canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
In the news yesterday was announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. The deal, brokered by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, would see Israeli hostages held in Gaza returned and a number of Palestinian prisoners in Israel released in the first of three phases. The first phase would also involve Israel withdrawing its troops from most of Gaza and allowing humanitarian aid to flood in. Example news coverage: CNN.com article, 15 Jan 2025.

One might wonder while hearing this objectively good news, Why now? What took so long? This war, now in its 16th month, was instigated by Hamas's surprise October 7 attack on Israel killing 1,400 people and taking as hostages over 100 people, most of whom were civilians. One ceasefire was attempted over a year ago; it lasted less than a week. And the framework agreed to yesterday is one US negotiators in the Biden administration first proposed last May. They've been working on getting acceptance for 8 months.

So why now? Why after 16 months of grinding war and significant humanitarian crisis, and after 8 months of negotiation on the same framework? Well, first, such negotiations are never fast. The sides have got to fight it out until their positions, and future possibilities, become clear enough. Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz famously said, with slight paraphrasing, "War is diplomacy by other means." But still, why now? What changed recently to get the parties to shift their form of diplomacy from guns and bombs to words and handshakes? To me it's three things:

1. Hamas's military support has been significantly degraded. Destroying Hamas's own means of making war and launching terrorist attacks has a constant in the conflict since its start. Even six months ago a lot of it had been destroyed... and what was left was very well hidden. But what's really changed in the past few months is that Hamas's allies have suffered major losses. Hezbollah lost hundreds of its leaders in a carefully orchestrated, intelligence-driven attack by Israel a few months ago. You may remember that as the one with the exploding pagers. And walkie-talkies. Then last month rebels swiftly ousted Syrian leader Bashar Assad, who fled to Russia. The common denominator behind all three of these— Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad— is that they've been propped up by Iran. Iran has lost significant resources and international standing as its clients have been beaten. Plus, tough international sanctions against Iran have continued to bite. The bottom line of Iran having fewer proxies and less money to throw at them is that Hamas military leaders now no longer see themselves being as capable of achieving anything, even their leaders' personal survival, through continued war.

2. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a stronger position domestically. It's been charged many times over the past umpteen months that one reason Israel reached a ceasefire agreement is because it doesn't want one. While that statement on its face may seem like a tautology, what it's pointing to is Netanyahu's precarious position in Israeli politics. He's been clinging onto power by a small margin and will face prosecution on corruption charges once he's no longer in power. Thus he's kept the country in a state of war, many allege, because the active war blunts his opponents' push to remove him. And he's held onto a slim governing majority that includes far-right parties that are war-mongers. With recent successes such as that exploding-pager victory over Hezbollah, and Assad's fall in Syria, Netanyahu is enjoying broader support at him. He finally has enough political margin to risk crossing his far-right coalition members.

3. The President Trump Wildcard. One thing I wondered right away when I heard news of the ceasefire agreement yesterday morning was why this thing negotiated by President Biden's envoys was coming to fruition only in the last few days of his administration. Was "Get it done before Trump comes in" a factor? Indeed, president-elect Trump claimed credit for the agreement on his Truth Social media platform even before President Biden announced it officially in a news conference. But did Trump really do anything? I'd say yes and no. No, he didn't participate in the negotiations directly. His people were involved at the very end, as part of the Biden team's commitment to a smooth handover— something, I'll note, Trump and his team absolutely did not do in January 2020— but they certainly weren't involved in the 8 months of negotiating it took to get to yesterday's agreement. And Trump's personal contribution was his fear factor. As he's signaled unconditional support for Israel throughout his campaign, called for even tougher actions against Hamas, and rejected all concerns about humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Hamas's leadership had to realize that making a deal under Biden was their last, best chance.

Update: Even as I posted this journal entry, the ceasefire deal was already getting wobbly with threatened resignations from Netanyahu's coalition and ongoing attacks.


canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race for the 2024 election. He announced this morning he's ending his run for reelection. He endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for nomination as the Democratic party candidate.

