when I watched the whole Game of Thrones series. Earlier this year I did watch a few miniseries and the current season of various shows, which is how I found 51 things to write about. Though even that seems like a long time ago as I've barely watched any TV the past 6 months.

What happened to Coronavirus? On the basis of the past 12 months it not only dropped out of the top 5, it did not make the top 10 or even top 25. It came in at 40th place, in a 3-way tie with Beer Tasting and Family, each with 20 blogs.

canyonwalker: Driving on the beach at Oceano Dunes (4x4)
In my previous blog I described how our plans came together at the last minute (well, 36 hours ahead of actually getting there) to hike Rancheria Falls. It would be a lot of driving just to hike one short hike. Thus I looked for ways to make the trip a two-fer. There was another waterfalls hike nearby, on the first bit of the Dinkey Lakes Loop. It was in just the right place to be a two-fer. The only problem? AllTrails.com says it is CLOSED.

I'm glad I read for more details because it's not actually the trail that's closed, it's the dirt road getting there. When I see that a road is closed, and I'm planning to go there in my 4x4 already, I think....

Road Closed? Challenge Accepted!

Seriously, I've driven around "ROAD CLOSED" signs several times in my 4x4. I've even driven around a "BRIDGE OUT AHEAD" sign once. And yes, that time I drove down the embankment, through the water, and back up the other side!

But this trek didn't require anything like that. There are other roads to get there. There's a whole network of dirt 4x4 roads in the area. A helpful post on the website clued me in to where to start looking, and I mapped it out.

Tamarack Ridge vehicle trailhead (Aug 2023)

We drove back west about 10 miles from the turnoff for Rancheria Falls, to the top of the Tamarack Ridge. From there a well-marked trailhead sat on the side of the road, beyond a large parking lot full of pick-up trucks with empty trailers. The area is popular with people driving XUVs. (XUVs are extreme ATVs. If you're not sure what that means, imagine a golf cart with 4 wheel drive that goes stupid, dangerously fast.)

The paved road ended just beyond the sign in the photo above. From there it was dirt roads the next 9 miles. The first 8 miles were passable by a regular street vehicle, but the last mile— after we joined with the the road that was closed lower down the mountain— definitely required high clearance. I'm pretty sure we hiked Dinkey Lakes once before, umpteen or more years ago, but I don't remember the last mile of road being that rough.

The Dinkey Lakes trailhead is... dinky (Aug 2023)

We rolled up to the Dinkey Lakes trailhead at 1pm. The Dinkey Lakes Loop is an amazing 7 mile trail in the high Sierra. From here at the trail signpost it looks... well, dinky. I'm glad I've been here before so as not to feel rooked after the tough drive.

Our plan wasn't to hike the whole 7 mile loop but only to visit a waterfalls near the start and then maybe hike up to the first lake and back. BTW, as much as hiking at Rancheria Falls was tough because of the elevation, here it's even higher, 8,600' (2.6 km) at the trailhead.

Update: keep reading as we visit... one of... the Dinkey Creek Falls.

canyonwalker: Message in a bottle (blogging)
As I wrap up the month of July I find that it's been a slow month for blogging. Slow is a relative term, of course. I posted 51 blogs this month, beating my long term goal of 1.5/day average (51 in July's 31 days is 1.65/day) but not reaching my stretch goal of 2/day. And that's where the relative part comes in. I've beaten my stretch goal 4 times already this year! Here's how it looks in a chart.

Average daily blogging, Jan 2022 - Jul 2023

I haven't done a chart since February so I figured it's time. As you can see in this chart, my frequency in July 2023 is down from the previous several months. It's way down from my all-time high in May '23. But it's down so much that to find a slower month I have to look back to November 2021.

Why the slump? What happened? Three things....

First, I didn't travel as much in July as in previous months. After what felt like almost constant travel in April and May I only took two short leisure trips in July. One of them was just this past weekend, and I haven't caught up on blogging about it yet.

Second, on a trip to Oregon earlier in the months I cut out the need for lots of separate blog entries by posting one blog sharing an epic short video of hiking seven waterfalls. That saved me a lot of time versus writing, like, 7 blogs with photos, but it's left me feeling like I blunted the impact of how much we did & saw.