Biden's move comes after weeks of the mainstream news media writing his political obituary. He showed poorly in the presidential debate on June 27, failing to land any rhetorical hits on Donald Trump and occasionally looking like a deer in the headlights. Nevermind that Biden continued to show a firm grasp on a variety of world events and how government and modern technology actually work, unlike Trump whose frequent rally speeches are ongoing word-salads with lengthy descents into nonsensical rants about things like sharks and the fact that batteries can't be put in a vehicle. (It's surprising Elon Musk endorsed him so strongly days after that.) A few billionaire donors turned against Biden, and "Is this the end?" was all the press could seem to write about for weeks.

The Republican party ultimately got in line behind an election-denying openly racist convicted felon and rapist who fomented a violent insurrection against the US Congress and his own vice president on January 6, 2020. But Biden had a weak debate performance 3½ weeks ago. Yeah, that's totally worse.

Look, I don't think Biden was the best candidate ever. I've written before about the problem of older leaders staying in political leadership long past the point where their political skills are showing to be badly out of date. Was Biden's mind also slipping? I'm not sure, as I don't trust most the publicized claims that it was. Everybody making that claim has ulterior motives. That's not to say they're wrong, just that there's reasonable suspicion about various personal motivations. But for anyone arguing that Biden was no longer mentally qualified, have you looked at the other guy?

Well, Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee now. I don't think she's the best candidate ever, either. But again, look at the other guy. Harris in 2024!

canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
President Joe Biden delivered the annual State of the Union address on Tuesday evening. I'm not sure I've ever watched a SOTU live before. Usually I figure I'll just read the highlights the next morning. This time I decided to stream it on my laptop computer while I was cooking and eating dinner.

Overall the president's message was upbeat. He hit three themes repeatedly: 1) We're actually doing reasonably well, all things considered. 2) But there are still clear problems we need to fix— so "Let's finish the job." And 3) For all the gnashing of teeth about a politically divided country we actually can get things done, and have gotten things done, bilaterally.

There were a few times the president slipped on his words. That's unfortunate because the right will pounce on them as indicative of some secret agenda accidentally revealed. The truth is far simpler: Joe Biden has suffered a stuttering problem since childhood. Him tripping on words occasionally is not a sign that he's stupid, uninformed, or lying. It's a condition he was born with, one that's shared by an estimated 3 million Americans.

The highlight of the speech was when Biden went "off script" to respond to hecklers. He accused Republicans of proposing cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Many shouted "Liar!" and other things arguing that wasn't true. Biden insisted he has the receipts. I agree; I saw the proposals from a few GOP members in Congress in the news a few weeks ago, too. But rather than just leave the interruption at "No we didn't/Yes you did" Biden engaged in a bit of real-time deal making. "So we're agreeing that Social Security is off the books?" he prompted. (This was a minor word slip; the proper colloquial phrase was off the table.)

This was a great bit of extemporaneous speaking. The president took an interruption, meant by his opponents to subtract from his speech, and turned the tables to make it an added win in his column. It's doubly nice because Biden's opponents like to paint him as old, doddering, and incapable. Here Biden displayed a benefit of his age and experience.

Decades ago politicians engaged in actual debate when speaking. There's still debate today, but it's more commonly an exchange of one-sided salvos, buttressed by teleprompters and made-for-TV sets. Biden's been in politics for decades. He drew on his old-school experience to engage critics in meaningful repartee.

As a technical matter, technical in the sense of public speaking skills, Biden demonstrated a critical point about preparing for a speech. You don't memorize your speech, you internalize your speech. The difference is when you memorize it, if something interrupts you you may lose your place and stumble. You go off script and it's bad. When you internalize your speech, interruptions don't faze you so bad. You can extemporize. And if you're really good, you can flip the tables on people interrupting you and trying to play "Gotcha!"

Update: More extra-curricular activities from the SOTU: Mitt Romney rebukes George Santos for his lying ways.


canyonwalker: coronavirus (coronavirus)
President Joe Biden announced yesterday (30 Jan 2023) that he intends to end the Covid-19 national and public health emergencies on May 11. Biden's move comes only a few weeks after he last extended the emergency on Jan. 11. What's changed in 19 days? His move appears to have been prompted by bills introduced in the Republican-controlled Congress to force an end to the emergency. Though such bills were unlikely to become law— the Democrat-majority Senate likely wouldn't have approved them, and the president could veto them if they did— Biden's move is seen as giving cover to Democrats in Congress who wish to avoid being forced to make a "show" vote.

What actually changes as a result of ending the emergencies in May? Very little, it turns out. In terms of public health policy, masks and other public health restrictions have been off the table for well over a year at this point. In terms of posture, Biden already announced the pandemic is basically over a year ago, as well. In terms of public perception, most of the public already considered it over— largely ignoring public health recommendations such as wearing masks and minimizing time among indoors crowds— even before that.

What the general public will notice as a change after May 11 is that certain things won't be free anymore. The program providing free at-home Covid tests will end. Tests in clinics will no longer be free. Some Covid treatments, e.g. monoclonal antibodies, will no longer be free. At least Covid vaccines will still be free. Those are funded by a different federal law.

The end of these emergencies was announced while the death toll due to Covid is still 500/day. 500 seems like not such a large number, right? Certainly it's way lower than the 3,000 deaths per day we saw during the worse surges. But do the math.... 500/day is over 180,000/year. That's around 5x as many deaths as from influenza. 180k/year still puts Covid as the #4 overall cause of death among adults in the US. And those figures are without another huge spike like the Omicron surge we saw a year ago.

canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
President Biden on Thursday pardoned all prior federal offenses of simple marijuana possession. It's widely seen as a first step toward decriminalization of marijuana. Example news coverage: CNN.com article, 6 Oct 2022.

"Wow, this must affect a lot of people," I thought at first. I've been hearing from marijuana legalization advocates for decades that some 90% of all people in federal prison are there on nonviolent drug convictions. So I skimmed through news articles such as the one linked above to find how many people would be freed, and it's... zero. "Officials said there are currently no Americans serving prison time solely on federal simple marijuana possession charges," the article reports. The government estimates, though, that there are 6,500 people convicted of such crimes in the past.

So where are all these nonviolent simple drug possession offenders, this supposed 90% of all convicts, being imprisoned? They're not in state prisons. Ten years ago I asked a brother-in-law of mine who's a state prosecutor about the 90% statistic. He just laughed. "If that were true, given the short sentences that crime carries, marijuana possession would be 98% of my office's cases. It's more like zero. Maybe that 90% is the feds."

Well, the numbers from drug legalization advocates are clearly hokum. (Is anyone really surprised?) But that doesn't mean Biden's pardon is wrong. I'm in favor of correcting government drug policy to be rational and evidence based. Marijuana was miscategorized by the federal government decades ago, contrary to available facts and for openly racist reasons. Biden is working on changing that, too. He says he will instruct the HHS and Attorney General to review the facts and set new policy as appropriate. We'll see how long that takes.
canyonwalker: coronavirus (coronavirus)
It's in the news today that President Joe Biden has tested positive for Covid-19.

"It's About Time," read one news headline.

WAIT, WHAT?!

The article explained that even for President Biden, who is fully vaccinated and twice boosted (and, I would add, receives a level of medical care that surpasses practically anyone else in the US), it was still just a matter of "When, not if" he'd get Covid-19.

Sadly, that's where we are with Covid-19 today. It's when you get it, not if you get it.

Well, I haven't gotten Covid-19 yet. I know the chances are high I will sometime, even though like President Biden I am fully vaccinated and twice boosted. Though I don't have to travel as frequently as he does or meet as many people f2f as he does. ...Then again, I don't have a whole phalanx of security around me to screen who gets close to me. (I wonder, does the Biden White House do rapid-test parties every day like the Trump White House did in 2020?)

Anyway, President Biden seems to be doing reasonably well so far. After testing positive he started taking Paxlovid. He's got mild symptoms and is working remotely from the White House. At 79 years old, though, he's at higher risk of trouble than a lot of the rest of us. Best wishes on a speedy recovery!
canyonwalker: I'm holding a 3-foot-tall giant cheese grater - Let's make America grate again! (politics)
President Biden today is catching a lot of heat for, basically, speaking plainly about the situation with Russia massing troops on Ukraine's border.

He made apparently two missteps in public comments. One, that he thinks it likely Russia will invade Ukraine. Two, that the US and EU will respond strongly to a "major" incursion— implying, by omission, that a minor incursion would be tolerated.