Third, my heart hasn't been in it as much this month. While I have found plenty of things to write about other than travel, I've often felt like I'm forcing myself to write. If I don't care, I don't care, and that's okay.
canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
What's in a number? In the case of a telephone number, a lot. The number corresponds not to just one particular line, but the area code and branch number (the first three digits after the area code) also tell us where that line is based. Now that mobile phones on nationwide networks are commonplace, the number's less telling about where the person at that number lives, though it's still true for landlines. Buried within some area codes is a bit of additional lore. Everyone knows that area codes correspond to certain parts of a state, or in some cases a particular metropolitan area. The original area codes, those established in 1947, also told you how populous your area was.

Rotary phone from circa 1960When area codes were first established in 1947, dialing a phone worked by spinning a rotary wheel, or dial. That's where the whole verb of "dialing" a phone comes from! You'd spin the wheel one direction with your finger, using guide slots for each particular number. After each spin a spring would spin the dial back, transmitting an electrical pulse across the phone line as each detent was passed. So a 1 was 1 pulse, a 2 was 2 pulses, etc. Zero, all the way around the dial, was 10 pulses.

Because turning the wheel took time, and especially the phone signalling the evenly-spaced pulses took time, designers of the first area code system optimized it to minimize time spent dialing. They assigned the shortest area codes to the most populated areas.

"What's a 'short' area code?" you might ask. "They're all three numbers." Yes, they're all three numbers, but the issue is how many pulses were required to transmit those numbers. 212, an area code for New York City, is 5 pulses (2+1+2=5).

There were additional constraints on the original set of area codes. The first digit had to be 2-9. The second digit had to be 0 or 1. (That was because 0 and 1 weren't used in any branch numbers up to that point.) The third digit could be 2-9 if the middle digit was 1, or 1-9 if the middle digit was 0. Thus the fastest number assignable was 212, which was assigned to New York City.

Here's a map of the original area codes in 1947:

North American Numbering Plan, 1947 (courtesy of Wikipedia)
Image courtesy of Wikipedia

So, what were the most populated cities/area in 1947, as indicated by area codes?

# pulsesArea Code(s)City / Region
5212New York City
6213
312
Los Angeles, San Diego, Southern California
Chicago & suburbs
7214
313
412
Dallas & Northeast Texas
Detroit & suburbs
Pittsburgh & southwestern Pennsylvania
8215
314
413
512
Philadelphia
St. Louis & eastern Missouri
Western Massachusetts
Austin, San Antonio, Southern Texas

What's interesting about this is the way cities ranked by population in 1947 is different from today. The biggest 3 cities then are the same now— New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Each now has multiple area codes. Southern California has grown so much that 213 is now specific to part Los Angeles instead of covering the whole region. Orange County and San Diego have multiple area codes of their own. Even San Bernardino County has two area codes, including 909, the "last" of the original area code system.

What about the others? Well, if the list were being made today, Dallas would still be fourth on the list, rating an area code like 214, but Houston and Washington, DC would have jumped up into the slots alongside it with 7-pulse area codes. (Note, I'm going by rank of metropolitan area population, not city population.) Detroit would drop two categories as it's now the 14th largest metro area. Pittsburgh, now the 27th largest metro, would drop several boxes.

canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
It's a few days late, but since I'm such a science fiction fan I figured I'd jump on the bandwagon of wishing everyone a happy May 4th.

May The Fourth Be With You!

Confused? )
canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
Turkey today ratified Finland's petition to join NATO. The vote in Turkish parliament, which was hardly a sure thing, now goes to president Tayyip Erdogan, who has signaled he will sign it. Erdogan's approval was also hardly a sure thing. He demanded, and won, a few concessions from Finland as a condition of the vote. Turkey is the last of 30 NATO member countries to approve Finland's petition. Finland may officially be inducted at the next NATO member meeting in July. Example news coverage: Reuters article 30 Mar 2023.

This may sound like wonky, unimportant international news, so let me put it in context. It's about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


  1. One of Russia's stated goals for invading Ukraine was to prevent a country on its border (i.e., Ukraine) from joining NATO.

  2. Russia's invasion prompted more countries to want to join Russia; principally Sweden and Finland.

  3. Finland joining NATO greatly increases the Russia's border with NATO members. See map below.

  4. Own goal: Russia.


Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Pushes More Nations to Join NATO (map adapted from BBC image)

Prior to Russia's invasion in 2022 the country had very little border with NATO states. There was a bit with Estonia and Latvia. Counting in Kaliningrad, it shares a bit of border with Lithuania and Poland. And if you consider Belarus basically part of Russia (it has basically a sock-puppet government) it has more border with Lithuania and Poland.

One of Russia's stated goals/justifications for invading Ukraine in 2022 was to limit its border with NATO. Russia contended (i) Ukraine was going to join NATO, (ii) NATO represents a military threat to Russia, and therefore (iii) it had to annex Ukraine to keep NATO further away.

Claim (i) was false. Ukraine did not want to join NATO— though it started talking about it more seriously as Russia built up for the invasion. Claim (iii) is ridiculous logic as if Russia did annex Ukraine it would add borders with NATO member states Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland.

...Not that any of this would justify invasion even if it were true, but it didn't even make sense. And now Russia has achieved the opposite of its stated goal. Finland and Sweden, which were content being outside of NATO prior to 2022, petitioned to join. Now with Finland's membership imminent (Sweden's is still blocked on approval from Turkey) there soon will be hundreds of new miles of NATO member countries on Russia's border. Russia's aggression provoked the opposite of one of its stated goals.



canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
There's an upside to all the rainy, dreary weather we've been getting. After now 12 atmospheric rivers this season (again, normally 1-2 are enough to make news headlines for a few days) we're well past normal seasonal rainfalls in California. Reservoirs are filling up. A few are even discharging for the first time in a few years. We're gaining at least a one-year respite from drought.

I compiled a time series of charts from the U.S. Drought Monitor to show improvement in drought conditions over the past 6 months:

Rains the past 6 months have lessened California's drought (Mar 2023) (compiled from charts at droughtmonitor.unl.edu)

This is one of those cases where a picture is worth a thousand words. Just a few words I'll add in case you're not sure what you're seeing:

  • California has gone from being 100% in drought conditions, with significant areas deemed at Extreme or Exceptional levels of drought, to more than half the state being out of drought.

  • The major population centers on the coast are out of drought, as is the agricultural San Joaquin Valley.

  • The agricultural Sacramento River Valley remains in moderate drought.


...And the rain season's not even over yet. The weather forecast shows another storm coming through mid-next week.



canyonwalker: Malign spirits in TV attempt to kill viewer (tv)
A few weeks ago we started watching season 3 of The Mandalorian. It's TV we've been looking forward to ever since the second half of that other Star Wars series, The Book of Boba Fett, turned into Boba Fett Writes a Book About a Someone More Interesting. Here are my thoughts after watching the first 2 episodes.

The Mandalorian definitely has strengths going for it. Din Djarin, the title character, is a genuinely interesting character... even if the face mask thing does have actor Pedro Pascal seeming to phone in 99% of his performance. A number of the recurring characters are interesting, too. Then there's CGI costar Grogu, aka "Baby Yoda". I have hopes we might see him develop this season into something more than a MacGuffin dressed in a potato sack.

Production values remain strong. It's obvious even when the writing gets cheap (see below) that the show still have a lot of budget. The crew, artists, and animators continue doing a fantastic job.

The setting continues to be a great canvas for storytelling. The "Space Western" genre provides an outer rim of the galaxy where every planet is different and danger lurks around every corner. BTW, space-western isn't just my term for it. It's a known category within writing, and showrunner Jon Favreau has said in interviews that his idea was to create a Star Wars story that was like the Old West.

So, with all these positives, what's not to like? You knew there was a "but" coming.

Mandalorian Science Theater 3000

The "but" is the writing. The first two episodes of Mandalorian are just cheesy. I sat there on the sofa offering a sarcastic running commentary like I was Joel and the 'bots.

Mandalorian Science Theater 3000

What's so cheesy about eps. 1 and 2? Here's a partial list of things I spontaneously ragged on the show for, spoiler protected as it reveals plot points:

Episode 1 spoilers, MST3K-style )

Episode 2: coming later, as this is getting too long.


canyonwalker: Malign spirits in TV attempt to kill viewer (tv)
Season 3 of The Mandalorian has started to drop on Disney+. It looks like the first episode was released yesterday.