(1) is a statement that I think anybody who's paying attention to the situation would have to agree is true. Putin has been building toward this for years with actions out in the open— including, not least of all, actually invading Ukraine in 2014 and annexing Crimea, which Russia still holds. In recent months he's set up all the same conditions all over again, plus has apparently attacked Ukraine's civilian infrastructure via information warfare. Sadly this is a situation where plain talk freaks people out because only vapid happy talk, like "We're going to stop Putin," is deemed palatable.

(2) is an accurate statement of realpolitik. Again, not the vapid happy talk people have become conditioned to expect, but a sober assessment of what likely what will happen if/when (1) comes to pass. I mean, again, Russia annexing Crimea already happened 7 years ago. We've got experience to draw from, here. Western democracies deplored the military attack and enacted a bunch of sanctions, initially. In the ensuring months and years most removed those sanctions and resumed doing business with Russia whenever there was a nontrivial benefit to them in doing so. Plus, outside North America and the EU few nations if any cared enough even to impose ineffectual sanctions. People need to understand that currently there's no meaningful deterrent to Russian aggression.

canyonwalker: coronavirus (coronavirus)
In speech today at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Maryland, just a week since the emergent Omicron strain of the Coronavirus started causing fits of panic worldwide, President Joe Biden outlined an approach to fighting Covid-19 this winter. “It doesn’t include shutdowns or lockdowns," he began by saying, "But widespread vaccinations and boosters and testing a lot more." He proposed making tests available for free at clinics and for home use. He also reemphasized the importance of getting vaccinated. Less than 60% of the US are fully vaccinated at Covid-19, one of the lowest rates among wealthy nations. Example news coverage: Reuters article 2 Dec 2021, CNBC article 2 Dec 2021, video of Biden's speech on YouTube.

“We are in a better position than we were a year ago to fight Covid-19,” Biden said. Indeed that's true as a year ago we had 0% of the population vaccinated; vaccine rollout didn't begin 'til just under a year ago. 60% today isn't great but it's better than nothing. And let's review what happened a year ago. In January 2021 I blogged about the holiday travel-related surge we saw starting at pretty much this time one year ago. Here's a chart:

Holiday Covid-19 Spike One Year Ago
Holiday Spike in new Covid-19 Cases (Jan 2021)

Yeah, it'll be good not to have a high spike in cases like that.
canyonwalker: I'm holding a 3-foot-tall giant cheese grater - Let's make America grate again! (politics)
The Senate on Tuesday passed a $1.1 trillion plan for investing in America's infrastructure. It contains spending for everything from the relatively obvious traditional infrastructure such as crumbling roads and bridges, aging rail and transit systems, and crowded ports and airports; to less traditionally thought-of infrastructure such as getting broadband Internet to poor people who don't have access to it today. The bill needs to be approved in the House, then will go to President Biden for signature. Example news coverage: AP News article 10 Aug 2021, CNN.com article 10 Aug 2021.

This action in the Senate is a long time coming. In the 2016 presidential campaign candidate Donald Trump promised massive investment in America's infrastructure, mirroring a promise by candidate Hillary Clinton. With both candidates, and presumably both parties, behind it it seemed like a bipartisan sure thing. During Trump's presidency, though, it became obvious that infrastructure, like so many things in Trumpworld, was simply a talking point, not an action point.

"Infrastructure Week" became a running joke during the Trump administration. Trump repeated his infrastructure promise countless times as president. "Infrastructure Week" was seemingly always next week, though, as he never showed any interest in actual policy, just 3-second sound bites and angry tweets. Moreover, Republicans in Congress, who for Trump's first two years in office controlled both the House and the Senate, never offered an infrastructure bill nor acted on proposals being made by Democrat minority members.

Now with Democrat President Biden in office and (slim) Democrat majorities in both the House and Senate, we finally get an infrastructure bill. And it's even gotten bipartisan support in the Senate. In a vote of 69-30, nineteen Republicans crossed party lines to vote for it.