Poster for Season 3 of The Mandalorian on Disney+

I haven't started watching it yet. I might watch it in a few days, or I might wait a few weeks so I can binge-watch a bunch of episodes in a few days.

Meanwhile I've read a few articles in my newsfeed summarizing what's happened so far in the series to get ready for watching the new episodes. As I read one of those articles I realized all the stuff it was summarizing about the story of The Mandalorian didn't actually happen in The Mandalorian. It happened in The Book of Boba Fett. Or as I dubbed it, Boba Fett Writes a Book about Someone More Interesting.

I even remade the poster for BoBF/BFWaBaSMI chapter six:

The Book of Boba Fett Chapters 4-5: A Book About A More Interesting Character

So, to recap, here's how The Mandalorian's storyline advanced in The Book of Boba Fett:

  • Din Djarin, aka "Mando", met the two surviving members of his tribe of Mandalorians (there's more than one tribe...) in their new home on a ring-shape space station.

  • Mando learned more about the origin of the Darksaber he carries from his tribe's semi-official chief, The Armorer.

  • The other surviving member of Mando's tribe challenged him for ownership of the Darksaber. Mando won in a tough fight that showed how the Darksaber must be finessed, not forced. Mando's opponent was physically stronger than him but could not use the weapon effectively because it opposed him trying to muscle it.

  • The Armorer demanded to know if Mando has been faithful to The Way. Specifically, she asked if he'd taken his helmet off. He admitted he had. She told him he is banished from their tribe until he atones....

  • Said atonement requires washing himself in the sacred underground waters of planet Mandalore— which was destroyed years ago by Imperial bombardment. It sure looks like Mando's own tribe has given him an impossible quest.

  • Mando reunited unexpectedly with Grogu, aka "Baby Yoda"— who'd made an interesting choice, choosing Mando's gift of Beskar steel armor over the Jedi lightsaber. Other Jedi said it was tantamount to choosing war over enlightenment. BTW, I call BULLSHIT on that craptastic turd of writing. Grogu chose protection over a literal weapon. Choosing the weapon would be choosing war. Choosing the armor is choosing defense against aggression.


That's a lot! It's almost more than everything worth writing about Boba Fett in his own dang series.
canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
So, how did my "Taxing and Relaxing" weekend go? Well, other than that soak in the hot tub Saturday morning I posted about, there wasn't anything special in the relaxing category. I did take it easy around the house. That's a valid form of relaxation after 6 busy days of travel ending last Monday night.

In terms of taxing I finished my 2022 taxes. They took less time than I thought. That's because (a) I didn't have any new forms or situations this year so I was already familiar with all the gotchas I'd have to watch out for, and (b) I continue to settle in to the relationship my partner, TurboTax, allows with me.

My emotionally abusive relationship with TurboTax (Feb 2023)

I also started on my 2023 taxes. I've quipped before that one of the reasons tax time isn't so onerous for me is that I start 12 months early. What does that mean? Well, it doesn't mean that I'm pre-filling in forms a year in advance. I can't! Not only won't I know any of the numbers for another 12 months, but the forms won't even be published for probably 10 more months.

What I am doing is forecasting what my taxes will be. I've built a spreadsheet to estimate income, deductions, withholdings, and taxes due. I use the spreadsheet throughout the year to ensure that my withholdings are in line with what I'll ultimately owe in taxes. That lets me avoid the shocker of owing several thousands of dollars on tax day or the disappointment of finding that I've given the government a huge interest-free loan in the form of a massive tax refund.


canyonwalker: wiseguy (Default)
Yesterday was the Superbowl, the biggest sports and TV event of the year in the US. I feel almost guilty I didn't watch (I went hiking instead) because apparently it was a nail-biter and— most importantly— the USA won for an unbelievable 57th straight year!

U-S-A! U-S-A!

USA Wins World Championship for 57th Straight Year! (Feb 2023)

Of course, it helps that this "world" championship sportsball game is only open to USA teams. 🤷

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