Don't mistake that this is really a Republican priority, though. Republican leadership has been quite transparent that these 19 yea votes were strictly a political calculation. They voted on a bill they thought was watered down as much as possible yet just good enough for Democrats to blunt their willingness to eliminate the filibuster rule in the Senate. If the filibuster were eliminated Dems would be able to pass a much larger bill— their original proposal was over $3 trillion— with a simple majority vote. Indeed you'll note, because people like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tell you, the 19 yea votes were all from senators not facing reelection next year. Republicans know they can't sell this bill to their base, because the Republican party doesn't actually want new spending or programs, even for publicly popular infrastructure, so they have their members facing the least reelection risk take the hit now to avoid larger losses later.

Oh, and Donald Trump, who kept promising "Infrastructure Week" during his presidency? He's released almost daily press releases (no longer tweets since he's banned from Twitter) savaging this bill and the Republicans who voted in favor of it. That just shows it was never about doing anything for infrastructure, it's only ever been about getting favorable headlines in the right-wing press.

canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
President Biden is not bidin' his time. Immediately after yesterday's inauguration ceremony he went to work in the White House, signing a slew of executive orders.


Image from Newsweek

Among the orders President Biden signed on Day One— not even his first full day in office yet— are:
  • Stopping construction of the border wall on the US-Mexico border
  • Requiring mask wearing on all federal property (offices, courthouses, national parks, etc.) and encouraging states and localities to do the same
  • Rejoining the Paris Agreement on climate change
...and a whole raft of others. See, for example, this Newsweek article (updated 21 Jan 2021).

After a busy Day One, President Biden is not jetting off to his golf course to relax or hiding in his residence watching opinion shows on Fox and tweeting their phony conspiracy theories. Day Two is more work for Biden. A lot more of it. As he and his team dig deeper into establishing a better Covid-19 plan, news coming out is that they're finding there isn't even a plan today. Twelve months Trump has known about Covid... 6 months he's been telling us a vaccine is right around the corner... over a month since vaccines have actually come out... all while the US death toll climbed past 400,000... and Trump and his administration did basically nothing to get ready for it.


canyonwalker: Sullivan, a male golden eagle at UC Davis Raptor Center (Golden Eagle)
Today was Inauguration Day in the US. President Joseph Biden was sworn in as this country's 46th president. In a return to normalcy from the crazy past 4 years, the (new) president said nothing ridiculous, bigoted, false, or hopelessly self-absorbed. Several former presidents joined to honor him in the ceremony. Notable, though not surprising, in his absence was the most recent former president. "Number 45" left town this morning, slinking away like a dog with its tail between its legs.
canyonwalker: Cthulhu voted - touch screen! (i voted)
Today is December 15. It is 42 days after the election for President in the US, among many other races. It is only today that some elected leaders from the Republican Party, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, acknowledged that former Vice President Joe Biden won the election. And the rest of the Republicans? Many of still aren't acknowledging it. News article: CNN, 15 Dec 2020.

Granted, the vote was close enough in enough states that it wasn't possible to determine the winner right away. It took a few days. But by November 7 the result was clear. Republicans hide their absurd claims behind a technicality that the result wasn't "official" until the Electoral College met and voted Monday. That's a silly technicality. And it's downright monstrous in the context of President Trump and his election campaign suing in dozens of jurisdictions to overturn the results of the election with outrageous conspiracy theories supported by zero plausible evidence. The most recent suit, swatted down by the Supreme Court last week, was joined by more than half the Republican members of Congress.

"But he's got a right to sue in court!" many say in Trump's defense. That's an evil canard. First, people don't have a limitless right to sue in court. There are laws and precedents again malicious use of the legal system. The Trump campaign's laughably absurd claims and transparently dishonest witnesses are malicious. Second, consider the scale. This isn't just one crackpot filing pointless lawsuits because he can. It is the President of the United States, joined by the governors of more than two dozen states and over 100 members of Congress. This is not just "Oh, they have a right to sue"; this is an attempted state coup happening in plain sight.

Oh, and even though state and federal courts in the US have acted as the last line of defense for democracy, Trump, through his use of Twitter and friendly media outlets, has convinced more than 80% of the people who voted for him in November that Biden's win was a sham result. That's tens of millions of voters conned into believing up is down. That is how there's an attempted state coup happening slowly in plain sight!

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